ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS

[TheEuropean]

Sun Jul 4 03:34:27 EDT 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 040707

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0707 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100704 0600 100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 82.0W 19.5N 85.1W 21.2N 87.5W 22.9N 89.3W
BAMD 17.5N 82.0W 18.9N 83.9W 20.2N 85.5W 21.3N 86.9W
BAMM 17.5N 82.0W 19.0N 84.4W 20.4N 86.4W 21.7N 88.1W
LBAR 17.5N 82.0W 18.8N 83.9W 20.1N 85.5W 21.3N 86.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100706 0600 100707 0600 100708 0600 100709 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 90.9W 25.8N 94.1W 26.4N 97.8W 26.2N 101.3W
BAMD 22.3N 88.2W 23.5N 90.7W 24.2N 93.6W 24.6N 96.3W
BAMM 22.9N 89.6W 24.5N 92.7W 25.5N 96.2W 26.0N 99.8W
LBAR 22.3N 87.9W 24.3N 89.9W 25.8N 91.8W 26.0N 93.8W
SHIP 40KTS 54KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 37KTS 51KTS 63KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 82.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 79.0W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 76.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL962010  07/04/10  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    25    27    29    31    35    40    48    54    60    66    69    72
V (KT) LAND       25    25    27    29    31    32    37    45    51    57    63    48    34
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    26    27    28    31    35    40    48    58    49    34

SHEAR (KT)        16    18    15    14    17    11     8     7     6     3     3     6     2
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     4     2     1     0     3     1     3    -1    -3     1     0     1    -1
SHEAR DIR        278   298   302   305   305   324   318   108   280   164   247   115   269
SST (C)         29.3  29.5  29.7  29.5  29.0  28.4  28.7  29.2  29.4  29.2  28.7  28.3  28.5
POT. INT. (KT)   158   162   165   161   152   142   146   154   158   154   146   140   143
ADJ. POT. INT.   156   158   160   153   143   130   132   138   141   136   130   123   124
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4
TH_E DEV (C)      12    11    12    12    10    11    11    11    11    11    10    12    12
700-500 MB RH     75    73    74    75    74    71    69    69    69    70    71    77    76
GFS VTEX (KT)      5     6     6     6     6     5     5  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -32   -41   -28   -19    -6    -2     4    23    21    51    53    53    49
200 MB DIV        39    35    22    13     8    47    26    68    28    45    17     1    12
LAND (KM)        300   292   311   205    75    13   183   321   460   291   105   -82  -249
LAT (DEG N)     17.5  18.3  19.0  19.7  20.4  21.7  22.9  23.8  24.5  25.1  25.5  25.8  26.0
LONG(DEG W)     82.0  83.2  84.4  85.4  86.4  88.1  89.6  91.1  92.7  94.4  96.2  98.1  99.8
STM SPEED (KT)    14    14    13    12    11    10     9     8     8     8     9     8     7
HEAT CONTENT     107   111   114   109    82     0    22    32    43    47    26    23  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15      CX,CY: -13/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  749  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  13.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  43.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.   1.   6.  13.  20.  25.  30.  32.  34.  35.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   7.   7.   9.  10.  11.  11.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   1.   0.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   2.   4.   6.  10.  15.  23.  29.  35.  41.  44.  47.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST     07/04/10  06 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  16.1 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  23.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 129.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  76.4 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  13.7 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 104.6 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    24% is   1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    17% is   2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST     07/04/10  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST     07/04/2010  06 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[HURAKAN]

[LaBreeze]

Is this Alex Part 2? Same direction it seems.

[Nederlander]

Is this Alex Part 2? Same direction it seems.

Looks like it may be a weaker system than Alex. I am not sure how the models are handling strength though. I guess it depends on the shear environment as well as the air quality.. GoM has some dry air right now..

Edit: Checked out the CMC and the Euro.. CMC shows Upper Texas coast while the euro shows Northern mexico close to where Alex made landfall. Not surprised by this. Euro was the left outlier and CMC was the right outlier for Alex..

[rockyman]

6z (regional) CMC shows 96L north of the Yucatan, with 95L still offshore western LA in 48 hours (the 0z model showed 95L well inland by that point):

[cycloneye]

Alex redux trackwise.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1318 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100704 1200 100705 0000 100705 1200 100706 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 83.0W 17.8N 85.3W 19.3N 87.3W 20.6N 89.1W
BAMD 16.2N 83.0W 17.3N 84.7W 18.2N 86.2W 18.9N 87.6W
BAMM 16.2N 83.0W 17.4N 84.7W 18.4N 86.3W 19.4N 87.9W
LBAR 16.2N 83.0W 17.5N 84.7W 18.6N 86.1W 19.7N 87.6W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100706 1200 100707 1200 100708 1200 100709 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 90.7W 23.7N 94.0W 24.8N 97.9W 25.0N 101.8W
BAMD 19.6N 88.8W 20.2N 91.4W 20.4N 94.4W 20.2N 97.5W
BAMM 20.3N 89.3W 21.7N 92.2W 22.7N 95.7W 23.2N 99.4W
LBAR 20.8N 89.1W 23.1N 92.0W 25.1N 94.7W 26.3N 97.8W
SHIP 47KTS 61KTS 72KTS 77KTS
DSHP 28KTS 39KTS 51KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 83.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 80.8W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 77.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[jasons2k]

"Relocated" much further SW with this initialization...

[rockyman]

Were these models initialized before or after the visible pics became available?

[cycloneye]

GFDL nor HWRF have not runned yet on 96L.I suspect,those will start with the 12z run after 1:00 PM EDT. I also think they have it too far south.I see turning around 18.0N-81W.

[Frank P]

GFDL nor HWRF have not runned yet on 96L.I suspect,those will start with the 12z run after 1:00 PM EDT. I also think they have it too far south.I see turning around 17.5N-80W.

That's the area I was looking at too... don't think its at the lower levels yet but attm it appears to be a good MLC spinning... system moving off to the northwest.. would have a major impact to any models if it were to be initialized at this location... guess we'll find out later today..

[Ivanhater]

95L may have an impact on helping draw this north

[Ivanhater]

Canadian

[cycloneye]

First run of HWRF is Texasbound.

[cycloneye]

First run of GFDL goes for only 12 hours.

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.9 82.9 290./11.1
6 16.5 83.0 357./ 6.7
12 17.0 86.2 279./31.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 12 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Ivanhater]

12z cmc

[Nederlander]

12z cmc

hmm CMC seeing another trough perhaps? this setup is like deja vu..

[southerngale]

Déjà vu.

It feels like Groundhog Day. And now the EURO shortly... I'm guessing Mexico.



Edit: lol @ Nederlander - we were thinking the same thing.

[Weatherfreak000]

GFDL is trash. I notice GFDL is keen on dissipating storms sometimes when they are just classified invests. The GFS is another. Perhaps if it does the same we could have a trend.

Otherwise, here we go again. Throwing darts at the dartboard.

[KWT]

Lets remember the errors certain models had, the synoptic situation is nearly identical and the current location of 96L is nearly identical as well, the only difference is Alex had been upgraded near this point.