ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922010.invest
FSTDA
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040
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201006122045
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010061218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010061118, , BEST, 0, 60N, 275W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061200, , BEST, 0, 61N, 284W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061206, , BEST, 0, 61N, 293W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061212, , BEST, 0, 62N, 301W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 310W, 20, 1012, DB,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[wxman57]

Don't you ever leave your PC, cycloneye? I just saw this invest arrive in my email and 10 seconds later checked here and you've already posted it.

[Gustywind]

Don't you ever leave your PC, cycloneye? I just saw this invest arrive in my email and 10 seconds later checked here and you've already posted it.

Hey you know what... this guy is amazing, he's not outside the Cyclone but always inside he's Cycloneye . He provides us many links infos impressive and awesome he's a SUPERMAN for sure:D . Even in the storm Luis is there and back for this 2010 hurricane season CONGRATS!

[wxman57]

It doesn't look like it has too much of a chance, particularly as it nears the Caribbean. That TUTT means business out there. Once the disturbance moves a bit west and north it'll begin encountering increasingly stronger WSW-W upper-level winds. The Euro definitely sees the shear across the NE Caribbean (25-30 kts). The little orange blob just NE of the Caribbean in the image below is the disturbance. Note the lower-left shear panel and compare positions:



12Z GFS has westerly shear over it as it nears the Caribbean, too, but only 15-20 kts. Something to keep an eye on, for sure. And it'll likely bring some heavy thunderstorms to the islands by Friday regardless of whether or not it develops.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I donno about this storm.

The TUTT and Shear seem like it will hinder the system BUT it will be over 85-90 degree waters.
Bsed on that...my forecast is below.

0 Hours-I-Unknown
6 Hours-I-30MPH
12 Hours-I-35MPH
24 Hours-I-35MPH
36 Hours-I-35MPH

I think it might make TS before hitting the shear, then weaken to TD, then redevelop.

[Nimbus]

Its not a fish so hope the shear forecasts hold.

[Gustywind]

Here we are with 92L...

[JTD]

Here we go,

First true candidate of the year to potentially get a name. I don't expect much from this invest atm but I do think it noteworthy that the Eastern Atlantic is already active. The E. Atl. isn't exactly known for its June storms.

[Gustywind]

[Hurricane Andrew]

the SHIPS intensity model has it up to 85MPH by 72 hours.

YEAH RIGHT!

[xironman]

It has some time and latitude to gain before the shear can really effect it. I think the water it is over is 29c.

[KWT]

I actually can't believe we have an invest so far east so early, just one more sign of just how favourable conditions are aloft at the moment in the E.Atlantic compared to normal.

Anyway, I think this one has a shot before it makes it towards the higher shear levels but its not going to have long to do something before it hits some of that higher shear.

Going to be a big CV season if this is anything to go by...

[KatDaddy]

Off to the races.....Invest 92L. Very early for a Cape Verde Invest.

[Vortex]

And so it begins....

[KWT]

Off to the races.....Invest 92L. Very early for a Cape Verde Invest.

Its amazing to even have an invest this far east at this time of year, we aren't even in mid June yet...

[Vortex]

After analyzing some of the Hi-Res satellite images this evening it certainly appears as though this system is becoming better organized. In fact latest images clearly depict deep convection firing over what appears to be the developing center.

[cycloneye]

Maybe something is not working fine at NRL as still Invest 92L doesn't appear there.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[tailgater]

Did anyone else notice how this Invest seems to be all by it's self out there. Usally this time of year and even later, systems this far south have a really hard time breaking away from the ITCZ.

[Cookie]

Maybe something is not working fine at NRL as still Invest 92L doesn't appear there.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

did we imagine it?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My new forcast

0 Hours-I-25MPH
6 Hours-I-30MPH
12 Hours-I-30MPH
24 Hours-I-35MPH
48 Hours-TD-35MPH
72 Hours-TS-50MPH
96 Hours-TS-40MPH
120 Hours-TD030MPH