WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTHU (1003/04W)

[Infdidoll]

Yet, another:



Colorado State and Navy both reporting 97W & 98W, now, so thought I'd go ahead and post them.

[KWT]

Looks like the system is suffering rather badly from the outflow shear from Conson, but once Conson is out of the way it could have a chance.

[senorpepr]

971
TXPN23 KNES 171010
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 17/0832Z

C. 15.4N

D. 123.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...PATCHY CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AROUND PERIPHERY OF SLOWLY
ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CENTER. DT=1.0 BASED ON 2 TENTHS BANDING. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI


98W also getting attention from SSD. Only T1.0 at this time, but some slow organization occurring.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.3N 122.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 162334Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING. AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE AT 161339Z SHOWED A 10-15
KNOT CIRCULATION AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM RPLB (SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF LLCC) INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 05 KNOTS WITH SLP
NEAR 1009 MB. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH
WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL NEAR 25.2N 134.3E.
THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND
WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION AND PROXIMITY TO LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[P.K.]

12Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 16N 123E WNW SLOWLY.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Cranking up rapidly by the looks of things. No rest for the wicked...

TXPN23 KNES 171526
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 17/1432Z

C. 15.2N

D. 122.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM APPEARS TO DEVELOPING RAPIDLY THOUGH CLOSE TO LAND
WITH DT=2.5 BASED ON 4/10 OF HOOKING BANDS. MET=1.5 AND PAT=2.0. FT
BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
122.8E, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION WITH IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
UNDER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A
TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE DEEPENING
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

JMA : 48 hours

[KWT]

Looks like sterring will be broadly the same as it was for Conson...

[ManilaTC]

This thing seems to be developing to the east of us again, satellite loops clearly show it

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ManilaTC]

WWJP25 RJTD 171800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 142E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 36N 180E 34N 164E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 36N 118E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 48N 173E SE SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 16N 122E WNW SLOWLY.

[ManilaTC]

ABPW10 PGTW 171630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171630Z-180600ZJUL2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171351ZJUL2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 171200Z, TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.8N 106.7E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI VIETNAM,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO
55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 171500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
122.8E, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION WITH IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
UNDER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A
TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE DEEPENING
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.9N 135.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170026Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE A
TUTT CELL CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 134.3E WITH A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP CONVECTION IS
HIGHLY DISORGANIZED AND IS CENTERED AROUND THE TUTT CELL. A 170030Z
ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A 10-15 KNOT ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND ALSO
SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE TUTT CELL
CENTER. A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM A8RV9 (LOCATED 60 NM SOUTH OF THE
CENTER) INDICATED NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SLP OF 1011.5 MB.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVERGENT, CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LLCC AND DIFFLUENCE NORTHWEST OF
THE LLCC, ENHANCED BY A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. BASED ON THE WEAK LLCC AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.//

[Typhoon10]

Isnt this TD developing right over the Philippines? Surely with landmass beneath it makes it difficult to develop? Also we have high pressure over HK which isnt suitable for systems?

[ManilaTC]

Its now a Tropical Depression Fellas!

Looks like the TUTT has been aiding it to develop...


WTPQ21 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 15.4N 122.6E POOR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 16.2N 118.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

Track

[HURAKAN]

491
TPPN11 PGTW 180009

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 17/2332Z

C. 15.3N

D. 122.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/18HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


UEHARA

[Chacor]

Its now a Tropical Depression Fellas!

It was a tropical depression as early as 17/12z (8 pm Saturday), only difference is that JMA now expects it to develop and are issuing full warnings.

WTPQ21 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 15.4N 122.6E POOR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 16.2N 118.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

[Chacor]

The next name on the list is Chanthu, contributed by Cambodia.

In 2004, the last time this name was used, it was a severe tropical storm (JTWC typhoon) that affected south-central Philippines and central Vietnam.