ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[knotimpaired]

:crazyeyes:

GFDL!

Remember what I said yesterday Luis. As always the models you posted this morning has one going straight over Vieques but every time it does it stays 250-300 miles away.

Keep your chin up

[Cyclenall]

It's funny how this will become Emily because it seems like most Emilys end up being pretty powerful and that name should have been retired ages ago. Maybe this is the year Emily will be "retired".

I think I will call this one as the Atlantic's first major hurricane for 2011 and hurricane. It's been quite a while since the Atlantic had a serious threat in early August (not since Hurricane Charley). If Emily forms before August 1, then that makes three named storms in July which is fairly active. On that, we would be nearly 3-4 weeks ahead of last year's hurricane season in number of named storms.

Looking at the first satellite image of 91L for the very first time I had a feeling about it. This was before even viewing it's exact location, NHC TWO, models, etc.

[Swimdude]

It's funny how this will become Emily because it seems like most Emilys end up being pretty powerful and that name should have been retired ages ago. Maybe this is the year Emily will be "retired".

I think I will call this one as the Atlantic's first major hurricane for 2011 and hurricane. It's been quite a while since the Atlantic had a serious threat in early August (not since Hurricane Charley). If Emily forms before August 1, then that makes three named storms in July which is fairly active. On that, we would be nearly 3-4 weeks ahead of last year's hurricane season in number of named storms.

Looking at the first satellite image of 91L for the very first time I had a feeling about it. This was before even viewing it's exact location, NHC TWO, models, etc.

Seriously, Emily of 2005 wasn't retired?! That was one heck of a system!


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... icanemovie

[ConvergenceZone]

The saving grace for the Lesser Antilles/VI/Puerto Rico/Bahamas/ Eastern Seaboard is that the trough deepens a bit. Not the case for our friends in Bermuda.But is early to say for sure if that occurs.

So Luis, I know it's too early to know for sure, but are you saying that there's a good chance this might miss the islands and then recurve, as opposed to heading straight through the Carib into the Gulf(which is what I thought originally, I guess I was way off).

[SouthDadeFish]

It's funny how this will become Emily because it seems like most Emilys end up being pretty powerful and that name should have been retired ages ago. Maybe this is the year Emily will be "retired".

I think I will call this one as the Atlantic's first major hurricane for 2011 and hurricane. It's been quite a while since the Atlantic had a serious threat in early August (not since Hurricane Charley). If Emily forms before August 1, then that makes three named storms in July which is fairly active. On that, we would be nearly 3-4 weeks ahead of last year's hurricane season in number of named storms.

Looking at the first satellite image of 91L for the very first time I had a feeling about it. This was before even viewing it's exact location, NHC TWO, models, etc.

Seriously, Emily of 2005 wasn't retired?! That was one heck of a system!


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... icanemovie

From what I've read, it's up to the country that receives impacts from the storm to put in a request for retirement to the World Meteorological Organization and Mexico is notorious for not requesting storms to be retired.

[KWT]

id be far from certain that the trough will be a saviour, i suspect odds are it will lift north but not fast enough...prob a MH as well

[theweatherwatch]

The saving grace for the Lesser Antilles/VI/Puerto Rico/Bahamas/ Eastern Seaboard is that the trough deepens a bit. Not the case for our friends in Bermuda.But is early to say for sure if that occurs.

So Luis, I know it's too early to know for sure, but are you saying that there's a good chance this might miss the islands and then recurve, as opposed to heading straight through the Carib into the Gulf(which is what I thought originally, I guess I was way off).

Models are showing the High Pressure moving East which opens a path For 91L/Emily to recurve. I personally believe based on Models that it will go through the Islands before recurving.

[cycloneye]

The saving grace for the Lesser Antilles/VI/Puerto Rico/Bahamas/ Eastern Seaboard is that the trough deepens a bit. Not the case for our friends in Bermuda.But is early to say for sure if that occurs.

So Luis, I know it's too early to know for sure, but are you saying that there's a good chance this might miss the islands and then recurve, as opposed to heading straight through the Carib into the Gulf(which is what I thought originally, I guess I was way off).

If you look from the first page of the models thread,you will see a slight change of the tropical models to the right,from the 06z run to the 12z run. The exception was GFDL on that 06z run that has a cat 3 on my door.Let's see if a trend develops towards more right tracks from them or not.

[ronjon]

The saving grace for the Lesser Antilles/VI/Puerto Rico/Bahamas/ Eastern Seaboard is that the trough deepens a bit. Not the case for our friends in Bermuda.But is early to say for sure if that occurs.

So Luis, I know it's too early to know for sure, but are you saying that there's a good chance this might miss the islands and then recurve, as opposed to heading straight through the Carib into the Gulf(which is what I thought originally, I guess I was way off).

I dunno - latest GFDL model shows a CAT 3 hurricane heading to southern PR. I think it's way too early to predict this future cyclones path 7 to 10 days out.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011072906-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ConvergenceZone]

The saving grace for the Lesser Antilles/VI/Puerto Rico/Bahamas/ Eastern Seaboard is that the trough deepens a bit. Not the case for our friends in Bermuda.But is early to say for sure if that occurs.

