#66 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:31 am
The 0600z warning from IMD has this at 90 knots.
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘GIRI’ ADVISORY NO. NINE ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 22nd OCTOBER 2010 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 22nd OCTOBER.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “GIRI” OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2010 OVER THE NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 19.0N AND LONG.93.0E, ABOUT 150 KM SOUTH OF SITTWE (MYANMAR) AND 110 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR), 240 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TEKNAF (BANGLADESH) AND 650 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (WEST BENGAL, INDIA).
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 964 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EYE PATTERN WITH FURTHER ORGANISATION. THE EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED FROM 20 KM AT 0300 UTC TO 15 KM AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY INDICATING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 5.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 16.0ºN AND 21.0ºN AND LONGITUDE EAST OF 90.0ºE.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND ( -80ºC) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. KYAUKPYU REPORTED LOWEST PRESSURE OF 999 HPA AND SURFACE WIND OF SOUTHEASTERLY 20 KNOTS AND 24 HOURS PRESSURE CHANGE OF MINUS 10.4 HPA.
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE (48062) AND KYAUKPYU (48071) BY TODAY, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2010 BETWEEN 1200 AND 1500 UTC. SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 170-180 KMPH GUSTING TO 200 KMPH WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND OFF ABOVE COAST AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION (LAT. ºN/ LONG. ºE) SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
22-10-2010/0600 19.0/93.0 160-170 gusting to 190
22-10-2010/1200 19.5/93.5 180-190 gusting to 210
22-10-2010/1800 20.0/94.0 180-190 gusting to 210
23-10-2010/0000 20.5/94.5 100-110 gusting to 125
23-10-2010/1200 22.0/95.5 55-65 gusting to 75
24-10-2010/0000 23.0/96.5 30-40 gusting to 50
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE
STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 2.5-3.5 METRES ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL NEAR THE LANDFALL POINT.
REMARK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS DECREASING TREND AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28º-30º C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 21ºN AT 200 HPA LEVEL. THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
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