EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007111811
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2010, DB, O, 2010071118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962010
EP, 96, 2010071018, , BEST, 0, 117N, 906W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2010071100, , BEST, 0, 117N, 912W, 15, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2010071106, , BEST, 0, 118N, 917W, 15, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2010071112, , BEST, 0, 119N, 921W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2010071118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 925W, 20, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 111814
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC SUN JUL 11 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962010) 20100711 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100711 1800 100712 0600 100712 1800 100713 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 92.5W 12.5N 94.7W 12.8N 96.5W 13.0N 98.0W
BAMD 12.0N 92.5W 12.3N 95.4W 12.7N 98.2W 12.8N 100.8W
BAMM 12.0N 92.5W 12.4N 94.9W 12.8N 97.2W 13.1N 99.2W
LBAR 12.0N 92.5W 12.2N 94.4W 12.7N 96.8W 13.0N 99.5W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100713 1800 100714 1800 100715 1800 100716 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 99.3W 12.9N 102.4W 12.6N 105.7W 12.5N 107.0W
BAMD 12.7N 103.3W 13.2N 108.3W 13.6N 113.6W 13.8N 119.3W
BAMM 13.2N 101.1W 13.9N 105.3W 14.6N 110.1W 14.9N 115.1W
LBAR 13.4N 102.5W 14.8N 109.5W 16.3N 116.2W 11.5N 116.1W
SHIP 39KTS 49KTS 52KTS 53KTS
DSHP 39KTS 49KTS 52KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 92.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 91.7W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 90.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Chacor]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GUATEMALA. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND
5 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

I'm guessing this is the same system that was being watched a few days ago in the SW Caribbean before it reached CA?

[pepeavilenho]

I'm guessing this is the same system that was being watched a few days ago in the SW Caribbean before it reached CA?

Yeah, I think so...it had 0%

[HURAKAN]

11/1745 UTC 11.9N 91.7W T1.0/1.0 96E -- East Pacific

25 knots

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 11 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO
BORDER REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

SHIP at this 00z run increases intensity very close to hurricane strengh.

316
WHXX01 KMIA 120016
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0016 UTC MON JUL 12 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962010) 20100712 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100712 0000 100712 1200 100713 0000 100713 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 92.9W 12.9N 95.0W 13.6N 96.8W 14.2N 98.5W
BAMD 12.2N 92.9W 12.8N 95.5W 13.4N 98.0W 13.7N 100.5W
BAMM 12.2N 92.9W 12.9N 95.1W 13.5N 97.2W 14.0N 99.3W
LBAR 12.2N 92.9W 12.5N 94.9W 13.0N 97.4W 13.4N 100.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100714 0000 100715 0000 100716 0000 100717 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 100.2W 15.8N 104.9W 17.1N 110.1W 17.8N 114.6W
BAMD 14.2N 102.9W 15.4N 108.1W 17.1N 113.9W 18.7N 119.5W
BAMM 14.7N 101.3W 16.3N 106.3W 18.1N 112.1W 19.5N 117.5W
LBAR 13.9N 103.4W 15.7N 110.8W 17.1N 117.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 64KTS 63KTS 57KTS
DSHP 48KTS 64KTS 63KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 92.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 92.1W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 91.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Looks disorganized at this time.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 12 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

[clfenwi]

Since the 12Z runs on Friday, the CMC and NOGAPS models have been pretty consistent in developing a storm out of this area. GFS and Euro have since joined in, though it's not clear that all are developing from the same area; some develop the area off the Guatemala/Mexico coast; others the wave to the southeast.

Anyhow, here are the 12Z tropical models:

Code: Select all

715
WHXX01 KMIA 121238
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC MON JUL 12 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962010) 20100712 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100712  1200   100713  0000   100713  1200   100714  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.4N  94.5W   13.2N  96.5W   13.5N  98.3W   13.3N 100.3W
BAMD    12.4N  94.5W   12.9N  97.4W   13.2N 100.1W   13.5N 102.7W
BAMM    12.4N  94.5W   13.0N  97.2W   13.2N  99.5W   13.3N 102.0W
LBAR    12.4N  94.5W   12.7N  96.7W   13.0N  99.3W   13.5N 102.4W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          33KTS          43KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          33KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100714  1200   100715  1200   100716  1200   100717  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N 102.5W   13.9N 106.8W   14.7N 110.8W   15.4N 113.9W
BAMD    13.8N 105.6W   14.6N 111.4W   14.9N 117.0W   14.0N 122.2W
BAMM    13.6N 104.5W   13.9N 109.5W   13.9N 113.9W   13.7N 116.7W
LBAR    14.1N 106.0W   15.8N 113.4W   18.1N 120.9W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        51KTS          63KTS          64KTS          67KTS
DSHP        51KTS          63KTS          64KTS          67KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.4N LONCUR =  94.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  93.2W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  92.1W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN




[KWT]

Models do seem quite keen on something developing out of this area. As for the ECM, I'm really not sure what area its developing, seems like it develops some convection behind 96E though it probably would still count as 96E I'd imagine.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 12 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT
1400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

It looks like Estelle will have favorable conditions to allow it to become a hurricane.

