ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009300744
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010093006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972010
AL, 97, 2010092906, , BEST, 0, 127N, 356W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010092912, , BEST, 0, 128N, 375W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010092918, , BEST, 0, 129N, 394W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010093000, , BEST, 0, 130N, 413W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010093006, , BEST, 0, 131N, 432W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Discuss away, peeps.

[knotimpaired]

Good morning,

Lets keep in mind that this invest is for the 2nd wave, not the one rapidly approching the Leewards.

Personally I am interested in the 1st one since it affects us in the coming days.

[AJC3]

Latest image from NRL...

IR


MI

[ColinDelia]

According to SHIPS, Shear will be 13-17 knots for the next 36 hours and then 20-25 knots from 48-84 hours
Ocean temps around 29C

[abajan]

... Lets keep in mind that this invest is for the 2nd wave, not the one rapidly approching the Leewards ...

Yep. Originally the wrong thread in Talkin' Tropics was locked. (I was up early enough to see that mistake ) EDIT (9:44 AM local): It was no mistake after all because the two systems have now merged.

If the early model runs pan out, looks like most of the Lesser Antilles will be in the clear but it’s early days yet.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Shuriken]

It sure looks like the two "yellows" are merging into what appears to have the potential to be a very large system: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-ir2.html

[ColinDelia]

About the SHIPS output I mentioned. That assumes the BAMM track.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From CrownWeather
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Thursday, September 30, 2010 525 am ET/425 am CT

Elsewhere In The Tropical Atlantic:
For the rest of the tropical Atlantic, I am relying heavily on the European model and its forecasts. The Euro model continues to be supported by the Canadian model in its forecasts of what may happen in the Caribbean, near the Bahamas and also east of the Lesser Antilles over the next 7 to 10 days. It should be noted that the NHC has classified a tropical disturbance now near 13.1 North Latitude, 43.2 West Longitude Invest 97-L. This is not the disturbance that is approaching the Lesser Antilles but the one just to its east.

The entire area from the Caribbean northeastward to the area north of the Greater Antilles and also the area east of the Lesser Antilles is one big convoluted mess!! I think this entire area is ripe for tropical development over the next week to 10 days or so. The biggest threat right now may be the disturbance now designated Invest 97-L which is located about 1100 miles or so east of the Lesser Antilles. This particular disturbance is tracking to the west at a forward speed of 15 to 20 mph and environmental conditions should be favorable for development over the next few days.

The latest European model forecast shows that Invest 97-L may try to develop into a tropical cyclone when its just north of Puerto Rico late this weekend and potentially affect the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos Islands around the middle of next week before lifting northward and northeastward into the open Atlantic.

Another area of concern will be the western Caribbean as some of the model guidance hints at tropical cyclone development there towards later next week. It should be noted that the model guidance has been very inconsistent on how this development will occur and what type of track it will take, so I have low confidence on how this type of development will occur, except to say that development in the western Caribbean is quite possible next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Friday.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NICOLE...LOCATED
ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...AND WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN
SQUALLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALSO
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[GCANE]

Still pretty much a wave at this point with steady stratiform precip.

A warm core is present in the mid troposphere but there is a boundary-layer inversion which is limiting deep convection from firing.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL
WAVES...IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ARE CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



They combined the two waves.

[GCANE]

Sorry, I showed old data from RAMDISS on the LLC.

Best Track has location of 97L at 13.1N 43.2W.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Gustywind]

Huge system... two for the price of one , does not sound good. Looks like wet weather should be really in store for the islands. Let's continue to monitor this feature.

[expat2carib]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL
WAVES...IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ARE CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



They combined the two waves.

MMMM..... The NHC more or less merged two tropical waves (pouch PG151L and this one) into one system.

So is this "system" now PG151L as well? Should the threads be merged?

[Gustywind]

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Will this system(s) lift quickly north, less it hit S. America? Is getting caught in the ITCZ no longer a problem this late in the season? Thanks, novice here.

[DESTRUCTION5]

By the looks of where this may come together it may be a carrlbean cruiser...,

[GCANE]

Yesterday, it looked liked it could have had a problem with dry air.

Today, MIMIC-TPW is showing it has successfully cut-off the possible dry-air intrusion.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lay04.html

[boca]

Nah this will go north of the islands

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_97.gif