ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

[cycloneye]

I can't believe the intensity but there is the information from the BAM models.

WHXX01 KWBC 122048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2048 UTC SAT JUN 12 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100612 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100612 1800 100613 0600 100613 1800 100614 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 6.3N 31.0W 6.9N 33.3W 7.9N 35.5W 8.9N 37.7W
BAMD 6.3N 31.0W 6.7N 33.9W 7.3N 36.7W 7.9N 39.5W
BAMM 6.3N 31.0W 6.8N 33.8W 7.5N 36.4W 8.2N 38.8W
LBAR 6.3N 31.0W 6.6N 33.3W 7.4N 36.1W 8.4N 39.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 33KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 33KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100614 1800 100615 1800 100616 1800 100617 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.1N 39.9W 12.0N 44.9W 13.3N 50.2W 14.4N 55.2W
BAMD 8.7N 42.2W 10.2N 47.5W 11.8N 52.3W 12.9N 55.8W
BAMM 8.9N 41.2W 10.1N 46.3W 11.2N 51.9W 11.8N 56.9W
LBAR 9.5N 42.3W 12.8N 48.2W 15.8N 51.3W 16.3N 53.0W
SHIP 55KTS 73KTS 75KTS 73KTS
DSHP 55KTS 73KTS 75KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 6.3N LONCUR = 31.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 6.1N LONM12 = 29.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 6.0N LONM24 = 27.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[JTD]

Does Ships usually bust pretty badly intensity wise?

[cycloneye]

SHIP intensity forecast shows why it intensifies a lot,shear is not prohibitive.

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL922010  06/12/10  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    24    28    33    44    55    67    73    75    75    73    73
V (KT) LAND       20    21    24    28    33    44    55    67    73    75    75    73    73
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    22    24    26    32    38    44    49    52    54    54    54

SHEAR (KT)        10     5     4     7    10    12    13    11    15    13    14    14     6
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     1     0     1    -1    -2    -2    -8    -6    -7    -7    -7    -4
SHEAR DIR         60   101    76    51    94   109   135   159   166   207   207   261   259
SST (C)         28.6  28.5  28.3  28.1  28.0  27.8  27.8  28.0  28.5  28.7  28.8  29.0  29.2
POT. INT. (KT)   146   145   142   139   138   135   135   138   145   148   150   153   156
ADJ. POT. INT.   153   156   151   146   144   139   138   142   150   154   154   156   158
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.2 -53.4 -52.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     8     8     9     9    10     9    10
700-500 MB RH     78    78    78    73    76    74    72    71    67    64    62    60    55
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    29    32    27    21    18    13    13    -3   -18   -38   -31   -18     4
200 MB DIV        79    96    88   109   145   146   155   110    65    44    33    13     7
LAND (KM)       1368  1345  1279  1242  1222  1240  1221  1033   870   737   653   632   460
LAT (DEG N)      6.3   6.6   6.8   7.2   7.5   8.2   8.9   9.5  10.1  10.7  11.2  11.5  11.8
LONG(DEG W)     31.0  32.4  33.8  35.1  36.4  38.8  41.2  43.6  46.3  49.1  51.9  54.4  56.9
STM SPEED (KT)    11    14    14    13    13    12    12    13    14    14    13    12    12
HEAT CONTENT      53    50    39    39    40    38    37    45    65    71    80    85    99

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/  9      CX,CY:  -8/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  619  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  58.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.   0.   5.  13.  21.  27.  33.  37.  40.  42.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   6.   6.   4.   3.   2.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   6.   6.   5.   3.   0.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   9.  11.  13.  12.  11.  10.   8.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   4.   8.  13.  24.  35.  47.  53.  55.  55.  53.  53.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010     INVEST 06/12/10  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.3 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 103.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 129.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  84.0 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.6
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.6 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  44.2 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    58% is   4.6 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    38% is   4.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    21% is   4.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010     INVEST 06/12/2010  00 UTC **
TIME        0-12h   0-24h   0-36h   0-48h       EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model)
CLIMO (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB  (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY



[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if 92L becomes Alex in a few days.

[Swimdude]

^ I would be. That far out in the Atlantic in the middle of June? We would all be surprised.

[xironman]

SHIP intensity forecast shows why it intensifies a lot,shear is not prohibitive.

An earlier look at the GFS seem to show the upper anti cyclone retrograding with it. Much poleward movement though and it is shear city.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This will be interesting for sure.

[KWT]

Its going to have to stay quite far south to have any hope, or the shear is going to need to be lower then some of the models are forecasting.

That being said a short TD/TS is possibly from this system, like we saw with Ana in 1979, indeed given conditions out there are actually good I certainly wouldn't rule out this being our first system, if nothing else.

[Ptarmigan]

^ I would be. That far out in the Atlantic in the middle of June? We would all be surprised.

Never say never. Normally, I would say the same thing, but conditions are better this time around.

[ROCK]

I would be surprise either PT...Dean and Felix were early birds....Alex on the way IMO.....funny how the GFS only showed a wave out of this for the past 4 days. CMC picked it up first then the NOGAPS...

[johngaltfla]

Show time. If it moves a little further north, I agree, it is going to become Alex.

[Ptarmigan]

I would be surprise either PT...Dean and Felix were early birds....Alex on the way IMO.....funny how the GFS only showed a wave out of this for the past 4 days. CMC picked it up first then the NOGAPS...

Come to think of it, 2005 had not many Cape Verde hurricanes, besides Emily, but they were rather early in the season.

[cycloneye]

In a half an hour GFDL and HWRF will release their first run.Lets see what will be the intensity and tracks.

[ROCK]

I would be surprise either PT...Dean and Felix were early birds....Alex on the way IMO.....funny how the GFS only showed a wave out of this for the past 4 days. CMC picked it up first then the NOGAPS...

Come to think of it, 2005 had not many Cape Verde hurricanes, besides Emily, but they were rather early in the season.

07 Dean and Felix come to mind...think they were in July though..

[johngaltfla]

In a half an hour GFDL and HWRF will release their first run.Lets see what will be the the intensity and tracks.

Thanks cyclone. I can check back later on. A named storm would start to validate my worst fears about this season, even if we have a lot of fish.

[ROCK]

I would be surprise either PT...Dean and Felix were early birds....Alex on the way IMO.....funny how the GFS only showed a wave out of this for the past 4 days. CMC picked it up first then the NOGAPS...

Come to think of it, 2005 had not many Cape Verde hurricanes, besides Emily, but they were rather early in the season.

technically most are CV disturbances that did not develope until they hit the monsoon trof in the carib that year...

[Vortex]

Looking forward to the GFDL and HRWF first runs!!

[ROCK]

In a half an hour GFDL and HWRF will release their first run.Lets see what will be the the intensity and tracks.

Thanks cyclone. I can check back later on. A named storm would start to validate my worst fears about this season, even if we have a lot of fish.

John, I know how you feel bro...any cane in the GOM this year will paint the beaches black in FL...

[Swimdude]

^ I would be. That far out in the Atlantic in the middle of June? We would all be surprised.

Never say never. Normally, I would say the same thing, but conditions are better this time around.

I definitely did not say "never."

[Hurricane Andrew]

HWRF is out! Well, out to 18 Hours.


Rapid Intensification dudes!