SIO: TROPICAL LOW (15U/14S)

[HURAKAN]

shear taking its toll

[Chacor]

AXAU01 APRF 120736
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0735 UTC 12/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.9S
Longitude: 99.0E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/1800: 21.1S 96.7E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 999
+24: 13/0600: 21.0S 94.7E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 999
+36: 13/1800: 20.8S 93.2E: 150 [280]: 025 [045]: 1002
+48: 14/0600: 20.7S 91.7E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1002
+60: 14/1800: 20.7S 90.3E: 230 [430]: 025 [045]: 1002
+72: 15/0600: 21.0S 88.7E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000 1002
REMARKS:
Position fair, based on animated FY2 VIS and persistence.

The system is sheared with the LLCC fully exposed and is weakening. The low is
no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Dvorak: DT=1.5 based on shear pattern, <1 1/4 deg from strong T gradient, at
0600UTC . MET=PAT=2.0. FT=1.5 based on DT. CI held at 2.0 as storm weakens.

Forecast track based on a consensus of models, which continue to steer the
system to the west, under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south of the
system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.