WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

[Extratropical94]

I've seen several 35kt ship reports both north and south of the center today. Dvorak now at 2.5 to 3.0. Appears to be a TS. Wonder why JTWC Hasn't begun advisories? It's surely stronger than the system near China.

Plus they have removed the TCFA from their website. Maybe they wait until 2100Z to issue the 2100Z advisory, but that would be kind of unnormal

[RobWESTPACWX]

AND the NRL site is now saying it is Tropical Depression 7.....We now have it official!

JMA is the official naming agency in the West Pac. They called it a TD yesterday.

I think official is a bias term, for example if Pagasa names it a storm is it not official in the PI? The only reason I say it is because most U.S military does not recognize the storm until JTWC names it, I.E Okinawa where storming is. One of the main headaches of the western pacific I suppose. That is for a topic of discussion another time.

[StormingB81]

Sooo the yhave it missing Okinawa by 143 NM....alot of models I seen brings it close to here however there is a huge cone..should be interesting who has it right..lol

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210251Z JUN 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.0N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.5N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.3N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.4N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.9N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 33.6N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 129.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWEST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
ORGANIZING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDS
OF DEEP, BUT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG OUTFLOW CAN BE
SEEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TO THE EAST INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 211713Z AMSR-E
PASS SHOWS A SERIES OF FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE NORTH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION AT THE CENTER. A 211301Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED DEPRESSION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH A CLOSED 20-25KT CIRCULATION AND REGIONS OF 25-30KTS OF WIND TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-PACIFIC HIGH LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR 60 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. NEAR TAU 60, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
STARTS TO FALL OUT OF AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS RECURVING SHARPLY TO THE
EAST, ECMWF CONTINUING INTO TAIWAN, AND GFS, UKMET AND JGSM
FOLLOWING A TRACK SIMILAR TO THIS FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 210251Z JUN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210300) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z
AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 211819
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (NE OF MIDANAU)
B. 21/1732Z
C. 12.8N
D. 129.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS .20 WRAP, RESULTING
IN 1.0DT. MET AND PT BOTH CAME OUT TO 2.0. PT USED TO DETERMINE
FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

[senorpepr]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (NE OF MIDANAU)

NE of Midanau? They mean Mindanao?!

[supercane]

JTWC has been inattentive with the parenthetical locations in the satellite bulletins of late. For a while, they had then 06W (now Haima) listed as (NE OF LUZON) even though it had crossed the Luzon strait and was in the South China Sea. Perhaps it would be better if they just left it off completely so it does not need to be updated.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 13.0N 130.2E POOR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 16.4N 128.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



TXPQ25 KNES 212156
TCSWNP
A. 07W (NONAME)
B. 21/2032Z
C. 12.0N
D. 132.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI
H. REMARKS...1829Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION FROM NW
TO SE IN AN AREA RELATIVELY DEVOID OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. ANIMATED SWIR
AND EIR IMAGERY SUGGESTED A POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MUCH
FARTHER TO THE WEST NEAR 13.0N 128.5E. CONVECTION MEASURED 3/10 FOR A
DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 WHILE PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
21/1829Z 11.9N 132.3E TMI
...MYRGA

12Z selection of models:


System causing high surf in Palau:
000
WHPQ40 PGUM 211911
CFWPQ

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 AM CHST WED JUN 22 2011

.OVERVIEW...FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF
A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY CENTERED BETWEEN THE PHILIPPINES
AND KOROR. LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS OF KOROR
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

PMZ161-220700-
KOROR PALAU-
500 AM CHST WED JUN 22 2011

...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING
REEFS...

SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET TODAY ON WEST FACING REEFS WILL PEAK AT 9 TO 11
FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
HAZARDOUS HEIGHTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURF ON SOUTH FACING REEFS HAS
PEAKED AND WILL FALL FROM 7 TO 9 FEET TODAY TO BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS BY THIS EVENING AS SWELL COME MORE DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST.

AVOID VENTURING NEAR EXPOSED REEFS AND BEACHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG
SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES AS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

$$

AYDLETT

[Infdidoll]

This one will be called Meari, I believe. JTWC's numbers seem to keep it a weaker typhoon, which seems to go along with ECM whose predictions have been milder than HKO's. This DOES look like a wet storm with a lot of convection and precipitation like Morakot. We had some really good obs from Taiwan, last year, from some people who came on the forum here. Seemed to be worried about a dam there, if I remember correctly. Hope all those issues are sorted because looks like they're about to get some rain. We could use the precip here, too. Have seen hardly any rain and Songda was a very dry typhoon.

[ManilaTC]

H. REMARKS...1829Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION FROM NW
TO SE IN AN AREA RELATIVELY DEVOID OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. ANIMATED SWIR
AND EIR IMAGERY SUGGESTED A POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MUCH
FARTHER TO THE WEST NEAR 13.0N 128.5E. CONVECTION MEASURED 3/10 FOR A
DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 WHILE PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

A microwave pass will decide this. When is the next one?
If the midlevel becomes the dominant one, this will be closer to luzon than previously thought.

