ATL: PHILIPPE - Post - Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Euro has no left turn and GFS has not had a very good record this year so I suspect it will either dissipate or head NW then north as a weak TS. 12Z Euro will be interesting to see.

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[AJC3]

The northernmost models look like they may not verify as they assume a coherent TC. Looks for all the world like Philippe is in the process of completely decoupling (SURPRISE!? LOL). If this keeps up it may head a little north of west...though as a remnant low/mostly nekkid swirl.

[Hylian Auree]

Seems the GFS was right in keeping the system weak and trapping it to the south of the building subtropical ridge. NHC now follows that solution

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well it does look like hes gonna miss the next forecast point to the south... so IMO we might see a shift to the south and west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rgb.html

[Annie Oakley]

A storm is still pretty to look at....

[bg1]

Hrrrmmm looks like no Cane for him. Which still leaves us at 16/3/2, a percentage of 18.75% hurricanes. Compared to 2009 with 33%, 2010 with 63%...and so forth.

Don't forget 2006, 50%; 2007, 40%; and every season after 1914 .

Only 1982 had less hurricanes form since 1950.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011

WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS
DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION MORE THAN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE
CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE RATHER RELENTLESS OVER
PHILIPPE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 15 KT
BRIEFLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SSTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING OF PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM MODEL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WELL BELOW THE DYNAMICAL
HURRICANE MODELS WHICH CONTINUE TO INSIST ON STRENGTHENING THE
CYCLONE DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DURING THE PERIOD
IF THE CONVECTION BECOMES DISPLACED EVEN FARTHER FROM THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 285/6...
TAKING PHILIPPE A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A
BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AND FASTER FORWARD SPEED AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH OF PHILIPPE. THE GUIDANCE FOR
HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO THE LEFT AND IS ALSO FASTER FOR THIS
CYCLE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF
AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT...THE
NEW NHC TRACK STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE RELIABLE
MODELS AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IF PHILIPPE IS BECOMING A
SHALLOWER CYCLONE...A TRACK EVEN MORE TOWARD THE WEST THAN SHOWN
HERE IS POSSIBLE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 16.4N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 17.5N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 18.9N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 20.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 22.6N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 24.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 25.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[AdamFirst]

EURO and GFS looks like it rebuilds the ridge and sends Philippe, or the remnants of Phillipe, west in the long term. Something to watch if it survives?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PHILIPPE. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME QUITE LIMITED AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...PHILIPPE IS
CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM...BASED ON A RECENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN ABOUT 36 AND 60 HOURS. THE SHEAR ALONG
WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PHILIPPE BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND MUCH BELOW THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT
DEEPENS THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. THE UPDATED FORECAST ALSO NOW
SHOWS PHILIPPE BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 4-5
DAYS...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASE FURTHER. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES
NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY...THE
CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...A STRONG MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TURN PHILIPPE...OR ITS
REMNANTS...MORE TOWARD THE WEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.1N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 16.5N 38.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 17.7N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 19.1N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 20.6N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 22.8N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 24.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z 25.5N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011

DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WRAP AROUND
THE CIRCULATION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND ADT VALUES
FROM UW-CIMSS. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR IN
36-48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KT OR
HIGHER OVER PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A
SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE FSSE...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AND BRING PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE LATTER
SCENARIO APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WHEN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT TO THE SOUTH OF
A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BEYOND
THAT...PHILIPPE...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE LEFT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND BUT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.5N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 17.2N 39.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 18.4N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 19.8N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 21.2N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 23.2N 45.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

interesting scenario. if that high can build a little more east philippe may get trapped and head due west.

[KUEFC]

Can any pro mets help, if this does hang around is it definately still destined to recurve? i have a flight to orlando on the 8th so just wondering if this will definately stay out the way?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If HPC is correct, 6-7 days from now the southeast FL coast could be open for business by anything coming in from the caribbean/east before the next big front comes along to turn anything away from CONUS south of NC. High pressures will dominate the southern US with a 1016 pressure border going through Florida. If these ridges stay strong, anything that forms from Phillipe could head straight into Central America or western Gulf or even southernmost FL (heading westward). If they are a little weaker, then FL or SE US could be in for something, as Phillipe could travel west along a higher latitude line.
However, that is almost a week away and unlikely that Phillipe can make that window unless a big slowdown occurs while he misses the front. Actually, it is possible that steering currents become weak while we wait to see if the front catches him or not.
hmmm...
however, it will most likely be yet another fish for 2011.

