ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 190909
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0909 UTC MON JUL 19 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100719 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100719 0600 100719 1800 100720 0600 100720 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 62.4W 20.3N 65.9W 21.3N 69.3W 22.5N 72.7W
BAMD 19.1N 62.4W 20.1N 64.5W 21.0N 66.2W 21.6N 67.9W
BAMM 19.1N 62.4W 20.1N 65.1W 20.7N 67.6W 21.3N 70.1W
LBAR 19.1N 62.4W 19.9N 64.6W 20.6N 67.1W 21.3N 69.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100721 0600 100722 0600 100723 0600 100724 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 75.6W 24.4N 81.6W 25.3N 87.4W 26.5N 92.3W
BAMD 22.1N 69.3W 22.8N 72.1W 23.8N 75.2W 24.5N 79.8W
BAMM 21.5N 72.3W 21.5N 76.8W 21.8N 80.7W 22.9N 84.3W
LBAR 21.9N 72.7W 22.8N 78.8W 24.0N 83.8W 24.6N 85.9W
SHIP 39KTS 46KTS 56KTS 64KTS
DSHP 39KTS 46KTS 41KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 62.4W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 60.1W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 56.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

As mad as it sounds I don't think the extrap is going to be that far off from what happens with this system's track.

It's certainly heading towards typical July developmental zone. Upper high should carry on taking this one into the Gulf, the the models are quite keen on lifting the system up as the upper ridge starts to decay...how long that takes will key as to the landfall.

[KyleEverett]

In the previous thread about this system Ivan posted the DGEX that first hinted at a NOLA from the east hit, but the model run after that showed it recurving into West Florida south of Tampa after entering the gulf.

Considering its an extension of the NAM using GFS data take it as you may.

[cycloneye]

Nothing strong at the first run of this model,only the track is interesting. By the way,GFDL has nothing yet for 97L as a track nor strengh.

06z HWRF

[rockyman]

Nothing strong at the first run of this model,only the track is interesting. By the way,GFDL has nothing yet for 97L as a track nor strengh.

06z HWRF

That's an Ike-like track (WSW across Cuba, then back WNW into the Gulf).
IKE PROJECTED PATH WHILE IT WAS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO (THIS IS NOT 97L):

[petit_bois]

Nothing strong at the first run of this model,only the track is interesting. By the way,GFDL has nothing yet for 97L as a track nor strengh.

06z HWRF

That's an Ike-like track (WSW across Cuba, then back WNW into the Gulf).
IKE PROJECTED PATH WHILE IT WAS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO (THIS IS NOT 97L):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... _019_A.GIF

Hurrican in September can't be compared to a invest in mid July

[clfenwi]

12z tropical models

Code: Select all

934
WHXX01 KWBC 191407
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1407 UTC MON JUL 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100719 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100719  1200   100720  0000   100720  1200   100721  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.2N  65.0W   20.2N  68.6W   21.3N  72.5W   22.4N  75.7W
BAMD    19.2N  65.0W   19.8N  66.8W   20.3N  68.6W   20.7N  70.3W
BAMM    19.2N  65.0W   19.9N  67.4W   20.3N  69.8W   20.7N  72.1W
LBAR    19.2N  65.0W   20.1N  67.7W   20.8N  70.7W   21.5N  73.6W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          39KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100721  1200   100722  1200   100723  1200   100724  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.0N  78.9W   24.1N  85.4W   25.6N  91.4W   27.7N  96.1W
BAMD    20.8N  71.9W   21.2N  74.9W   21.9N  78.1W   23.0N  81.8W
BAMM    20.6N  74.4W   20.2N  78.8W   20.4N  82.6W   21.2N  85.9W
LBAR    22.1N  76.6W   23.2N  82.8W   24.7N  88.4W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        42KTS          45KTS          56KTS          66KTS
DSHP        42KTS          45KTS          56KTS          66KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.2N LONCUR =  65.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  18.5N LONM12 =  61.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  17.4N LONM24 =  58.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN




[rockyman]

Nothing strong at the first run of this model,only the track is interesting. By the way,GFDL has nothing yet for 97L as a track nor strengh.

06z HWRF

That's an Ike-like track (WSW across Cuba, then back WNW into the Gulf).
IKE PROJECTED PATH WHILE IT WAS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO (THIS IS NOT 97L):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... _019_A.GIF

Hurricane in September can't be compared to a invest in mid July

Sure it can.

[cycloneye]

SHIP goes to hurricane in 120 hours. Here are the 12z tracks.

[ROCK]

with the high building in the SE in the short and mid term. I WNW track like this is not that crazy...it is July and not August or Sept when you have SV digging enough eroding the high.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't think a track that far south of Florida verifies.

[ROCK]

I don't think a track that far south of Florida verifies.

Neither do I but its not going to plow right through the ridge either...

[Ivanhater]

The OFCI models is interesting...isn't that the "internal NHC track"

[caneman]

No likely it will stay that far South! It shouldn't develop much if it traverses along the North part of the islands as inflow would be interrupted, if not the mountains killing it. We shall see though.

[ROCK]

The OFCI models is interesting...isn't that the "internal NHC track"

http://orcasystems.ca/zoo.jpg

nice pic of a EPAC system...Ivan....

[Ivanhater]

Dang it..I'm showing 97L

[A1A]

I'm missing something here - I see GOM in Ivan's pics.

[Nikki]

I also see the GOM in Ivan's picture....

[Ivanhater]

Ok, well the OFCI model (the one with the hurricane symbols), I believe is the internal NHC track. Someone correct me if I'm wrong...

[canes101]

Ok, well the OFCI model (the one with the hurricane symbols), I believe is the internal NHC track. Someone correct me if I'm wrong...

No your right..