ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION

[cperez1594]

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010072118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 928W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[I-wall]

Is this for the system in the BOC?

[cperez1594]

Yup it sure is.

[Hurricane]

Yup, you're right. The BOC system is now an invest.

[tailgater]

Place your bets now on what the percentage will be from the NHC. I'm going all the way up to 27%

[chzzdekr81]

I'm going with 20-30%.

[xcool22]

30% HERE

[Florida1118]

I say 20%.

[srainhoutx]

Should be inland S of Tampico in about 24 hours. The Para GFS has suggested this would be a least a TD.

[smw1981]

I can't even find it on the NOAA site yet! Have they not at least put a "low" (yellow) chance for it as of now?

[hurricaneCW]

Watch Bonnie quickly develop out of this disturbance. It looks pretty good and it seems to have an anticyclone right over it not to mention the positive MJO conditions. I knew there was something going on over there, but I just thought it was just some standard convection.

[cycloneye]

I can't even find it on the NOAA site yet! Have they not at least put a "low" (yellow) chance for it as of now?

The next Tropical Weather Outlook is at 8 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

[chzzdekr81]

I'm going out of the box and saying 97L will become Bonnie and 98L will become Colin.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cryomaniac]

Watch Bonnie quickly develop out of this disturbance.

That would be amusing in a way. Everyone is watching 97L, and all of a sudden 98L comes out of nowhere and beats it to being a TS.

[cycloneye]

Cryomaniac, that is why the tropics many times are full of twists and turns and surprises.

[xcool22]

MAYBE 2 NAMED

[JtSmarts]

Watch Bonnie quickly develop out of this disturbance.

That would be amusing in a way. Everyone is watching 97L, and all of a sudden 98L comes out of nowhere and beats it to being a TS.

It would also be interesting because (if I am remembering correctly) we had a similar situation in 2004 with Bonnie and Charley.

[cycloneye]

cperez1594, they updated the 18z best track position.

AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 927W, 20, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

I think the NHC goes with 30%, but personally I see no reason why this one won't develop though, the only problem is the system is not going to have a huge amount of time...

Still this one has nearly perfect in terms of upper conditions, just a little on the large side perhaps.