So Luis, I know it's too early to know for sure, but are you saying that there's a good chance this might miss the islands and then recurve, as opposed to heading straight through the Carib into the Gulf(which is what I thought originally, I guess I was way off).

Models are showing the High Pressure moving East which opens a path For 91L/Emily to recurve. I personally believe based on Models that it will go through the Islands before recurving.

Okay, I just looked at the map on the model thread and now I see what you are talking about. The high is shoved east which will force Emily to recurve, but after it goes through the northern islands.... Well, that is great news for the USA, but so sorry about the islands

[Bocadude85]

The saving grace for the Lesser Antilles/VI/Puerto Rico/Bahamas/ Eastern Seaboard is that the trough deepens a bit. Not the case for our friends in Bermuda.But is early to say for sure if that occurs.

Yes but the ridge may be building back in by the end of next week. It all depends on the location of the system and on just how much ridging builds back in. Here is part of todays discussion from NWS Melbourne.

TUE-FRI...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER FL AND THE ADJACENT
WRN ATLC WILL SPELL BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE...WITH POPS A TAD LOWER
ON WED-THU AS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT. FROM LATE WED ONWARD...ECM AND GFS
DIFFER W/R/T JUST HOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR COL WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER FL...WITH THE ECM OPTING FOR MORE RIDGING BUILDING WWD FROM THE
ATLC BY THU-FRI. GFS SOLN SHOWS H50 HEIGHTS ABOUT 20M LOWER...WHICH
IMPLIES LESS SUPPRESSION AND A LITTLE HIGHER POPS. OVERALL TREND OF
DECREASING POPS WAS FOLLOWED...50 AREAWIDE FOR TUE...30/40 WED/THU
AND 20/30 BY FRI.

EXTENT OF RIDGING LEFT OVER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS
FOR TRACK OF MID ATLC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ON DAYS 8-9 (NEXT WEEKEND)
AS THE SYSTEM (IN WHATEVER FORM IT TAKES) IS PROGGED TO APPROACH OR
REACH 75W BY THEN.

[SouthDadeFish]

The saving grace for the Lesser Antilles/VI/Puerto Rico/Bahamas/ Eastern Seaboard is that the trough deepens a bit. Not the case for our friends in Bermuda.But is early to say for sure if that occurs.

Yes but the ridge may be building back in by the end of next week. It all depends on the location of the system and on just how much ridging builds back in. Here is part of todays discussion from NWS Melbourne.

TUE-FRI...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER FL AND THE ADJACENT
WRN ATLC WILL SPELL BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE...WITH POPS A TAD LOWER
ON WED-THU AS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT. FROM LATE WED ONWARD...ECM AND GFS
DIFFER W/R/T JUST HOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR COL WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER FL...WITH THE ECM OPTING FOR MORE RIDGING BUILDING WWD FROM THE
ATLC BY THU-FRI. GFS SOLN SHOWS H50 HEIGHTS ABOUT 20M LOWER...WHICH
IMPLIES LESS SUPPRESSION AND A LITTLE HIGHER POPS. OVERALL TREND OF
DECREASING POPS WAS FOLLOWED...50 AREAWIDE FOR TUE...30/40 WED/THU
AND 20/30 BY FRI.

EXTENT OF RIDGING LEFT OVER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS
FOR TRACK OF MID ATLC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ON DAYS 8-9 (NEXT WEEKEND)
AS THE SYSTEM (IN WHATEVER FORM IT TAKES) IS PROGGED TO APPROACH OR
REACH 75W BY THEN.

Ummm.... 75W is kind of cutting it close....

[cycloneye]

Good discussion going on here.Keep it up. Is all about one word=Timing

[theweatherwatch]

Okay, I just looked at the map on the model thread and now I see what you are talking about. The high is shoved east which will force Emily to recurve, but after it goes through the northern islands.... Well, that is great news for the USA, but so sorry about the islands

yeah... As we all know nothing is set in stone with Tropical Weather until after they make landfall so things most likely will change but as of right now that is my take on what the models are showing.

[ronjon]

06z NOGAPS keeps it weak and crashes it into Hispanola and then across the spine of Cuba.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2011072906&set=Tropical

[gatorcane]

06z NOGAPS keeps it weak and crashes it into Hispanola and then across the spine of Cuba.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2011072906&set=Tropical

So we know it is not going there....

[ronjon]

06z GFS smacks PR.

[gatorcane]

Good discussion going on here.Keep it up. Is all about one word=Timing

As far as the U.S East coast is concerned...we are still 8-9 days out...and we all know the drill. The models are likely going to flip-flop several times over the next several days...on what they will do with ridging or troughiness along the Eastern Seaboard....

For the Northern Leewards and Puerto Rico....we will need to keep a watch as we are only about 4-5 days out or so.

[SouthDadeFish]

850mb vorticity is still spread out over a large area. Once the broad circulation consolidates and we get some more convection to fire and keep away the dry air this thing could really ramp up. 91L is in 28C waters and will be moving into 29C waters. Also currently has an anticyclone overhead making wind shear next to nil. Quite a different set-up than with Don...

[stauglocal]

I really hope it follows the northerly models. Probably for selfish reasons (big surf for florida)