ATL: KARL - Advisories

[southerngale]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 142051
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/
BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM KARL. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL
WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

AT THIS TIME...KARL IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE... A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTNT23 KNHC 142048
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
2100 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/
BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 84.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 84.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 83.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.9N 86.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.6N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.4N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 92.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT43 KNHC 142052
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND
VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13. KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION. WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.3N 84.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.9N 86.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.6N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/0600Z 20.4N 90.3W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 92.6W 35 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 96.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 142344
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING
FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE AND NASA
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 150243
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...KARL EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 85.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 150243
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KARL
EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT
AND SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 34-39 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER AS IT EXITED THE STORM. THESE DATA WERE THE BASIS FOR
THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT
TIME...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE NEXT AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH KARL
AROUND 0600 UTC.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND A COUPLE OF RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE KARL REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE
GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW KARL
AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODEL
AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL TO HURRICANE STATUS
AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED. KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASED SPREAD THEREAFTER...AS SOME OF THE
MODELS TURN KARL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.6N 85.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 87.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.0N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/1200Z 20.7N 91.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.1N 93.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 96.7W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[FogbowBlue]

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KARL
EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT
AND SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 34-39 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER AS IT EXITED THE STORM. THESE DATA WERE THE BASIS FOR
THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT
TIME...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE NEXT AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH KARL
AROUND 0600 UTC.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND A COUPLE OF RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE KARL REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE
GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW KARL
AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODEL
AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL TO HURRICANE STATUS
AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED. KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASED SPREAD THEREAFTER...AS SOME OF THE
MODELS TURN KARL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.6N 85.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 87.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.0N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/1200Z 20.7N 91.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.1N 93.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 96.7W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL HEADED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 86.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.....PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 86.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KARL COULD
APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WHERE KARL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
0900 UTC WED SEP 15 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 86.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 86.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 86.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.7N 92.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.3N 94.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.4N 97.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 86.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL EARLY
THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 995 MB AND THE MAXIMUM UNCONTAMINATED
SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND VELOCITIES WERE ABOUT 55 KT...WHICH IS
THE VALUE USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT A RATHER SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
IS DEVELOPING OVER KARL...SO SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL. FORTUNATELY...THE TIME IS SHORT BEFORE THE
CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST.

KARL WOBBLED WESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 285/11...HAS
RESUMED. BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFORE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRACK APPEARS LIKELY...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.5N 86.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 19.1N 88.3W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 16/0600Z 20.0N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.7N 92.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 21.3N 94.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 21.4N 97.2W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...CENTER OF KARL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 87.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KARL COULD
APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WHERE KARL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT BANCO CHINCHORRO
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR...AND A WIND
GUST OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

520
WTNT33 KNHC 151438
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 88.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
THEN EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA AND WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TODAY.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING
WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE
TODAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

898
WTNT43 KNHC 151440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE CENTER OF KARL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 1245 UTC. BEFORE LANDFALL...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 991 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 50-55
KT. BASED ON THIS...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.
DATA FROM THE RADAR IN BELIZE CITY SHOWED THAT KARL WAS DEVELOPING
AN EYE AT LANDFALL...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OTHER EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST IT REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DEPARTED.

KARL HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/12. KARL REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS
MODELS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE TWO MODEL CAMPS AND LIE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS. THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.

KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ONCE THE CENTER REACHES
WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY
ALL GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR KARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO. KARL SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER ITS
SECOND LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
BY 120 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 18.6N 88.2W 50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.1N 89.7W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 16/1200Z 20.1N 91.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 17/0000Z 20.9N 93.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 21.3N 95.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 98.0W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1200Z 21.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 88.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
THEN EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER CROSSES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING
WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE
TODAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 89.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF KARL WILL EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND KARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING
WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



WTNT43 KNHC 152032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KARL IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR
INDICATE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION...BUT
THIS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THERE ARE
NO OBSERVATION AVAILABLE NEAR THE CORE...AND THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/13. THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF INDICATING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDN A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION ON THE LEFT. SEVERAL OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW
FORECAST KARL TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND ALSO FORECAST A TURN TO SOUTH OF WEST
MOTION NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
REFLECTS BOTH OF THESE POSSIBILITIES...WITH THE NEW TRACK BEING
SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER
36 HR.