[Amoygal]

This one will be called Meari, I believe. JTWC's numbers seem to keep it a weaker typhoon, which seems to go along with ECM whose predictions have been milder than HKO's. This DOES look like a wet storm with a lot of convection and precipitation like Morakot. We had some really good obs from Taiwan, last year, from some people who came on the forum here. Seemed to be worried about a dam there, if I remember correctly. Hope all those issues are sorted because looks like they're about to get some rain. We could use the precip here, too. Have seen hardly any rain and Songda was a very dry typhoon.

I'm in Taiwan. The Shimen dam concerns are still valid, but it's been dryer than usual here lately, so it should be okay this go round. The biggest concern is always the mountainous areas and potential landslides. Keeping an eye on this one.

[supercane]

TPPN11 PGTW 220035
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (NE OF MINDANAO)
B. 21/2332Z
C. 13.5N
D. 128.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS .40 WRAP, RESULTING
IN 2.5DT. PT AGREES. MET COMES TO 2.0. DT USED TO DETERMINE FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

[supercane]

JMA still analyzing this as a TD at 00Z:
WTPQ21 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 13.2N 129.8E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 16.9N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[supercane]

JTWC upgrades to TS with big shift west in track toward Taiwan.
WTPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.1N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.8N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.6N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 28.9N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 34.1N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 128.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING REPRESENTS TWO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM, AND THE TRACK HAS
SHIFTED TO THE WEST, NOW MAKING LANDFALL IN TAIWAN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Moving away from Okinawa guess no worries here for the week of vacation!

[oaba09]

Moving away from Okinawa guess no worries here for the week of vacation!

moving closer to the Philippines w/c means that we'll have another rainy weekend(Guess, I'll be staying home on saturday)

[drdavisjr]

moving closer to the Philippines w/c means that we'll have another rainy weekend(Guess, I'll be staying home on saturday)

Any reliable rainfall forecasts yet, oaba09?

[oaba09]

moving closer to the Philippines w/c means that we'll have another rainy weekend(Guess, I'll be staying home on saturday)

Any reliable rainfall forecasts yet, oaba09?

All I have is this 72 hour(saturday) forecast from ECMWF w/c shows rain affecting southern and central luzon...PAGASA haven't changed their track yet(expecting them to do so later)

[drdavisjr]

All I have is this 72 hour(saturday) forecast from ECMWF w/c shows rain affecting southern and central luzon...PAGASA haven't changed their track yet(expecting them to do so later)

I just found this page...we might get nailed over the weekend.

http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/p/rai ... ecast.html

[oaba09]

All I have is this 72 hour(saturday) forecast from ECMWF w/c shows rain affecting southern and central luzon...PAGASA haven't changed their track yet(expecting them to do so later)

I just found this page...we might get nailed over the weekend.

http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/p/rai ... ecast.html

That's why I'm just gonna stay home this weekened...Don't wanna get stuck on the road during bad weather. Anything on the amount of rain that falcon will bring?

[supercane]

oaba09, the shading on that ECMWF graphic shows wind speeds at the 850-mb level, not rain, although they probably accompany each other.
822
WTPQ21 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 13.4N 129.4E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 16.9N 126.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

WTPQ30 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 13.2N 129.8E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 220000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=



WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION (800NM) WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
RELATIVELY CONVECTION SPARSE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED, BUT HAS YET TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LLCC. OUTFLOW IS VERY STRONG, AS EVIDENT IN
THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH A CROSS EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE EAST. A 212127Z
SSMIS PASS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED
AND DOES NOT HAVE THE SMOOTH APPEARANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
INFLOW PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE
PGTW DVORAK FIX.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW. ORGANIZATION OF A LARGE SYSTEM TAKES LONGER THAN THAT OF A
SMALLER SYSTEM, THE TUTT TO THE EAST IS STARTING TO FILL, AND AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE MIDLATITUDE REGIME WILL SUPPRESS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM ROUDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL TYPHOON INTENSITY
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN NEAR TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 07W WILL STEER ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STR AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN CHINA BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE YELLOW SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS PULLING THE SYSTEM OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. ECMWF IS THE
WESTERN OUTLIER PULLING THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF TAIWAN INTO SOUTHERN
CHINA. THE DISCREPANCY STEMS FROM AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP
OVER MONGOLIA AND MANCHURIA, CHINA. THE MODELS THAT HOLD THE PATTERN
LONGER AND MAINTAIN THE STR INTEGRITY (ECMWF) HAVE 07W TRACKING
FURTHER WEST, AND MODELS THAT ARE BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN SOONER
(NOGAPS) HAVE THE SYSTEM RECURVING FASTER. MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HAS THE TENDENCY TO MOVE BLOCKING PATTERNS OUT TOO FAST, SO THIS
FORECAST FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK NEAR UKMET, JGSM AND ECMWF.//
NNNN

Still has a broad circulation on ASCAT:


TXPQ25 KNES 220319
TCSWNP
A. 07W (NONAME)
B. 22/0232Z
C. 13.4N
D. 129.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING. MET IS 1.0 WITH PT OF 1.5.
FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK