EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

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invest_ep922010.invest
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201006141351
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010061412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922010
EP, 92, 2010061412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1048W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[bob rulz]

I was wondering when this would be named.

There's been a pretty good flare-up of convection around this system in the overnight hours, although there's no evidence of a LLC yet as far as my untrained eye can see.

[HURAKAN]

396
ABPZ20 KNHC 141745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IS MOVING LITTLE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

First model plots for 92E.

WHXX01 KMIA 141815
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON JUN 14 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922010) 20100614 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100614 1800 100615 0600 100615 1800 100616 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 105.2W 14.3N 105.8W 14.6N 106.8W 15.0N 107.8W
BAMD 13.9N 105.2W 14.1N 106.2W 14.5N 107.4W 14.9N 108.8W
BAMM 13.9N 105.2W 14.1N 105.9W 14.4N 106.9W 14.6N 107.9W
LBAR 13.9N 105.2W 14.3N 105.9W 14.7N 106.9W 15.3N 108.1W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100616 1800 100617 1800 100618 1800 100619 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 108.9W 15.2N 111.9W 14.9N 115.1W 13.7N 118.5W
BAMD 15.4N 110.6W 16.3N 114.8W 16.8N 118.8W 16.8N 123.7W
BAMM 14.8N 109.2W 15.0N 112.6W 14.7N 116.3W 13.7N 120.7W
LBAR 16.0N 109.7W 17.5N 113.6W 19.6N 118.0W 21.6N 121.0W
SHIP 34KTS 36KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 34KTS 36KTS 36KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 105.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 104.3W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 103.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

SHIPS not really that keen on this system developing...the ECM and GFS also not at all keen on developing this system either it seems...

[Ivanhater]

Wow. Nogaps really bombs this out along with the GFS and Euro..at least we will have a hurricane to track soon

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[srainhoutx]

I suspect the EPAC will be worth watching regarding development. MJO pulse appears to be having some effect as well IMHO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD FOR A FEW
HUNDRED MILES. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

[gatorcane]

This system appears to have model support from some models I have looked at including ECMWF, GFS, and CMC. Lots of convection currently but doesn't seem too organized yet.

[NDG]

This system appears to have model support from some models I have looked at including ECMWF, GFS, and CMC. Lots of convection currently but doesn't seem too organized yet.

Is nothing but a naked swirl right now, strong easterly shear is not letting convection stick close to the weak LLC, give it a day or two.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Cyclenall]

The system that the models are bombing is not this but something else later on that comes from the eastern area. There are several models showing something close to a CAT2 in my estimation in about 120 hours or so.

[Brent]

Poof!

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

The system that the models are bombing is not this but something else later on that comes from the eastern area. There are several models showing something close to a CAT2 in my estimation in about 120 hours or so.

Yeah this system is not the system some of the models are really developing strongly in the EPAC though it is a little difficult to tell.

[HURAKAN]

087
ABPZ20 KNHC 151148
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Back with a brand new rap!

[HURAKAN]

TCFP in 48 hours

[KWT]

Nice little convective burst, not exactly moving very far is it right now!

Looking at the ECM it is possible it may be developing this region, esp if it remains slow moving over the next 48hrs, if so it becomes quite a long lived system according to the 0z ECM.