WPAC: INVEST 97W
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WPAC: INVEST 97W
One we might want to keep an eye on...developing rather quickly.
Last edited by senorpepr on Tue Jul 20, 2010 11:17 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Reason: JMA downgraded from Tropical Depression; reflected in title
Reason: JMA downgraded from Tropical Depression; reflected in title
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Yeah I'd tend to agree with that Chacor, at least this system doesn't have some fairly hefty shear heading right for it. It does appear to some some weak turning as well.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W
Yeah, will keep a watch on this one. I do think July/August/September will be very active.
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senorpepr
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860
TXPN22 KNES 171001
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)
B. 17/0832Z
C. 24.5N
D. 134.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT PAST 6 HOURS. LLCC
STILL NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED ON SE EDGE OF CONVECTION AND ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW. RECENT 0814Z SSMIS PASS WIND FIELD SUPPORTS
POSITION. DT=2.0 BASED ON 3 TENTHS BANDING. MET AND PT=1.5. FT BASED
ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RUMINSKI
Looks like 97W is slowing getting it's act together...
TXPN22 KNES 171001
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)
B. 17/0832Z
C. 24.5N
D. 134.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT PAST 6 HOURS. LLCC
STILL NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED ON SE EDGE OF CONVECTION AND ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW. RECENT 0814Z SSMIS PASS WIND FIELD SUPPORTS
POSITION. DT=2.0 BASED ON 3 TENTHS BANDING. MET AND PT=1.5. FT BASED
ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RUMINSKI
Looks like 97W is slowing getting it's act together...
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.9N 135.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170026Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE A
TUTT CELL CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 134.3E WITH A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP CONVECTION IS
HIGHLY DISORGANIZED AND IS CENTERED AROUND THE TUTT CELL. A 170030Z
ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A 10-15 KNOT ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND ALSO
SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE TUTT CELL
CENTER. A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM A8RV9 (LOCATED 60 NM SOUTH OF THE
CENTER) INDICATED NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SLP OF 1011.5 MB.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVERGENT, CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LLCC AND DIFFLUENCE NORTHWEST OF
THE LLCC, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. BASED ON THE WEAK LLCC AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170026Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE A
TUTT CELL CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 134.3E WITH A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP CONVECTION IS
HIGHLY DISORGANIZED AND IS CENTERED AROUND THE TUTT CELL. A 170030Z
ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A 10-15 KNOT ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND ALSO
SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE TUTT CELL
CENTER. A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM A8RV9 (LOCATED 60 NM SOUTH OF THE
CENTER) INDICATED NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SLP OF 1011.5 MB.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVERGENT, CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LLCC AND DIFFLUENCE NORTHWEST OF
THE LLCC, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. BASED ON THE WEAK LLCC AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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ManilaTC
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W
'tis breaking up
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W
ClarkEligue wrote:'tis breaking up
Wasnt this quite north and unusual for anything to develop so far north? In my recent time watching this forum, there develop south then if anything swing north towards Okinawa and Japan?
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Storms forming above 20°N in July since 2000:
0005 TEMBIN: TS July 19 at 26.7°N 142.2°E, peak 40 knots (TS)
0006 BOLAVEN: TS July 25 at 25.0°N 126.9°E, peak 50 kts (STS)
0105 TRAMI: TS July 10 at 20.0°N 124.0°E, peak 40 kts (TS)
0106 KONG-REY: TS July 22 at 25.0°N 150.4°E, peak 70 kts (TY)
0107 YUTU: TS July 23 at 20.2°N 119.7°E, peak 55 kts (STS)
0208 NAKRI: TS July 9 at 23.1°N 119.3°E, peak 50 kts (STS)
0211 FUNG-WONG: TS July 20 at 23.4°N 140.5°E, peak 70 kts (TY)
0409 KOMPASU: TS July 14 at 20.9°N 124.3°E, peak 45 kts (TS)
0410 NAMTHEUN: TS July 25 at 22.4°N 150.0°E, peak 85 kts (TY)
0505 HAITANG: TS July 13 at 22.9°N 149.2°E, peak 105 kts (TY)
0506 NALGAE: TS July 20 at 26.0°N 162.6°E, peak 45 kts (TS)
0808 FUNG-WONG: TS July 25 at 21.9°N 130.7°E, peak 75 kts (TY)
TOTAL: 12 from 2000-2009 (1.2 storms form above 20°N in July every year on average)
If we add the qualifier "east of 125°E longitude", then there were eight (or just under one a year on average).
