ATL: IRENE - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

Into Tampa north to the Big bend

Just goes insane intensity wise to once back over the straights...

[Ivanhater]

Make this 14 runs in a row!

Updated GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27

[ROCK]

Directly up the western peninsula of FL through 228hrs. Still the same general track indicating a threat to the SE U.S.

our ridge backed out...I am happy... maybe a few sea breeze storms...sorry OT

[SouthDadeFish]

If 97L does hit FL, and that's a huge if, this will be a phenomenal win for the GFS. Surprisingly consistent for such a long range. Compare how much better the models are now then they were ten years ago. I hope this progress will continue ten years from now. That being said watch this become a fish storm and threaten Bermuda and we'll all bash the models again

[HurricaneWarning92]

Yeah, I remember Wilma stayed over the Yucatan for nearly 2 days, and made landfall as a cat 4. It weakened to a cat 2 before racing to South Florida. We all know the Yucatan, specially the tip of it is fairly flat... add 1000 ft + of mountains = this run is bs. (in terms of intensity). BUT Ivanhater is right... it still shows the consistency track wise.

[somethingfunny]

Into Tampa north to the Big bend

Just goes insane intensity wise to once back over the straights...

Yep, because the inner core will be in such great shape after all that land and mountain interaction that it'll just wind up like a yo-yo and bomb out in a day. ...... I ain't buying that.

Also, intensity has everything to do with the track, whether it follows lower level or upper level steering currents. Yesterday's 12z Euro shredded the storm apart over Hispaniola, and the low-level flow caught the remnants and sent them west below Cuba. The run ended with 97L re-consolidating a bit in the NW Caribbean....with a weakness in the ridge over Texas.

edit; here's yesterday's 12z euro at 240hr, I saved it before the hotlink died:

[Battlebrick]

the consistency of the GFS is frightening.

[KWT]

To be fair Ivanhater though, it does make a difference if the model is not getting a good grip on the weakening that would be likely, obviously a weaker (likely much weaker) system is going to not feel the tug as much and therefore go further west...and that could have huge implications down the line.

Upper high decaying quite alot by 180 over the central southern states and withdrawing westwards, would open up much of the gulf if it takes longer to get picked up.

If it tracks like the 12z GFS suggests, weak system, landfall, maybe weakening back to an open wave or staying as a weak TD/TS and stays weak till past Cuba...then possibly a period of much quicker strengthening into a hurricane as it heads towards W.Florida.

[wxman57]

Directly up the western peninsula of FL through 228hrs. Still the same general track indicating a threat to the SE U.S.

our ridge backed out...I am happy... maybe a few sea breeze storms...sorry OT

Or just some dry northerly winds and hotter temps...

[FireRat]

Oh man, right on the 27th.

If that pans out that could be a real disaster in the making.

[PTrackerLA]

Wouldn't a track only say 75 miles south of the 12z keep the storm over water almost entirely? Splitting hairs here and may not really know for days. Ok time for lunch then the almighty Euro .

[Nimbus]

Well for the last three days we have been watching model runs that bring this ashore somewhere along the southeast coast of the US. This time of year without some serious land interaction or shear issues this storm could be a nightmare. A track north of the islands and the east coast might be looking at a Hugo. South of the islands and crossing Cuba and we might get a Charley. I hate these Cape Verde storms.

[FireRat]

First we'll have to see that the storm does indeed form. I must admit I haven't seen this kind of model consistency in quite a while and the fact it takes the storm into land right on a date I'm watching for possible hurricane events, it kinda scares me. This 97L should be taken seriously, much more than the past invests IMHO.

[KWT]

No system this season has even come close to having this level of consistancy, thats what has most peoples attention.

The 12z ECM is gonna be real interesting to see what it does!

[AdamFirst]

No system this season has even come close to having this level of consistancy, thats what has most peoples attention.

The 12z ECM is gonna be real interesting to see what it does!

I must admit this is intriguing.

Though it seems conditions aloft tend to bust these forecasts...it happened with Emily.

[ROCK]

No system this season has even come close to having this level of consistancy, thats what has most peoples attention.

The 12z ECM is gonna be real interesting to see what it does!

man I cant wait....the EURO was bullish last night...sure the GFS is going to consistent if it doesnt account for all the mountain interaction and keeps the TC steered with the upper levels.....

[ROCK]

I expect we are fixing to see some significant swings coming up....JMO....

and they may not happen until it gets done island hopping...just sayin

[somethingfunny]

BAM doesn't initialize the track well, but its' diagnosis of upper level vs lower level steering flow tells the story here. If it misses Hispaniola, BAMD takes the strong hurricane WNW into Florida. (actually might recurve but I think there's only a 20% or so chance of that happening) If it hits Hispaniola (or Cuba) head on and gets torn up, the BAMS and BAMM take the shallow weaker system due west with the lower level flow, south of Cuba and into the NW Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian has a strengthening storm and keeps it South of Hispaniola and Cuba in the Caribbean

[caneseddy]

12z Canadian has a strengthening storm and keeps it South of Hispaniola and Cuba in the Caribbean

Second straight run by the Canadian keeping this in the Caribbean