Out of season but not looking good
SIO : INVEST 92S
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Yeah I thought it was a little on the late side to have an invest down there, though waters temps are pretty condusive for much of the season.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9S 92.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 1235 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301343Z SSMIS MIRCROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS ATTEMPTING TO CONSOLIDATE
AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301543Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE 10 TO 15 KNOT LLCC. THE WINDS AT THE CENTER ARE WEAK RELATIVE
TO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT FLOW ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY THE LLCC SITS BENEATH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THUS,
CONVECTION IS HAVING DIFFICULTY PERSISTING AND ORGANIZING AROUND THE
LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
APPROXIMATELY 1235 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301343Z SSMIS MIRCROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS ATTEMPTING TO CONSOLIDATE
AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301543Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE 10 TO 15 KNOT LLCC. THE WINDS AT THE CENTER ARE WEAK RELATIVE
TO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT FLOW ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY THE LLCC SITS BENEATH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THUS,
CONVECTION IS HAVING DIFFICULTY PERSISTING AND ORGANIZING AROUND THE
LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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