Out of the 12, five were typhoons, meaning on average, a typhoon forms in July above 20°N every other year.
The strongest of them was Typhoon 0505 HAITANG, at 105 knots.
All July storms above 20°N since 2000 have attained at least a 40 knot windspeed.
In this data set, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2009 did not have storms forming in July above 20°N.
0005 TEMBIN: TS July 19 at 26.7°N 142.2°E, peak 40 knots (TS)
0006 BOLAVEN: TS July 25 at 25.0°N 126.9°E, peak 50 kts (STS)
0105 TRAMI: TS July 10 at 20.0°N 124.0°E, peak 40 kts (TS)
0106 KONG-REY: TS July 22 at 25.0°N 150.4°E, peak 70 kts (TY)
0107 YUTU: TS July 23 at 20.2°N 119.7°E, peak 55 kts (STS)
0208 NAKRI: TS July 9 at 23.1°N 119.3°E, peak 50 kts (STS)
0211 FUNG-WONG: TS July 20 at 23.4°N 140.5°E, peak 70 kts (TY)
0409 KOMPASU: TS July 14 at 20.9°N 124.3°E, peak 45 kts (TS)
0410 NAMTHEUN: TS July 25 at 22.4°N 150.0°E, peak 85 kts (TY)
0505 HAITANG: TS July 13 at 22.9°N 149.2°E, peak 105 kts (TY)
0506 NALGAE: TS July 20 at 26.0°N 162.6°E, peak 45 kts (TS)
0808 FUNG-WONG: TS July 25 at 21.9°N 130.7°E, peak 75 kts (TY)
TOTAL: 12 from 2000-2009 (1.2 storms form above 20°N in July every year on average)
If we add the qualifier "east of 125°E longitude", then there were eight (or just under one a year on average).
Out of the 12, five were typhoons, meaning on average, a typhoon forms in July above 20°N every other year.
The strongest of them was Typhoon 0505 HAITANG, at 105 knots.
All July storms above 20°N since 2000 have attained at least a 40 knot windspeed.
In this data set, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2009 did not have storms forming in July above 20°N.
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Getting some good wind here and ominous-looking skies...About 15 Okinawan boys are out on the seawall looking to see if the waves are big yet. Had to retrieve patio furniture after it went flying across the balcony. Shouldn't have underestimated this one. Almost lost my $15 plastic lawn chair! 
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W
ABPW10 PGTW 181000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181000Z-190600ZJUL2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZJUL2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 180600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 121.2E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF MANILA PHILIPPINES,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
122.2E, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA.
1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.9N
135.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE
CONVERGENT NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD-CORE LOW BUT
IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND JAPAN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MINAMI-DAITO ISLAND SUPPORT A WEAK 10-15
KNOT CIRCULATION WITH SLP VALUES NEAR 1011 MB. A 172215Z AMSU IMAGE
DEPICTED A DEFINED LLCC WITH AN ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181000Z-190600ZJUL2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZJUL2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 180600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 121.2E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF MANILA PHILIPPINES,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
122.2E, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA.
1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.9N
135.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE
CONVERGENT NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD-CORE LOW BUT
IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND JAPAN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MINAMI-DAITO ISLAND SUPPORT A WEAK 10-15
KNOT CIRCULATION WITH SLP VALUES NEAR 1011 MB. A 172215Z AMSU IMAGE
DEPICTED A DEFINED LLCC WITH AN ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS.//
NNNN
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ECM actually does develop a weak closed system from this region, so a weak system probably does seem the right call from this region.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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senorpepr
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WWJP25 RJTD 181800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 15.1N 118.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 16.0N 115.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 143E
47N 153E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 37N 160E 39N 150E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 47N 132E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 48N 176E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 26N 126E WNW 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 32N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 54N 153E SOUTH 10 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 38N 161E SSE 15 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 15.1N 118.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 16.0N 115.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 143E
47N 153E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 37N 160E 39N 150E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 47N 132E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 48N 176E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 26N 126E WNW 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 32N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 54N 153E SOUTH 10 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 38N 161E SSE 15 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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