ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[NDG]

They ran models again on 94L tonight, first time since last night.

[Bobo2000]

This invest could develop off the Gulf Stream and become a depression. I looked at Tropical Depression One of 09' and it faced harder conditions than 94L. Hold on little buddy, you'll get there. Just keep fighting.

______________________________
Do you Smell what he is COOKING

[tailgater]

The 850mb vorticity is the strongest it's been since it's inception.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF

It just happens to be under the most shear MID\Upper level in the basin.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... idshrZ.GIF
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF

If it moves northward as progged conditions get SLIGHTLY better

[wxman57]

Development chances close to zero. Tremendous shear and SSTs drop fast as it moves north. Already in sub-80F water.

[Bobo2000]

The invest is either going to get swallowed by a extratropical storm or just die out in the cold Arctic waters.


_____________________________
Do you Smell what he is COOKING?
or Do you SEE ME?

[supercane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
PRODUCING A AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM
CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[NDG]

My poor little friend:

[OuterBanker]

LOL. 94l has the most persistant little llc I've seen in a while. As long as we have that upper level shear it will never develop. It doesn't look like that has even the slightest chance of happening.

Then again it has been a week now and it's still there.

To be honest though, the Atlantic is still too hostile to permit any development.

And very typical I might add.

[HURAKAN]

Jim, please report again to the 94L headquarters!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

For the second time is deactivated

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106121416
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[brunota2003]

Even though it has been deactivated, it sure does have a tight LLC, and it is moving to the southeast:

[Frank2]

At least it's a sheared LLC at this point...

P.S. It did rain early last evening - a good thunderstorm with 2.75 inches of rain to my west, and enough that it put out the Everglades brush fire - guess my nose was a week slow (lol), but more likely it's a good lesson that God send the help when it's needed, and not when we think it's needed - had the rain come last Monday it would have not been at the right time to put out the fire...

I was out at the fire line yesterday morning and the smoke cloud extended up to approximately 10,000 feet...

Frank

[thetruesms]

At least it's a sheared LLC at this point...

P.S. It did rain early last evening - a good thunderstorm with 2.75 inches of rain to my west, and enough that it put out the Everglades brush fire - guess my nose was a week slow (lol), but more likely it's a good lesson that God send the help when it's needed, and not when we think it's needed - had the rain come last Monday it would have not been at the right time to put out the fire...

I was out at the fire line yesterday morning and the smoke cloud extended up to approximately 10,000 feet...

Frank

well, put out is a little strong, but it is nice to have it almost fully contained and move on to mopup with this one.