WPAC: Invest 92W

[wyq614]

East of Luzon, 14N 128E

[StormingB81]

WOnder what movement this will take..seems like everythign is mobing every which way

[Typhoon10]

Yes, I think this is the one that HKO already see's on their HKO Computer Model Forecast map. Below link shows where they think it will be in 72hrs

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nwp/nwpsfcpp72e.htm

[Typhoon Hunter]

Another invest pops up!

Shear is dropping a lot over the region whilst vorticity seems to be increasing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

Steering environment seems pretty weak right now so I guess it won't be going anywhere too quickly. Given the low shear, boiling SSTs, upper level divergence it will be one to watch!

[Typhoon10]

Another invest pops up!

Shear is dropping a lot over the region whilst vorticity seems to be increasing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

Steering environment seems pretty weak right now so I guess it won't be going anywhere too quickly. Given the low shear, boiling SSTs, upper level divergence it will be one to watch!

Hey TH,

So for us amateurs trying to learn. I think you are saying Shear drop and vorticity increasing is both good for chance of systems to develop? But it could go anywhere?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey TH,

So for us amateurs trying to learn. I think you are saying Shear drop and vorticity increasing is both good for chance of systems to develop? But it could go anywhere?

Low shear is essential for formation of tropical cyclones. I think the ridge of high pressure will steer this into the SCS slowly. GFS, CMC, NGPS all form some sort of cyclone just to the west of Luzon in a few days and have it traversing SCS towards Hainan. I wonder if this is 92W?

[doraboy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My personal forecast #1 for 92W

Source: My small program ,which called "Typhoon Predictor V4.00"

Initial time: 2010/8/16 00 UTC

[KWT]

Blimey thats real optimistic there doraboy, a peak of a massive 20kts!

[dexterlabio]

The shear east of 130 latitude is increasing, but the shear on the waters near the eastern side of the Philippines is pretty weak. By the way, I am basing my analysis to this chart: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=. If it takes more time to organize and strengthen on its current position before it moves somewhere else, then there is a high chance for it to develop. I agree with Typhoon Hunter, this is one invest to watch out for.

Sorry for the ignorance, but what does upper level divergence contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones? Alll I know at this point are the shear's effect on a system, high STT's contributing to a system's consolidation and the steering environment affecting a system's movements, but I don't know much about this upper level divergence. Thanks.

[dexterlabio]

I guess this is the one they're referring to.

[Typhoon Hunter]

The shear east of 130 latitude is increasing, but the shear on the waters near the eastern side of the Philippines is pretty weak. By the way, I am basing my analysis to this chart: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=. If it takes more time to organize and strengthen on its current position before it moves somewhere else, then there is a high chance for it to develop. I agree with Typhoon Hunter, this is one invest to watch out for.

Sorry for the ignorance, but what does upper level divergence contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones? Alll I know at this point are the shear's effect on a system, high STT's contributing to a system's consolidation and the steering environment affecting a system's movements, but I don't know much about this upper level divergence. Thanks.

Very basically upper level divergence helps ventilate the storm as the air moves upwards and then spreads outwards. I'm sure someone like KWT or a pro-met could explain in a more expert manner!

[Typhoon10]

I know HKO's Computer Prediction model is always reliable, but their 72hr model now shows as not much happening!

[Typhoon10]

Gone from NRL site already!

[dexterlabio]

^Yeah. I'm surprised to see the convection dies out quickly. Well I'm not sure what's happening to it though this tells me that something nasty has affected it.

[Typhoon Hunter]

It has very clear strong curved bands and what looks to be a pretty solid circulation (I know we don't have vis satellite right now) approaching an almost zero shear environment with plenty of moist air and boilings SSTs. God only knows why they dropped this after only 12 hours....

[Chacor]

Should be approaching diurnal fluctuations around now, maybe that's playing a part.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd not be quite so quick to dismiss it but then again given the way this season has gone in the WPAC probably nothing will come of it!

[dhoeze]

But it left something... trying to form...

[StormingB81]

I do not know the conditions around that area however that looks liek a pretty good storm.

[dexterlabio]

It failed to develop before hitting the land mass, but the disturbance far east of the Philippines caught my attention now.