ATL: PAULA - Recon Discussion

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:54 am

will RECON find TD 18? I wouldn't be surprised if they find Paula

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:01 am

I agree about maybe they find a TS.

#3 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:02 am

If they find a TS, I think they might put out a special advisory. Less likely they would do so with a TD IMO.

KWT · #4 Postby **KWT** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:04 am

Given this is more or less overland EJ I reckon they actually probably would issue a special advisory if recon finds something...

#5 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:12 am

I agree, if its a TD they would have to put up a special advisory and TS warnings, as there will surely be gusts that strong.

#6 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:40 am

They would need a Special Advisory to issue anything since it would be outside normal advisory times and it would need to be initiated with warnings.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:29 am

Who wants to continue posting the recon data?

#8 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:03 pm

They should begin descending soon.

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:08 pm

descending to operational level

#10 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:22 pm

44 knot SFMR that is uncontaminated. Can you say TS Paula?

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:24 pm

What is the reduction depending on how high they are flying?

#12 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:28 pm

Well take your pick from which TS force SFMR reading you want. There's plenty of them.

#13 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:What is the reduction depending on how high they are flying?

At the level they are at now, probably around 90%. At the earliest level, around 85%.

#14 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:43 pm

53 knot flight level winds.... Not even a TD? lol......

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:44 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:53 knot flight level winds.... Not even a TD? lol......

53 knots were flagged

#16 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:46 pm

Ah thank you, so only 49 knots then. Nice.

#17 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:47 pm

The 53 kt flagged is for the SFMR, not the flight-level winds. Overall data supports a 45 kt intensity.

#18 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:50 pm

Going back in eh?

#19 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:51 pm

Yes, looks like they missed the center and want to get closer to the coast.

#20 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:03 pm

I got to go, anyone can take over the HDOBs and graphics