WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[Infdidoll]

Location: 7.1 N, 145.1 E

[KWT]

Very strong convection there, whilst it is near the ITCZ that is something quite a few of the invests in the WPAC have lacked recently. Lets see if it can split from the ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

Finnally a decent invest in the WPAC after pitful ones in the past months. Lets see if the second storm gives birth from this system and finnally is the start of a more active WPAC 2010 season.

[Typhoon Hunter]

It's going to be entering a low shear and high SST environment once it's passed way to the south of Guam. I wouldn't be surprised to see a POOR from JTWC soon.

ECMWF in the latest run takes a significant TC through Bashi channel towards Hong Kong next week, I wonder if this is the system it's seeing?

[KWT]

Its a tough call, if it is 93W it doesn't move very fast and it really does take its time to get going.

[HURAKAN]

Looks good

[wyq614]

ECMWF in the latest run takes a significant TC through Bashi channel towards Hong Kong next week, I wonder if this is the system it's seeing?

IMO unlikely, ECMWF sees it dissipated soon and develops something more closer to Luzon and move it through Bashi Str. all the way west in the north of South China Sea, the TC is more likely the actual disturbance east of Luzon...

[Infdidoll]

Seems to have lost most of the convection:



Recent satellite loops show a few convective bursts, but the wind analysis doesn't look as tight as it did yesterday. I don't think JTWC will even bother with labeling it unless it flares up again, at this point.

[Chacor]

We've had TDs from worse before, so we'll see. Not looking great right now though, has to be said.

[Typhoon10]

Here in HK, and Taiwan its been so hot for a while now. Surely this will warm the sea, but having such heat, does it make it more suitable for systems to develop?

[dexterlabio]

^Yeah, that's more likely the case. Above average sea temperature tends to provide more energy to the cyclones.

As of now, the circulation looks bad, but we will see. I have seen some tropical disturbances before being disorganized but then gaining more organization once it attains more favorable conditions in the ocean.

If this will become the system seen to cross the Bashi channel next week, then I expect that the southwest monsoon will finally be induced, becoming hyperactive once again. Since our local weather agency in the Philippines announced the start of the rainy season, the rains we experienced are less compared to the amount of rainfall we received typically for the months of June and July, adding the fact that there are no significant tropical cyclones forming as of late.

[Infdidoll]

I'm off to bed, but had to check up on this before nodding off. Looking better...Convection increasing again. No word from JTWC yet.

[KWT]

It probably does have a chance of developing IMO but we shall see, it really is a slow ole start by any standards...

[Typhoon10]

Is this the same one?

ABPW10 PGTW 092130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/092100Z-100600ZJUL2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 138.1E, IN
THE VICINITY OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
07091910Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK ELONGATED CIRCULATION
OVER YAP, WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND WEAK BANDING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FEATURE IS JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS P0OR.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Infdidoll]

16kt last night to 22kt today. Little invest that could...

[dexterlabio]

It's getting more compact but still remains small, not disorganized as compared yesterday. Suprisingly, euro models do not show a system forming anytime next week, or maybe I just did not notice some changes.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better

[KWT]

Yeah I think we may have finally finished our hunt for our 2nd system of the WPAC season, its certainly looking increasingly good now IMO.

[Typhoon10]

ABPW10 PGTW 102130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102130Z-110600ZJUL2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
138.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
07101800Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
OBSERVATIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM PALAU AND YAP,
SHOW WEAK SURFACE WINDS (5 KNOTS) FROM THE SOUTH AND SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES BETWEEN 1010 AND 1011 MB WITH A 1 MB PRESSURE FALL FROM
YAP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.

Upgraded to fair!