Code: Select all

829
WHXX01 KMIA 121842
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC MON JUL 12 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962010) 20100712 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100712  1800   100713  0600   100713  1800   100714  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.4N  96.6W   12.9N  98.3W   12.7N  99.8W   12.6N 101.7W
BAMD    12.4N  96.6W   12.7N  99.6W   12.9N 102.4W   13.1N 105.1W
BAMM    12.4N  96.6W   13.0N  99.0W   13.3N 101.2W   13.6N 103.5W
LBAR    12.4N  96.6W   12.7N  99.0W   13.0N 101.9W   13.5N 105.5W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          39KTS          48KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          39KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100714  1800   100715  1800   100716  1800   100717  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N 103.5W   13.2N 107.3W   14.2N 110.1W   15.4N 111.7W
BAMD    13.5N 108.1W   13.8N 114.5W   13.4N 120.4W   12.4N 124.7W
BAMM    14.1N 106.2W   14.7N 112.1W   14.7N 117.7W   14.0N 121.6W
LBAR    14.2N 109.3W   16.1N 117.2W    8.0N 122.2W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        56KTS          66KTS          69KTS          70KTS
DSHP        56KTS          66KTS          69KTS          70KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.4N LONCUR =  96.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  94.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  92.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[clfenwi]

Looking at the visible loop of the area, the low seems to be in pretty fast flow (and yes, I know the loop skips an hour). Walking the loop back to the 18Z time frame, the 18Z best track position looks good to me (to the limits of my precision). But, I would place the center at 2015 ivo 12.5N 97.5W; implying a forward motion of ~20 knots, rather than the 10 it was initialized with for the 18Z models. Even without making a position estimate, I would say it's moving quicker than 10 knots.

[KWT]

The SHIPS do seem quite keen on ramping up 96E it has to be said, its still gotta try and consolidate itself first but chances are decent down the line that it pulls itself together and develop.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 12 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 131137
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[clfenwi]

Looking at tropical model runs, it appears they have relocated the center and revised best track accordingly, after it became clear when the convection dissipated. The original 06Z models were initialized at 12.4N 98.4 W, while this "revised" 06Z was initialized at 13.2N 98.7W:

Code: Select all

433
WHXX01 KMIA 131036
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1036 UTC TUE JUL 13 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962010) 20100713 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100713  0600   100713  1800   100714  0600   100714  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.2N  98.7W   13.5N 100.0W   13.6N 101.8W   14.3N 104.0W
BAMD    13.2N  98.7W   13.5N 101.5W   13.8N 104.3W   14.1N 107.4W
BAMM    13.2N  98.7W   13.7N 100.9W   14.1N 103.3W   14.7N 106.0W
LBAR    13.2N  98.7W   13.7N 101.0W   14.5N 104.1W   15.3N 107.7W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100715  0600   100716  0600   100717  0600   100718  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.1N 106.5W   16.5N 112.4W   16.5N 118.3W   15.4N 122.2W
BAMD    14.3N 110.8W   14.4N 117.7W   14.0N 123.5W   13.1N 127.5W
BAMM    15.3N 109.1W   16.1N 115.7W   15.8N 121.6W   14.8N 126.0W
LBAR    16.3N 111.8W   18.6N 119.5W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        45KTS          54KTS          53KTS          54KTS
DSHP        45KTS          54KTS          53KTS          54KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.2N LONCUR =  98.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  12.9N LONM12 =  96.7W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  12.4N LONM24 =  94.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN




[clfenwi]

12Z tropical models. Global models (CMC/NOGAPS/GFS) haven't forgotten about this system, but it remains a matter of development later rather than sooner.

Code: Select all

501
WHXX01 KMIA 131318
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1318 UTC TUE JUL 13 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962010) 20100713 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100713  1200   100714  0000   100714  1200   100715  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  99.7W   13.8N 101.2W   14.3N 103.3W   15.0N 105.6W
BAMD    13.7N  99.7W   14.1N 102.5W   14.6N 105.6W   15.0N 109.0W
BAMM    13.7N  99.7W   14.3N 102.0W   14.9N 104.7W   15.6N 107.6W
LBAR    13.7N  99.7W   14.3N 102.2W   15.2N 105.3W   16.3N 109.0W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100715  1200   100716  1200   100717  1200   100718  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N 108.5W   17.2N 115.0W   17.4N 121.6W   16.7N 127.8W
BAMD    15.2N 112.7W   15.0N 119.7W   13.9N 125.4W   12.7N 130.0W
BAMM    16.1N 111.1W   16.7N 118.0W   16.1N 124.3W   15.0N 129.8W
LBAR    17.3N 112.9W   20.0N 120.6W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        48KTS          55KTS          51KTS          51KTS
DSHP        48KTS          55KTS          51KTS          51KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR =  99.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  13.1N LONM12 =  97.7W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  12.7N LONM24 =  95.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
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