EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006151647
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010061512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932010
EP, 93, 2010061512, , BEST, 0, 143N, 956W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[srainhoutx]

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006151737
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010061512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932010
EP, 93, 2010061500, , BEST, 0, 141N, 954W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2010061506, , BEST, 0, 142N, 955W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2010061512, , BEST, 0, 143N, 956W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,



Update - I guess the pressure 0 mb was not cutting it!!!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPAC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED..THE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR HEAVY RAINS TO IMPACT AT LEAST SOME
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER TERRY

[HURAKAN]

Luis, you're seconds too late!!



Latest

[cycloneye]

First model plots by the BAMS for 93E forecast a strong tropical storm.

WHXX01 KMIA 151738
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1738 UTC TUE JUN 15 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932010) 20100615 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100615 1200 100616 0000 100616 1200 100617 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 95.6W 14.8N 96.2W 15.2N 97.3W 15.7N 98.9W
BAMD 14.3N 95.6W 14.7N 96.5W 15.0N 97.7W 15.4N 99.2W
BAMM 14.3N 95.6W 14.8N 96.3W 15.1N 97.4W 15.6N 99.0W
LBAR 14.3N 95.6W 14.8N 96.4W 15.4N 98.1W 16.2N 100.3W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100617 1200 100618 1200 100619 1200 100620 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 100.5W 16.9N 104.1W 17.4N 107.5W 17.6N 111.4W
BAMD 15.8N 101.0W 16.9N 105.1W 17.9N 109.7W 18.8N 114.4W
BAMM 16.0N 100.8W 16.7N 104.5W 17.3N 108.5W 17.6N 113.0W
LBAR 17.1N 102.9W 19.7N 108.8W 22.0N 113.4W 24.4N 115.8W
SHIP 50KTS 62KTS 61KTS 58KTS
DSHP 50KTS 62KTS 61KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 95.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 95.4W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 95.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

Could produce devastating rainfall if it follows this track

[bob rulz]

It looks a lot better organized than when I last looked at it last night. It looks like it's forming a pretty tight circulation on visible.

[HURAKAN]

197
WHXX01 KMIA 151846
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC TUE JUN 15 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932010) 20100615 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100615 1800 100616 0600 100616 1800 100617 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 95.6W 14.7N 96.3W 15.1N 97.7W 15.5N 99.3W
BAMD 14.3N 95.6W 14.6N 96.5W 14.9N 97.7W 15.2N 99.3W
BAMM 14.3N 95.6W 14.7N 96.3W 15.0N 97.6W 15.4N 99.3W
LBAR 14.3N 95.6W 14.7N 96.4W 15.3N 98.2W 16.2N 100.6W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 31KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 31KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100617 1800 100618 1800 100619 1800 100620 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 101.1W 16.6N 104.5W 16.9N 108.4W 16.9N 112.6W
BAMD 15.7N 101.3W 16.6N 105.4W 17.3N 110.3W 17.8N 115.6W
BAMM 15.7N 101.2W 16.2N 104.8W 16.5N 109.2W 16.3N 114.1W
LBAR 16.9N 103.1W 19.2N 109.4W 21.0N 114.4W 21.9N 118.0W
SHIP 53KTS 65KTS 64KTS 63KTS
DSHP 53KTS 65KTS 64KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 95.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 95.5W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 95.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Aquawind]

Hmmm.. this pickup in the EPAC has me thinking the MJO is moving towards the Atl basin as expected later this month.

[KWT]

Yeah it doesn't look too bad at all, and the conditions aren't too bad aloft either, though I would be worried if 92E developed and we got some shear from the outflow of the system...

However other then that and perhaps land interaction in the first 3 days or so...and the track really is a worry becuase of the rainfall we saw from Agatha and this isn't going to ease matters, esp thanks to its slow motion.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[bob rulz]

Yeah it doesn't look too bad at all, and the conditions aren't too bad aloft either, though I would be worried if 92E developed and we got some shear from the outflow of the system...

However other then that and perhaps land interaction in the first 3 days or so...and the track really is a worry becuase of the rainfall we saw from Agatha and this isn't going to ease matters, esp thanks to its slow motion.

The disturbance is well west of where Agatha made landfall.

[HURAKAN]

699
ABPZ20 KNHC 160530
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[KWT]

Yeah it doesn't look too bad at all, and the conditions aren't too bad aloft either, though I would be worried if 92E developed and we got some shear from the outflow of the system...

However other then that and perhaps land interaction in the first 3 days or so...and the track really is a worry becuase of the rainfall we saw from Agatha and this isn't going to ease matters, esp thanks to its slow motion.

The disturbance is well west of where Agatha made landfall.

Thats good news but Agatha threw quite a lot of rain out and the area this is in right now will have still got fairly decent falls from Agatha I'd have thought...

Anyway the NHC now upto 50% with this one. ECM not so keen on development now though.

[HURAKAN]

421
ABPZ20 KNHC 161149
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
DRIFTS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WEST TO ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM FROM THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN22 PGTW 160930
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351Z JUN 10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 151400)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 95.9W TO 15.8N 98.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 160530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 95.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 96.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO ORGAN-
IZE AND BUILD OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. A RECENT 160350Z
ASCAT PASS INDICATED TIGHT TURNING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE
ASCAT PASS TIME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SUR-
FACE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.7W.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

Code Red.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
DRIFTS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WEST TO ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.