SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[JTE50]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/SHGMSCOL.JPG

[Crostorm]

[KWT]

You can see that dry slot there wrapping around the center, reminds me an awful lot of Ike right now with its massive circulation...

[Macrocane]

Yeah it looks very Ike-ish, storm surge may be higher than normal because of its size.

[CrazyC83]

My guess is the current intensity is 85 kt given its size and formation. But I think the pressure is really low for its intensity, down in the 940s probably.

[KWT]

Yeah and I bet its IKE is through the roof right now as well!

Recent images suggests its sorting out its inner core issues...thats NOT a good sign for those in NE Australia, eye getting btter established again.

If that does happen then the 4/5 range is back on as a possible outcome...

[JTE50]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/SHGMSVS.JPG

[KatDaddy]

A very large TC. I remember IKE like yesterday when he pounded our area. I cant imagine the renewed flooding that will likely occur for Australia.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:09am EST on Tuesday the 1st of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Cooktown to Sarina.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Lockhart River to
Cooktown and Sarina to Yeppoon and for southern Cape York Peninsula and inland
areas north of Charters Towers.

At 10:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 3 was estimated to be
1220 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 1200 kilometres east northeast of
Townsville
moving west at 35 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves west over the Coral
Sea.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI, CATEGORY 3, with gusts up to 220 km/h is currently
moving in a westerly direction at 35km/hr but is expected to turn on a more
west-southwesterly direction in the next 12 hours.

DAMAGING winds with gusts to 100km/hr are expected to develop on the islands
during Wednesday morning and extend onto the coast during the day and extend
inland across southern Cape York Peninsula and north of Charters Towers
overnight Wednesday.

These winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in excess of 125km/hr about the
coast and islands late Wednesday between Cooktown and Townsville.


People between Cooktown and Sarina should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property [using available daylight
hours/before nightfall].
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People between Lockhart River and Cooktown and between Sarina and Yeppoon, and
southern Cape York Peninsula and inland north of Charters Towers should consider
what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.0 degrees South 156.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 35 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST Tuesday 01 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[HURAKAN]

consensus unmovable

[KWT]

Thats a very worrying track, a large and powerful Cyclone on that track is going to cause carnage...

Looking good now it has to be said.

[Blown Away]

IMO, the landfall will be closer to Cooktown. Scary looking setup, looks like a Charlie type system.

[Rod Hagen]

The track progression northwards is good for central and southern Queensland, though it looks disastrous for Cairns, which may well become Australia's Galveston and Gilchrist if the projections are right.

What also worries me, though, is that it is reaching the sort of point northwards where we often see TC's jump Cape York and then get re-invigorated in the Gulf of Carpentaria (which currently has sea temps over the 30ºC mark) , before howling through the Northern Territory to the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf (which also has sea temps in the 30ºC range) and sometimes even making it out the other side to wreak havoc on the West Australian coast. On occasion, too, they get a boost in the Gulf, and then come back across Cape York and down the Qld coast.

Is there anything out there that the weather gods have dished up to stop this sort of scenario from occurring?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Been knee deep in volcanoes otherwise I'd have commented on this earlier.

Cairns looks like getting a real hammering if that track verifies. Wish I could make it down there but just back from eruption in Japan and way too busy!

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 156.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 156.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.0S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0S 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.3S 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.3S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.7S 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS FUELING IMPRESSIVE DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ABRF AND PGTW RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS.
FURTHERMORE A CLOUD-FILLED RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE
AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, OF WHICH THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, AND TRACK CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:52pm EST on Tuesday the 1st of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cooktown to Sarina.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Lockhart River to Cooktown and
Sarina to Yeppoon and for the northern tropical interior.

At 1:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 3 was estimated to be
1120 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 1110 kilometres east northeast of
Townsville
moving west at 34 kilometres per hour.

YASI IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO
NORTH QUEENSLAND COMMUNITIES

The cyclone is expected to slowly intensify overnight as it moves westwards over
the Coral Sea.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI, CATEGORY 3 is expected to turn on a more
west-southwesterly direction in the next 12 hours.

DAMAGING winds with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on the islands
during Wednesday morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further
inland across southern Cape York Peninsula and north of Charters Towers
overnight.

Between Cooktown and Townsville these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts
in excess of 125km/hr late Wednesday afternoon.

As the centre approaches the coast sea levels will rise above the normal tide
with damaging waves and flooding of low lying areas near the shoreline.

Flooding rains will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during Wednesday afternoon
and then extend inland overnight.


People between Cooktown and Sarina should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property [using available daylight
hours/before nightfall].
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People between Lockhart River and Cooktown and between Sarina and Yeppoon, and
southern Cape York Peninsula and inland north of Charters Towers should consider
what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.2 degrees South 155.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 34 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Tuesday 01 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.