ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[clfenwi]

For the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean.

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010062112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 632W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 645W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 128N, 659W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive

[SkeetoBite]

Grrr...

Exactly NOT what I wanted to see.

[KWT]

Nice area of convection, seems to be the same region that the ECM eventually develops...

Conditions look decent, esp if it can not lift up too quickly as shear is pretty low below 18N. I personally wouldn't be all that surprised if this is the first system of the Atl season myself.

[SFLcane]

[Gustywind]

Another Invest in June? it' s a joke

[Rockin4NOLA]

Quite impressive

Are those bands of clouds comiong of S. America part of the circulation?...wow...looks better than 92L thats for sure

[Frank2]

Ugh - but let's remember that 92L (which SHIPS "jumped all over" twice last week) was clobbered by the TUTT, so lettuce not get too excited over this latest data run...

And forget about banding over SA, instead look at those filaments of high cloud to the north and west - sure signs of very strong shear...

Today's the first day of Summer - we have a long way to go, folks, so don't exhaust yourself over every cloud blob out there...

LOL

[PTrackerLA]

Have a feeling this could be the real start to the season. Will be watching this one closely especially given what the Euro has been showing.

[KWT]

There is shear Frank, but the difference with 92L and 93L is this system is going to stay quite far south of the jet axis, therefore won't suffer the same fate as 92L in the near future.

This is going to need very careful watching!

I think if this system does develop the more likely track is eventually into the BoC/W.Gulf rather then where the ECM takes it, but we shall see!

[HURAKAN]

Another difference between 92L and 93L is that 93L is moving towards the prime development areas for this time of the year, WCAR and GOM

Remember in 2005 where both Arlene and Bret developed, WCAR and GOM.

[srainhoutx]

Another issue we need to watch is the Upper Ridge parked along the N/NW GOM. Although some guidance suggests the ridge to move out this coming weekend and is suggesting a trough/front to approach the Gulf, the ridge is very strong and climo suggests that guidance may be 'over doing' any trough/frontal activity this far S at this time of year. Just something to keep in mind.

[rockyman]

Based on the early visible loops, there does appear to be some lower-level vorticity developing just to the northeast of Bonaire

[KWT]

srainhoutx, I agree and thats part of the reason I think this could end up being a threat to the Yucatan down the line. Of course if it does develop a closed circulation it'll probably lift out somewhat.

As Hurakan said, its heading towards the prime region...

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is a very interesting system that I think could have a real shot at developing over the next several days. Where it eventually winds up is anybody's guess at this point, as it depends on way too many yet-to-be-seen factors, but I do think everyone along the Gulf Coast, the Yucatan Peninsula and the northern and northwestern Caribbean Islands needs to be on guard for the chance of some nasty weather over the next 5-10 days. Based on the 00z ECMWF, there is definitely *potential* that this could become a potent early season storm.

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[wx247]

Here is the latest TWO from the NHC concerning this area in question:

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

I'd like to see the GFS come on board first before getting too interested but clearly it is a very active region in terms of convection thus it needs watching at this time of year.

Will also be interesting to see what the hurricane models do with it when they run.

[Aquawind]

What really sux about these strong early season systems is the water will have plenty of time to reheat behind it for the meat of the season..

[Sanibel]

I think 93 is suffering the same fate as 92.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner mentions this in his morning email.

Changes and possible tropical concerns‏
From: Lindner, Jeffrey (Flood Control) (jeffrey.lindner@hcfcd.org)
Sent: Mon 6/21/10 8:24 AM

Tropics:

Active tropical waves over the eastern Caribbean Sea this morning are moving westward under the Bermuda ridge to their north. While disorganized at the moment, conditions are forecast to becoming increasingly favorable for development as the area reaches the western Caribbean Sea. Numerous forecast models show tropical cyclone formation late this week or this weekend in the western Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. The EURO and CMC are by far the most aggressive taking a strong TC into and through the Gulf of Mexico with landfalls aimed at the east-central Gulf coast, while the NOGAPS slowly tacks a system toward the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche and surprisingly the GFS shows nothing at all…only a few of its ensemble members even show anything. I will discount the EURO and CMC as being much too intense resulting in a rightward track over the Gulf. Will side instead with the weaker solution of the NOGAPS, but stronger than the GFS. HPC progs yesterday afternoon inserted a 1008mb closed low over the NW Caribbean this Saturday and moves it WNW to off the NW tip of the Yucatan this Sunday and this seems most reasonable at the moment. Forecasted steering patterns by this weekend favor a WNW to NW track of any tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico as low to mid level ridging develops over the SE US. Hopefully model run-to-run consistency will begin to improve with this system this week…obviously a close watch is needed on any developing tropical system in the Gulf this time of year and our local forecast may have significant changes by this weekend into next week depending on what transpires.