ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[perk]

It looks like some banding features are developing, IMO it already looks better than TD2

Totally agree.

[wxman57]

Fairly clear surface low there as evidence by surface obs. Clear-cut track - NW and inland by tomorrow. The only threat is more heavy rain for Mexico.

[tailgater]

Since nobody answered on the other thread, is this the former 11E crossing over?

I would say yes since the vortex was trackable as it crossed Mexico.

[tailgater]

From the NHC
RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS

None of the Mexician radars I have in that area are working. Does anyone have a site for that area that does work?

[loon]

looks like it could push some rain up our way as well... could use a little rain

(or I should say there is just a lot of moisture in the GOM right now headed our way that should get pushed ashore as the invest moves more north)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Portastorm]

Fairly clear surface low there as evidence by surface obs. Clear-cut track - NW and inland by tomorrow. The only threat is more heavy rain for Mexico.

In terms of "threat", I would add the Valley as well, 57. They could be looking at several inches of rainfall in the first half of this next week.

[Vortmax1]

The RGV has taken a hard hit because of rainfall from these storms so far this season.
It's coming again:

[cperez1594]

This is my neck of the woods, hmm intresting up to 60% might be a lot of rain headed for us in South Texas. NWS has issued a Special statement....

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTENSIVE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO A WEAK TROPICAL LOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE
STEADILY MOVING NORTH. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SMALL LOW OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FUTURE STRENGTH AND TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT A STEADY
NORTHWEST MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE
HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE LOWER VALLEY
AND TRACKS NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER VALLEY LATE TUESDAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLY 4 TO 6 INCHES
LOCALLY AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE GROUND
COULD BECOME SATURATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALSO...WITH
RESERVOIRS IN THE AREA REMAINING FULL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER...AS WELL AS ON
LOCAL ARROYOS AND CREEKS...IS LIKELY AS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
FILLS INTO THESE AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

CASTILLO/SPEECE/BOGORAD

[wxman57]

Fairly clear surface low there as evidence by surface obs. Clear-cut track - NW and inland by tomorrow. The only threat is more heavy rain for Mexico.

In terms of "threat", I would add the Valley as well, 57. They could be looking at several inches of rainfall in the first half of this next week.

Is the Valley still flooding from July's storms? Didn't realize a few inches of rain would be a problem for them. Of course if the low tracks in farther north than near Tampico then it could be more than a few inches.

[cperez1594]

Fairly clear surface low there as evidence by surface obs. Clear-cut track - NW and inland by tomorrow. The only threat is more heavy rain for Mexico.

In terms of "threat", I would add the Valley as well, 57. They could be looking at several inches of rainfall in the first half of this next week.

Is the Valley still flooding from July's storms? Didn't realize a few inches of rain would be a problem for them. Of course if the low tracks in farther north than near Tampico then it could be more than a few inches.

The floodway still has some water in it, not as high as it was in beginning of August but the Arroyo Colorado the water is half way full still. So might be a good threat any rain will not be good for us

[Migle]

Is there any chance recon will have time to get out there?

[HURAKAN]

Is there any chance recon will have time to get out there?

scheduled for tomorrow

[Portastorm]

As our friend cperez1594 can attest, it doesn't take much down there to create hazardous conditions. I was down there last week for work and I'll be heading down there again on Tuesday. Some water levels I saw were still fairly high.

With apologies to Vera Cruz, do your best wxman57 to coax this thing into their area, ok?!

[loon]

my mother is the director of imaging at valley baptist in brownsville and another hospital in harling... their emergency planning always has some level of flooding from those areas cperez is talking about. From her stories it seems it never takes much to get real problems with flooding

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cperez1594]

Good Vorticity in the Southwest Area of the BOC

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

What's this area? It looks like there are two rotations with this system.

[Portastorm]

Interesting loop, Karl. Competing low centers?

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a broad area of elongated 'low pressure' from just E of Veracruz extending NE.