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

looks like phil has a chance to get trapped and head west under that massive high

[wxman57]

Can any pro mets help, if this does hang around is it definitely still destined to recurve? i have a flight to orlando on the 8th so just wondering if this will definitely stay out the way?

I don't see anything that indicates a potential threat to Florida. Very deep trof along the East U.S. Coast for the next 10 days or so means nothing can come that way. The trof does start to break down a bit by the 6th, but still there really isn't anything to carry Philippe west to affect your flight. Don't worry.

[LarryWx]

Based on climo and regardless of the E US ridging projected by the model consensus, I see the chances of Philippe ever getting to the CONUS as almost nil based on climo since the late 1800's. Also, no model run has even come close to showing that happen. I'll call it a 1% chance. I won't say 0% out of respect for the weather's unpredictability.

Another thing: looking at the many 100's of TC tracks at the Unisys site, ZERO storms that moved NW (315 degrees) or at a higher heading between just two six hourly points E of 48W went on to hit the CONUS. Philippe has already done that E of 35 W.

Don't shoot/hug the messenger, folks. I know it is boring out there, but this will not be what ends the doldrums. A much better hope is for something to form in the W. Caribbean. That is a MUCH more reasonable possiblity than Philippe doing the virtually impossible.

[LarryWx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011092812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

looks like phil has a chance to get trapped and head west under that massive high

It may, but the chances of it making it all the way to the CONUS are nil..I'm calling it 1%.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011

PHILIPPE REMAINS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS EXPOSED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE STORM
APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOTION WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS...UNTIL A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
MOVES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RESTRENGTHEN.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD...IN LARGE
PART BECAUSE OF A MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. PHILIPPE IS STILL
STRONGLY SHEARED...AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
ABLE TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE SHIPS MODEL
INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
THEN INCREASE AFTER THAT. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE AFTER
THAT TIME. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 16.4N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 17.3N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 18.3N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 21.5N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 23.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 24.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1200Z 25.0N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

[AJC3]

If HPC is correct, 6-7 days from now the southeast FL coast could be open for business by anything coming in from the caribbean/east before the next big front comes along to turn anything away from CONUS south of NC. High pressures will dominate the southern US with a 1016 pressure border going through Florida. If these ridges stay strong, anything that forms from Phillipe could head straight into Central America or western Gulf or even southernmost FL (heading westward). If they are a little weaker, then FL or SE US could be in for something, as Phillipe could travel west along a higher latitude line.
However, that is almost a week away and unlikely that Phillipe can make that window unless a big slowdown occurs while he misses the front. Actually, it is possible that steering currents become weak while we wait to see if the front catches him or not.
hmmm...
however, it will most likely be yet another fish for 2011.

The problem is, you have to look at what's going on at 500MB and 250 MB out at that 5-7 day time frame as well.

While you have a strong surface ridge to the north, above 20N latitude the ridging at 500MB is weak (at best) to non-existent, and you have westerly upper level flow, which becomes quite strong at 250 MB, generally around 40-50kt. When you figure in mean low level easterlies of 15-20kt, your talking about 50-70kt of shear, which would decapitate anything coming in from the east.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011

THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
UNCHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN
PERIODICALLY EXPOSED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB.

PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...INDUCED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...WILL ALLOW PHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD...RESULTING
IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN MORE WESTWARD
MOTION AND AN INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION TOWARD
THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER PHILIPPE....WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY
DECREASE BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. GIVEN THIS...THE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW MAINTAINS PHILIPPE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM FOR 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY...AND PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 17.0N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 17.9N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 19.3N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 20.9N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.1N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 23.6N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1800Z 25.0N 56.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ZELINSKY