ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro moves the vorticity into south Texas in 192 hours around South Padre Island.

[HurricaneBrain]

For those who have SSL Encryption on their browser:
Models shift north, maybe I shouldn't have been so bold with my Mexico prediction.

[Ivanhater]

Really ramping up this afternoon.

[KatDaddy]

I am little more interested with the models point to the GOM. 75-80MPH at 120 hours and entering the SE GOM.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro moves the vorticity into south Texas in 192 hours around South Padre Island.

That would be assuming no real development for 90L I would think. If it were to develop into a TS or even hurricane I'd think it would get pulled more northward putting the SE, Florida and/or gulf at risk. Or trends could continue and this will all just get buried in central America ala 2007 .

[Ptarmigan]

If 90L takes longer to develop, the chance of threat to Gulf of Mexico is greater. If 90L develops sooner, it may be a threat for the East Coast or be a fish storm.

[Ivanhater]

Another note, almost all the models are already wrong. The vorticity is much stronger than all the models even initialized with.

[BigB0882]

I am thinking this is looking better and better, slow and steady wins the race, for sure, and those SSTs are not hurting. I have no idea where this will go. Anywhere from Mexico to Florida is my guess this far out. I suppose if it developed quickly even the East coast could be in danger. I am thinking it will develop and I am thinking anywhere from Texas to Florida should keep a very close eye.

[HurricaneBrain]

This can go anywhere depending on how fast it organizes.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro moves the vorticity into south Texas in 192 hours around South Padre Island.

That would be assuming no real development for 90L I would think. If it were to develop into a TS or even hurricane I'd think it would get pulled more northward putting the SE, Florida and/or gulf at risk. Or trends could continue and this will all just get buried in central American ala 2007 .

I don't know about that. It looks like the 12z Euro shows it moving more northwesterly from south Florida to the Tampa area, and then a ridge builds in over the SE US sending it due west across the Gulf.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[PTrackerLA]

Hurakan do you have a loop of that? Patiently awaiting the floater on 90L!

Edit: Nevermind I found it here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: Hurakan do you have a loop of that? Patiently awaiting the floater on 90L!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... mtcbarvis2

[Ivanhater]

Looks a lot better than I thought it would today.

[South Texas Storms]

Do yall think the NHC TWO at 8pm will make this orange?

[Florida1118]

Do yall think the NHC TWO at 8pm will make this orange?

Im going to go with...No imo. Their probably gonna do another copy and paste tihng for 8. Now as for 2am or 8am tomorrow...Id say Orange by then.

[KWT]

12z Euro moves the vorticity into south Texas in 192 hours around South Padre Island.

Sounds like a good call to me, whilst I'm not sure of that short term motion to the WNW/NW as far north as say north of the islands, I feel the general idea of a system moving into the Gulf is a pretty good one.

it does look a little better, still too much in the way of popcorn convection however I think there is enough to warrant a code orange.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro moves the vorticity into south Texas in 192 hours around South Padre Island.

Sounds like a good call to me, whilst I'm not sure of that short term motion to the WNW/NW as far north as say north of the islands, I feel the general idea of a system moving into the Gulf is a pretty good one.

it does look a little better, still too much in the way of popcorn convection however I think there is enough to warrant a code orange.

Yeah KWT the Euro is forecasting a landfall of pretty much where Dolly made landfall back in 2008. I think this could be pretty similar to Dolly.

[TheBurn]

Getting it's act together nicely...