NIO (BOB): INVEST 90B [JTWC: POOR]

[Chacor]

ABIO10 PGTW 140800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/140800Z-141800ZNOV2010//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N 92.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA HAS ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFIED
OVER THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 140305Z 37GHZ
PARTIAL TRMM IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING ORGANIZING AROUND THE
LLCC. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF
THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 10-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, BUT AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAY OF BENGAL IS SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. NO STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE
DEVELOPED THUS FAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.
(1).//

[RobWESTPACWX]

UPGRADED TO FAIR

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 89.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 820 NAUTICAL MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. THE LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED AND DEEPENED DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS AS SUPPORTED BY A RECENTLY FORMED CONVECTIVE BAND ON
THE WESTERN FLANK. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
ALBEIT BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST OF THE
CONVECTION, THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 142005Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW 15-20 KNOTS OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HOWEVER A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT FLOW
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS EMERGED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSTIY FIX
AT 142330Z. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. IN VIEW OF THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE MORE DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[RobWESTPACWX]

So... What is going on here, why can't I get any sat images of the I/O since 00Z, is METOSAT down?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya, I started my sentence with so. LOL

[RobWESTPACWX]

A little organized now, I wouldn't be surprised if this goes TCFA.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Grifforzer]

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 15 2010
====================================

Vortex over southeast Bay of Bengal centered near 10.5N 88.5E. Dvorak intensity is T1.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.0N and from 84.0N to 89.0E. Wind shear near the system is between 5-10 knots indicating intensification of the system.

Bay of Bengal & Andaman Sea
===========================

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over Bay of Bengal between rest of southeast Bay and east central Bay of Bengal between 14.0N to 17.0N and 85.0E to 91.0E, including south Andaman Sea. Scattered low/medium clouds with embedded weak to moderate convection over rest Bay of Bengal south of 17.0N and rest of Andaman Sea.

Arabian Sea
===========

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over east central Arabian Sea between east of 70.0E southeast parts of west central Arabian Sea. Scattered low/medium clouds with embedded isolated weak to moderate convection over rest central Arabian Sea and southeast Arabian Sea.

http://www.webcitation.org/5uFmrnAOh

[RobWESTPACWX]

Back down to a Poor...

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
89.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. THOUGH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
CAN BE VERIFIED IN A 151200Z TMI MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE ACCOMPANYING
CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED AND HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THE LLCC HAS
MORE RECENTLY BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. DRY
AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE BASIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION AND IS LIKELY DAMPENING THE CONVECTION. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL IS RESTRICTING OUTFLOW
AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO SLOW FROM ITS CURRENT SPEED OF
15 KNOTS IF IT IS TO CONSOLIDATE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER INDIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.