EPAC: ADRIAN - Tropical Depression

[HURAKAN]

very impressive in this microwave image

[CrazyC83]

Dvorak hinting at RI.. Raw T# is at 5.9.

If that trend continues, we may need a Special Advisory in the next 2 hours or so.

[Battlebrick]

6.0... holy crap.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt01E.html

Can someone tell me the differences between Final T#, Adj T#, and Raw T#? I kind of understand Raw T#.. but not the others and how they're calculated.

[CrazyC83]

6.0... holy crap.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt01E.html

Can someone tell me the differences between Final T#, Adj T#, and Raw T#? I kind of understand Raw T#.. but not the others and how they're calculated.

They are all different numbers that are calculated once certain constraints are added. Usually, in strengthening storms, the CI (real number) is the lowest, then they go higher up to the Raw T (the unconstrained current estimate, which can fluctuate rapidly). In weakening storms, the CI is usually higher than the others. In steady-state storms, they can be in any order or all the same.

The other numbers take time to catch up to the Raw number if the trends continue.

Based on all estimates, I would put Adrian at 80 kt right now.

[Swimdude]

Well, this one is worthy of my 1st post of the 2011 season!

If this was in the Atlantic, S2K would be a pretty crazy place right now. Very small eye has developed very quickly. Probably nearing or at cat-3 already, just by the solid look.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing around 11 there will be a Special Advisory. At this rate, it will be hard to say what the intensity will be then.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C
PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A JUST-RECEIVED TRMM
OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE UNDER THE
CDO...AND THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF THIS FEATURE IN INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 77
KT AT 0600 UTC...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS
EXCEPT TO THE NORTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/10...FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT FOR THE NEXT 72 HR ADRIAN WILL MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER
THAN AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS...GFDL...
AND HWRF RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ADRIAN TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE
TROUGH CAN TURN IT NORTHWARD. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS
MORE ON THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN CALLING FOR A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE HURRICANE...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. ASSUMING
THAT THE DRY AIR DOES NOT REACH THE INNER CORE...ADRIAN IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 24 TO 36 HR...WITH SLOW WEAKENING AFTER
THAT. IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO ENTER A LESS
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT 72 HR....WHICH IS
FORECAST TO CAUSE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.

THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 14.2N 103.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.7N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 15.2N 106.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 16.2N 108.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 18.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Frank2]

Wow - impressive:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/vis-l.jpg

uh-oh - definitely so far busier in both the Atlantic and Pacific than the past couple of years...

Frank

[Crackbone]

^^

Wow, that's a beauty. Ramped up fast.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible ... 90 knots in the latest ATCF

[Extratropical94]

1200Z best track

EP, 01, 2011060912, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1037W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 60, 60, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
EP, 01, 2011060912, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1037W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 40, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
EP, 01, 2011060912, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1037W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,

[Florida1118]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
He's definatly a player...

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.3mb/115.0kt

very impressive

[tolakram]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR
AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR
SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED
A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF
THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE
WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE
OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE
NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

If all that convection can wrap all the way around, I can see more strengthening.

[Extratropical94]

Useless fact, but it has become the strongest Adrian on record.

[HURAKAN]

ACE:

[Macrocane]

Very impressive! Two Junes in a row with major hurricanes in the EPAC, how common is that?

[euro6208]

1st major hurricane in the western hemisphere. thankfully this will stay out at sea.

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive! Two Junes in a row with major hurricanes in the EPAC, how common is that?

the last time this occurred was in 91-92, not common.

Check: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?sk=gro ... 28976&ap=1