ATL: RICHARD - Models

[Typhoon_Willie]

Lets start the 99L models thread here.

[cycloneye]

Towards the EPAC

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 170012
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0012 UTC SUN OCT 17 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101017 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101017  0000   101017  1200   101018  0000   101018  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.5N  80.8W    9.5N  82.2W    9.6N  83.4W    9.9N  84.3W
BAMD     9.5N  80.8W    9.7N  82.7W    9.8N  84.5W   10.1N  86.3W
BAMM     9.5N  80.8W    9.7N  82.5W    9.8N  84.1W   10.0N  85.5W
LBAR     9.5N  80.8W    9.9N  82.5W   10.8N  84.4W   12.0N  86.3W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          33KTS          44KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          25KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101019  0000   101020  0000   101021  0000   101022  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.3N  84.8W   11.2N  85.5W   11.3N  86.1W   10.4N  87.0W
BAMD    10.4N  87.8W   10.7N  90.0W   10.4N  91.7W    9.5N  94.0W
BAMM    10.1N  86.6W   10.6N  87.9W   10.1N  88.5W    8.2N  89.1W
LBAR    13.6N  87.7W   17.1N  88.3W   19.6N  86.2W   21.2N  84.5W
SHIP        53KTS          69KTS          79KTS          83KTS
DSHP        38KTS          55KTS          64KTS          69KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.5N LONCUR =  80.8W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =   9.8N LONM12 =  79.8W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =   9.8N LONM24 =  78.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[SouthDadeFish]

I don't think the models are handling the broad center of this area well. It will hang around in the SW Carib much longer than just a day as seen above.

[Macrocane]

A hurricane in the EPAC doesn't sound to realistic at this point, let's wait for aother couple of days and the models will be more reliable IMO. By the way, thanks God that clp5 is a bad "model" because it brings the system right over me :S.

[gatorcane]

The 00z NAM does not move this into Central America. Looks like a large area of convection festers in the western caribbean. This is 60 hours from now

[boca]

If 99L moves west it will most likely be deactivated.

[SouthDadeFish]

If 99L moves west it will most likely be deactivated.

It wont move west as fast as the BAM suite says. I'm not saying it won't move into Central America, but not in one day. The global models have a better handle on this than the BAMs.

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z GFS shows a closed low formed by 36 hours.

[HURAKAN]

00z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

Still in the Southern Caribbean at 54 hours

[gatorcane]

00z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

Still in the Southern Caribbean at 54 hours

Yes but the 500mb ridge is centered off to the northeast. Looks like it could head into the northwest Caribbean on this run.

[gatorcane]

Already more nw than the 18z gfs by 66 hours.

[gatorcane]

Looks like it moves inland into Honduras at 84 to 90 hours. But that is a large weakness not to hit. Looks like a stronger more quickly developing system in this case is going to head north but a more shallow, slower developing system drifts west into central America.

[cycloneye]

Crossover to EPAC and develops there at 162 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

[Macrocane]

It's hard for me to believe that something could develop in the EPAC at this time of years especially because it's a La Niña, but that would be a very interesting scenario and not only from a scientific point of view but also because Guatemala and El Salvador may be affected again by an EPAC cyclone.

[LarryWx]

It's hard for me to believe that something could develop in the EPAC at this time of years especially because it's a La Niña, but that would be a very interesting scenario and not only from a scientific point of view but also because Guatemala and El Salvador may be affected again by an EPAC cyclone.

Despite the lack of current model support, I still wouldn't give up on a TC that develops in the W. Caribbean and doesn't hit C.A.

[wxman57]

No development in the Caribbean on 00Z or 06Z GFS - it develops a low in the East Pac instead. Canadian is similar.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 171248
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC SUN OCT 17 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101017 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101017  1200   101018  0000   101018  1200   101019  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.5N  78.2W   12.0N  79.7W   12.4N  81.3W   13.1N  82.7W
BAMD    11.5N  78.2W   12.2N  79.7W   13.0N  81.2W   14.0N  82.5W
BAMM    11.5N  78.2W   12.2N  79.7W   12.9N  81.2W   13.6N  82.6W
LBAR    11.5N  78.2W   12.2N  79.8W   13.4N  81.3W   14.8N  82.4W
SHIP        20KTS          22KTS          27KTS          36KTS
DSHP        20KTS          22KTS          27KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101019  1200   101020  1200   101021  1200   101022  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  84.0W   14.7N  86.0W   14.3N  88.1W   13.1N  90.9W
BAMD    15.1N  83.4W   16.9N  83.9W   17.7N  83.6W   17.6N  84.9W
BAMM    14.3N  83.7W   14.8N  85.1W   13.5N  86.3W   11.2N  88.8W
LBAR    16.2N  82.8W   18.5N  81.8W   20.0N  80.0W   23.0N  78.7W
SHIP        44KTS          57KTS          65KTS          74KTS
DSHP        34KTS          28KTS          27KTS          35KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.5N LONCUR =  78.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  11.1N LONM12 =  76.9W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  10.9N LONM24 =  75.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[wxman57]

Note the significant change on the initialization point from 06z-12z. 12Z 00hr is way ENE of the 06Z point. This can be seen on the model graphic above. Probably won't mean much in the grand scheme of things, though. But it does give the system more time over water.

[gatorcane]

nam shows a large weakness to the north at 84 hours

[caneseddy]

12z GFS has same scenario as before even though it initialized 99L more ENE that the 06z run...weak system moving into Nicaragua, crossing into the EPAC and strengthening while running parallel to Central America on the Pacific side