SW Sumatra: Invest 99S

[wyq614]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5S 92.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 95.3E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, AN APPARENT SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 24-HOUR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION REMAINS DECOUPLED AND SHEARED
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER,
THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO DEPICTS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LLCC THAT HAS NOTICEABLY WRAPPED TIGHTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 03 DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD DIRECTION CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE OF LOWER VWS. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IN EXCESS OF 28 CELSIUS AS
VERIFIED BY NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS, REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR TC
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, SUPPORTED BY A 081459Z
ASCAT PRODUCT, ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

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