ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORIES

[SouthFloridawx]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE...

11:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 22
Location: 21.9°N 75.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

[SouthFloridawx]

Tropical Depression THREE Public Advisory
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT33 KNHC 221459
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS...AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 75.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BONITA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

[cycloneye]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS
CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A
LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON
HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD
ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...
NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

BECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.
THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
EARLIER.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP
TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.9N 75.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.8N 80.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 83.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 86.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 28.0N 91.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 221459
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1500 UTC THU JUL 22 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BONITA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 75.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 75.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 80.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 75.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[SouthFloridawx]

Did you guys check out the new Warnings/Cone Interactive at the NHC for this system. I was unaware this would be available... It's pretty cool!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145913.shtml?gm_track#contents

[mf_dolphin]

That is pretty cool! thanks for the reminder.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
200 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 74.9W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM ESE OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCATION PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 200 PM
EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR SOON...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
DEPRESSION AND WILL DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA
COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 222031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 75.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
NOT STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE
DEPRESSION AND FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 1006 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANZIED THAN EARLIER TODAY WITH THE CENTER NOW
ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. THE
OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 30 KNOTS BUT ONLY A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...AS
EXPECTED...WILL RESULT IN SOME INTENSIFICATION. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LARGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH...PERHAPS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENEROUS COMPARED TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
BUT IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
AN UPPER-LOW OVER FLORIDA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AS INDICATED BY MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE CYCLONE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 22.7N 75.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 23.8N 77.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 80.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 25.5N 83.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.5N 86.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 29.0N 91.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1800Z 34.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
615 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


SUMMARY OF 615 PM EDT...2215 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 75.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 222340
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 230242
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
0300 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF BONNIE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.5W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.5W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.4N 78.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.4N 81.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 84.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.6N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 33.0N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 35.5N 92.5W...INLAND POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT33 KNHC 230242
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...CENTER OF BONNIE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 76.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF BONNIE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT43 KNHC 230249
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLIER FOUND
1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 35-39 KT. BASED ON THIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...WITH SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO REACH BOONIE AROUND 06Z.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/12.
BONNIE IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD...
BONNIE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR KEYS ON FRIDAY...AND NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 60-72 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST
72 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. HOWEVER...IT LIES
SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER.

IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BONNIE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF UPPER
LOW. THIS IS A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
BONNIE REACHES FLORIDA. THE FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...PERHAPS
RESPONDING TO SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...NOW FORECAST BONNIE TO
PEAK NEAR 60 KT OVER THE GULF. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF DO NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
AND NEITHER DO THE GLOBAL MODELS. SINCE THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 48 HR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN IN FAVOR OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 23.4N 76.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 24.4N 78.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 25.4N 81.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.5N 84.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 27.6N 87.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 30.0N 91.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0000Z 33.0N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/0000Z 35.5N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KFDM Meteorologist]

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLIER FOUND
1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 35-39 KT. BASED ON THIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...WITH SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO REACH BOONIE AROUND 06Z.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/12.
BONNIE IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD...
BONNIE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR KEYS ON FRIDAY...AND NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 60-72 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST
72 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. HOWEVER...IT LIES
SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER.

IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BONNIE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF UPPER
LOW. THIS IS A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
BONNIE REACHES FLORIDA. THE FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...PERHAPS
RESPONDING TO SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...NOW FORECAST BONNIE TO
PEAK NEAR 60 KT OVER THE GULF. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF DO NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
AND NEITHER DO THE GLOBAL MODELS. SINCE THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 48 HR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN IN FAVOR OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 23.4N 76.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 24.4N 78.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 25.4N 81.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.5N 84.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 27.6N 87.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 30.0N 91.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0000Z 33.0N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/0000Z 35.5N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 77.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF NASSAU
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF BONNIE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE
ON STANIEL CAY IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING
TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA

[somethingfunny]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 230850
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE MOVING FASTER TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER
TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA

[brunota2003]

As noted with me doing the recon data

000
WTNT43 KNHC 230859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BONNIE
HAS FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF
34 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS FEW WEST
OR NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FOUND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH. FOR NOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BONNIE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS BONNIE PASSED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AN OBSERVING SITE ON STANIEL CAY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 KT.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT BONNIE IS MOVING FASTER AND HAS TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16. BONNIE
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT DURING FIRST 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
GUIDANCE IS NOTICEABLY FASTER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART FROM THE MORE
WESTWARD INITIAL LOCATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS
REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

THE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF BONNIE IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR
STRENGTHENING. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF
BONNIE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOWS LITTLE...
IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 24.1N 78.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 25.0N 81.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 26.2N 84.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 27.6N 86.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 28.8N 89.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 31.5N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA

[brunota2003]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231138
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE NEARING SOUTH FLORIDA...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA


INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE BONNIE MOVES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER..

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE...LESS ORGANIZED...MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 81.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF
DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE
25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS. NO IMPORTANT
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE BONNIE CROSSES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALONG SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 232031
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
2100 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 81.9W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..170NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 81.9W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 81.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N 93.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 81.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS