ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - ADVISORIES

[RL3AO]

WTNT31 KNHC 252159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004
MB. BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER WEAKENING OVER
LAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2200Z 16.5N 83.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
2200 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 83.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 252346
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

477
WTNT41 KNHC 260239
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN AN 0010 UTC
SSMIS PASS APPEARED DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS TILT IS CONSISTENT WITH AROUND 10 KT OF NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL
AND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE SAB DVORAK ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE
DEPRESSION REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS THEN
EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
STRONGER GFDL AND LGEM MODELS AND THE THE WEAKER HWRF AND SHIPS
MODELS BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST LONG-TERM
ESTIMATE IS 295/08. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN
36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AFTER IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY DAYS 3 TO 5 MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL NOT GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE TO INTERACT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST BUT THE REMAINS A ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST SPEED IS VERY SLOW BY DAY 5
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 16.7N 84.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.4N 85.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 18.4N 87.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 19.5N 89.1W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 28/0000Z 20.8N 90.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/0000Z 22.5N 92.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 93.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 24.5N 94.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Little to the left will probably continue.

[HURAKAN]

823
WTNT31 KNHC 260534
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO
RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING NOW TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH
THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 84.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX CONSOLIDATES.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
CENTER OF ALEX REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90
NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN-
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS
BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
285/7. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT
ALEX. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED
WESTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT...
ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 16.9N 84.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...ALEX HEADING TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 85.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX CONSOLIDATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF
ALEX REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 261445
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...LARGE TROPICAL STORM ALEX HEADING TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ALEX MOVES INLAND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...AND THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT41 KNHC 261446
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SQUALLS IN RAINBANDS...AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER... A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT ALEX STILL HAS A POORLY
ORGANIZED INNER CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED
ON 3.0 AND 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TABF AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY...AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX LATER TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH ALEX IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE
STRENGTHENING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE EFFECT OF LAND PRIMARILY AS
THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE
COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH AND ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME BECOME A
HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS MODELS.

SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A RELIABLE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ALEX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ALEX MOVING ON THE SAME GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALEX SHOULD DECREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR WHICH PREVIOUSLY MOVED ALEX ON A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE GULF HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ARE
NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.3N 86.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.7N 87.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 19.0N 89.1W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 28/0000Z 20.5N 91.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 28/1200Z 22.0N 92.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 24.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

261749
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...LARGE TROPICAL STORM ALEX HEADING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AIR FORCE PLANE INBOUND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 87.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST. ALEX HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. HOWEVER...ALEX SHOULD
DECREASE IT FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL REACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. ALEX
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ALEX MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...AND THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TODAY. HEAVY SQUALLS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING BELIZE AND EASTERN
YUCATAN AS REPORTED BY AN AUTOMATIC SURFACE STATION FROM THE
MEXICAN NAVY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 262031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A STRONGER ALEX...WEATHER DETERIORATING
FAST IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 87.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE ALEX MOVES INLAND
...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
YUCATAN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ALEX MOVES OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT IN THE BAY ISLANDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED ALEX AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE WAS A
LITTLE STRONGER...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 996 MB AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KNOTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THERE WERE
SEVERAL SFMR VALUES AROUND 55 KNOTS...AND THIS IS THE VALUE USED
FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST T-NUMBERS WHICH REACHED 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
THERE IS LITTLE ROOM FOR ALEX TO INTENSIFY MUCH MORE SINCE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER LAND. ALEX IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT ONCE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN. ALEX HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT REACHES THE
MEXICAN COAST IN AROUND 96 HOURS.

THE CENTER WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EARLIER TODAY BUT NOW THAT
THE STORM IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
PROVIDED A GOOD FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE RELIABLE AND IT IS
ESTIMATED AT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
TO KEEP ALEX ON A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED WHILE ALEX IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH BECAUSE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH JOINING
THE RELIABLE ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 17.3N 87.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 17.7N 89.2W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 28/0600Z 20.0N 92.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 93.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 21.5N 95.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 22.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 22.0N 101.0W 20 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 262331
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...ALEX NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM TELA EASTWARD TO LIMON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM TELA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS
AND GUATEMALA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THIS EVENING...MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR SUNDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST AFTER ALEX MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 270239
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...ALEX MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 88.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE ALEX MOVES
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AFTER ALEX MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS ALEX WEAKENS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTNT21 KNHC 270232
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0300 UTC SUN JUN 27 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 88.4W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 88.4W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 88.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.6N 91.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.4N 92.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 88.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[KFDM Meteorologist]

WTNT41 KNHC 270251
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF ALEX MOVED INLAND IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF BELIZE CITY...WHERE RECENT OBSERVATIONS SERVE AS THE BASIS
FOR THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...A
RECENT BURST DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVED INLAND. GIVEN
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 50 KT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CI ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY AS ALEX MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER
ALEX MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THESE MODELS TAKE ALEX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND INTO MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 17.7N 88.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 18.5N 89.9W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.6N 91.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 28/1200Z 20.4N 92.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 22.0N 96.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 23.0N 99.0W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 101.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[cycloneye]

Discussion came out late.

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF ALEX MOVED INLAND IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF BELIZE CITY...WHERE RECENT OBSERVATIONS SERVE AS THE BASIS
FOR THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...A
RECENT BURST DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVED INLAND. GIVEN
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 50 KT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CI ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY AS ALEX MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER
ALEX MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THESE MODELS TAKE ALEX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND INTO MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 17.7N 88.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 18.5N 89.9W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.6N 91.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 28/1200Z 20.4N 92.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 22.0N 96.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 23.0N 99.0W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 101.5W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN YUCATAN BUT STILL PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CHETUMAL
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR FROM BELIZE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THIS MORNING...AND ENTER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE ALEX MOVES
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AFTER ALEX MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENT DATA FROM
A POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE INDICATED WINDS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WERE STILL OCCURRING OFF THE EAST COAST OF BELIZE FROM NEAR BELIZE
CITY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO AMBERGRIS CAY AND CAYO NORTE
MEXICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS ALEX WEAKENS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 271143
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 89.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
ALEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING
AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND...
AND ALEX COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING.
RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AFTER ALEX MOVES
BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OFF
THE COAST OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...
GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BELIZE
AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS ALEX WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER
INLAND THIS MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[dixiebreeze]

4 a.m. Discussion:

RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER
DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS
ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 90.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER ALEX EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ALEX IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...
GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 90.6W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 90.6W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 90.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.6N 91.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.4N 92.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.1N 93.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.8N 94.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 90.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HurricaneBelle]

WTNT41 KNHC 271440
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE
CENTER OF ALEX HAVE WARMED AND DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...AND A LACK OF ANY OBSERVATIONS
OF STRONGER WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. AFTER ALEX
EMERGES INTO THE GULF...WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR WILL OFFER THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING. GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS WELL DEFINED...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
ALEX TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY TONIGHT...AND FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE
ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL BEYOND THAT TIME. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ALEX SPENDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL
BE THE PIVOTAL FACTOR IN HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.

WHILE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ALEX APPEARS ALMOST DUE WEST...A
LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS....A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF ALEX. THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE WEAKER WITH THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENTLY TAKING ALEX MORE POLEWARD. THE REMAINING MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX WILL RESULT IN A MORE
WESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND THE HWRF ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS GROUP OF MODELS...BUT DO
NOT SHOW A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND BEYOND THAT
TIME IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CLOSE TO
THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALL OF THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF ALEX OFFERS A
REMINDER TO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...PARTICULARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHERE AVERAGE
FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE 200 TO 300 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 18.7N 90.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 19.6N 91.6W 35 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 28/1200Z 20.4N 92.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 21.1N 93.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 21.8N 94.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 23.0N 96.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND