WPAC : INVEST 99W

[Typhoon10]

Yet another Invest in WPAC!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[supercane]

Huh? Don't get this one at all. Not even mentioned in JTWC's significant tropical weather outlook.

[doraboy]

99W - My personal forecast #1

Initial time: 2010/7/22 00 UTC

Now: 8.3N 136.2E Intensity: 15 KTS
+24 hours: 8.6N 132.2E Intensity: 15 KTS
+48 hours: 9.5N 128.1E Intensity: 25 KTS
+72 hours: 11.5N 124.2E Intensity: 45 KTS
+96 hours: 14.5N 120.9E Intensity: 35 KTS
+120 hours: 18.4N 118.8E Intensity: 40 KTS
+144 hours: 22.7N 118.0E Intensity: 50 KTS
+168 hours: 27.0N 118.2E Intensity: 25 KTS

PS:The Intensity is in 1-min average wind speed

[Typhoon10]

99W - My personal forecast #1

Initial time: 2010/7/22 00 UTC

Now: 8.3N 136.2E Intensity: 15 KTS
+24 hours: 8.6N 132.2E Intensity: 15 KTS
+48 hours: 9.5N 128.1E Intensity: 25 KTS
+72 hours: 11.5N 124.2E Intensity: 45 KTS
+96 hours: 14.5N 120.9E Intensity: 35 KTS
+120 hours: 18.4N 118.8E Intensity: 40 KTS
+144 hours: 22.7N 118.0E Intensity: 50 KTS
+168 hours: 27.0N 118.2E Intensity: 25 KTS

PS:The Intensity is in 1-min average wind speed

So your thinking it isnt going to be that strong? Also, the last 2 have taken a more westerly approach?

[phwxenthusiast]

99W - My personal forecast #1

look's okay...
no models (00z) showed this anyway, at least the 5 that i look at...

[dexterlabio]

Let's see if the convection bursts are gonna die out within the next few hours. Is that area in the Philippine sea favorable for cyclone formations to take place at the moment?

[KWT]

Yet another system that will likely develop in a similar region of the basin as the last few, this area is as keen on development as the BoC and the western Gulf in the Atkantic recently!

[wyq614]

99W - My personal forecast #1

Initial time: 2010/7/22 00 UTC

Now: 8.3N 136.2E Intensity: 15 KTS
+24 hours: 8.6N 132.2E Intensity: 15 KTS
+48 hours: 9.5N 128.1E Intensity: 25 KTS
+72 hours: 11.5N 124.2E Intensity: 45 KTS
+96 hours: 14.5N 120.9E Intensity: 35 KTS
+120 hours: 18.4N 118.8E Intensity: 40 KTS
+144 hours: 22.7N 118.0E Intensity: 50 KTS
+168 hours: 27.0N 118.2E Intensity: 25 KTS

PS:The Intensity is in 1-min average wind speed

Your small program? And from 144 to 168 it moves to the north that quickly??

[Chacor]

Well, that forward speed would only be 10 knots, so not impossible.

I find the forecast highly implausible though, personally.

[Typhoon10]

Does it look like it will amount to anything? Can anyone educate me how to interpret whether a Invest is likely to develop? Thx

[supercane]

Doraboy, what is your prognostic reasoning?

[Typhoon Hunter]

99W - My personal forecast #1

Initial time: 2010/7/22 00 UTC

Now: 8.3N 136.2E Intensity: 15 KTS
+24 hours: 8.6N 132.2E Intensity: 15 KTS
+48 hours: 9.5N 128.1E Intensity: 25 KTS
+72 hours: 11.5N 124.2E Intensity: 45 KTS
+96 hours: 14.5N 120.9E Intensity: 35 KTS
+120 hours: 18.4N 118.8E Intensity: 40 KTS
+144 hours: 22.7N 118.0E Intensity: 50 KTS
+168 hours: 27.0N 118.2E Intensity: 25 KTS

PS:The Intensity is in 1-min average wind speed

Welcome to the forum and nice to see such an enthusiastic first post - an explanation of thoughts behind the forecast would be a good addition too.

There's moderate shear over the system and it looks pretty disorganised so I don't expect it to develop much at the moment. Certainly one to keep an eye on though.

[dexterlabio]

Is this the one close to Mindanao area? I just notice some thick cluster of clouds somewhere east of Mindanao, and I think this is supposed to be 99W, and by the way I don't think this system has a chance of developing into a storm. What do you guys think?

[stormer]

The structure of 99w can not further consolidate and only be the disordered convective area over the region. However, the formation of moonson trough over the south china sea would bring favour condition to 99w and under the higher horizontal wind shear, 99w would have deeper convection for development. 99w would then track along the moonson trough with northward movement.

[dexterlabio]

I believe this is gone now, but yet another invest 90W pops out.