WPAC: 91W INVEST ESE of Japan (JTWC POOR)

[Chacor]

Another invest in the WPAC, this one SSE of Japan, in about the spot the ECMWF suggested a strong typhoon would form on July 5. Maybe finally something to watch.



JMA has it as a LOW, rather than as an LPA: LOW 1006 HPA AT 30N 149E SE SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

The old EURO run showing this system.

[bob rulz]

Are we finally going to have something in the WPAC?

The last few years, we've had at least 1 category 4 typhoon by this time (2 in 2008 in fact!) and this year we've had 1 measly tropical storm.

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 30.9N 149.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL, FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN AN
AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER,
VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO
TRANSITION FROM SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL. ADDITIONALLY, A 292338Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS WEAKER CENTRAL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SURROUNDED
BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS. NEARBY BUOYS INDICATE MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24 TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND A SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[KWT]

Are we finally going to have something in the WPAC?

The last few years, we've had at least 1 category 4 typhoon by this time (2 in 2008 in fact!) and this year we've had 1 measly tropical storm.

Well the WPAC can't keep quiet for much longer you'd have to think, I think sooner rather then later things will get going, but to only get 1 system out of 11 invests is really quite surprising!

[Infdidoll]

I was reading that if we don't get a named storm by July 7th, it will break JTWC records. The latest named storm since they began tracking was on that date.

[Typhoon10]

Yeah its crazy this year. Southern China has been badly hit by rain and floods, yet here in HK we have had little rain apart from the 3 days last week. Even the UK is having a very dry year with hosepipe bans being touted for the summer.

Surely we have to start having Storms here in WPAC??

[KWT]

It certainly is dry here in the UK, been quite hot recently as well

Anyway yeah the WPAC has been very slow to start, this invest doesn't look like its going to do anything much.

FWIW the WPAC is currently the slowest of the 4 NH basins at the start of July in terms of ACE, I bet there are very few years where thats been the case.

[cycloneye]

It certainly is dry here in the UK, been quite hot recently as well

Anyway yeah the WPAC has been very slow to start, this invest doesn't look like its going to do anything much.

FWIW the WPAC is currently the slowest of the 4 NH basins at the start of July in terms of ACE, I bet there are very few years where thats been the case.

Dont forget WPAC only beats the CPAC that is with 0 ACE so far.

[wyq614]

POOR cancelled, system gone from NRL.