KARL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HR.
ONCE THE CENTER REACHES WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE HWRF...WHILE FORECASTING STRENGTHENING...HAS CONSISTENTLY
KEPT KARL AT LESS THAN HURRICANE STRENGTH. GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KARL TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THE FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF
70 KT...BUT KARL COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN THAT BETWEEN THE 48 AND
72 HR FORECAST POINTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 19.0N 89.4W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 16/0600Z 19.6N 90.9W 30 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 92.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 21.1N 94.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 21.3N 95.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 98.5W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1800Z 21.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 90.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF KARL WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND KARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER A SMALL
AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 160238
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 90.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KARL SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEARING THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS OVER WATER JUST WEST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. KARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE
METEOROLOGICAL STATION AT CHETUMAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
MEASURED NEARLY 7 INCHES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KARL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT43 KNHC 160239
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

DESPITE KARL BEING OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THERE IS A RING OF
VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR AREA WHICH RESEMBLES AN
EYE FEATURE...PROBABLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL
VIGOROUS AT THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO RAINBANDS MAINLY OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE OUTSTANDING STRUCTURE ON
SATELLITE AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH
PREVAILS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE THE CIRCULATION MOVES BACK OVER
WATER. KARL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING KARL.

KARL APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 13 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KARL ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
FORECAST KEEPS KARL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BRINGS KARL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING KARL ANCHORED IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 22 DEGREES NORTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 19.4N 90.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 19.9N 92.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 17/0000Z 20.7N 93.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 97.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 99.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0000Z 21.0N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[abajan]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...KARL MOVING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 91.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...KARL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OVER WATER
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND KARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN
_________________________________________________________________

000
WTNT33 KNHC 160856
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 91.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM BARRA
DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...KARL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KARL COULD BECOMES A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 160859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

THE CENTER OF KARL EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 0330 AND
0400 UTC AFTER MAINTAINING AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
LAND...WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN INFRARED
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. FOR THIS ADVISORY THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
WIND FIELD WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN UP AFTER MOVING OVER WATER.
KARL SEEMS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
VERY WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO...
GIVEN THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...KARL WILL
LIKELY HAVE MORE TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MEXICO.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT AROUND THE
TIME OF LANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 KT. KARL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL STEER KARL WILL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE THE MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
CYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF...HAS SLOWED
AND SHIFTED SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS AND THE TVCN
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 19.8N 91.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 20.3N 93.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.7N 94.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 21.0N 96.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 21.1N 97.4W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0600Z 21.0N 103.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[abajan]

Oops... double post. Mods, please delete.

[poof121]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 161224
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1230 UTC THU SEP 16 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 92.2W AT 16/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 40SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 92.2W AT 16/1230Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.1N 93.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 94.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.8N 96.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W...INLAND POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 92.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[poof121]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 161224
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT KARL WAS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY ABOUT 30 N MI. THE PLANE
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
WINDS SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO SHIFT THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1230Z 19.7N 92.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 20.1N 93.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.5N 94.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.8N 96.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...KARL MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 93.3W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND KARL COULD
APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
MEXICAN COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 162044
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...KARL STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 93.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA
SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 977
MB...28.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 162045
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KARL IS
STRENGTHENING. A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 977 MB...AND THERE WERE TWO SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 69 KT FROM
THE SFMR. IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL
SUPPORTS 70 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 83 KT AT 12000 FT. THESE DATA SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 70 KT.

KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
MODELS SHOWING ANY NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION BEFORE
LANDFALL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL AND A
SOUTH OF WEST MOTION THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS...BUT TO THE
NORTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
STEADILY AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY. THE LGEM...SHIPS...GFDL...AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST KARL TO BECOME A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A
85 KT LANDFALL INTENSITY AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
96 HR IF NOT SOONER.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS REQUIRED WARNINGS TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS COMPARED TO
36 HOURS FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT
OF TIME AVAILABLE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.6N 93.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 19.7N 94.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 96.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 19.6N 97.6W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 99.1W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.0N 102.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 162354
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...HURRICANE KARL AMING AT THE COAST OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL
CONTINUE CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA