ATL : INVEST 99L - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007251707
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2010, DB, O, 2010072512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992010
AL, 99, 2010072418, , BEST, 0, 210N, 974W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072500, , BEST, 0, 210N, 974W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072506, , BEST, 0, 210N, 975W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072512, , BEST, 0, 210N, 976W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

587
ABNT20 KNHC 251732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF
TUXPAN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED SINCE THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[KWT]

Quite possibly the most pointless invest I've ever seen!!

[ConvergenceZone]

I got all excited when I saw the 99L topic, but that was before I found out where it was located....LOL.
I was hoping maybe it was way out in the Atlantic, the old fun long trackers. I hope we get at least one of those this year....

At least 99L won't be a developing threat to the gulf. The gulf states needs a break from all the rain....

[ConvergenceZone]

Quite possibly the most pointless invest I've ever seen!!

100% agreed.....

[HURAKAN]

Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

[KWT]

This one won't develop, I'd say there is probably no more then 1-2% chance of development...I suspect the only reason why they upped it to 99L is in case we see a quick development on the far eastern side of the convection, I think 95L probably has left its mark on the NHC...

Indeed Hurakan, but even then its still pretty pointless!

[HURAKAN]

The NHC is looking more and more like the JTWC, almost every cloudmass becoming an invest!!!

10 invests in the first 2 months!

[KWT]

I wonder whether there is a concern about rainfall for an alreadyt drenched N.Mexico and thats why they decided to invest it?

[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder whether there is a concern about rainfall for an alreadyt drenched N.Mexico and thats why they decided to invest it?

KWT, I was thinking the same thing, especially since in that TWO that HURAKAN posted it mentions a flooding concern. Poor Mexico can't catch a break.....

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, I'm wondering if this will emerge on the pacific side and develop....

[Brent]

What a waste.

[KWT]

If I had to make a guess thats why they'd done it, suppose its better safe then sorry...

Convection slowly warming as the main low slowly heads further inland, probably will be a decent amount of rain.

[cycloneye]

The NHC is looking more and more like the JTWC, almost every cloudmass becoming an invest!!!

10 invests in the first 2 months!

Are you going to do the database on this?

[ROCK]

what is the point here? its already inland......From being ultra conservative to down right paranoid.. ..I dont know what they are thinking....

[Weatherfreak000]

I have to agree....rather confusing...perhaps the NHC considers a relocation over water.

[ColinDelia]

Nhc must be bored

[Ptarmigan]

Is this from Invest 98L by any chance because I remember it in the same location.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC is looking more and more like the JTWC, almost every cloudmass becoming an invest!!!

10 invests in the first 2 months!

Are you going to do the database on this?

Yes, I will update everything after August 7 (taking Calc 2 and that's the last day)