ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[lonelymike]

no it will weaken and even move west....give it another week...[/quote]
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS SE TX THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL
BE A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AS PWS REMAIN IN THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE. MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND TOWARD THE COAST
BEGINNING THURSDAY (PWS 1.7-1.9 INCHES). WILL HAVE 20 POPS
MENTIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD EACH DAY BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. EVEN THESE 20 POPS WILL PROBABLY BE GENEROUS ON
SOME OF THE DAYS. NHC IS MONITORING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT (INVEST 93L).
NHC/HPC ARE FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING IT WELL SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IN FACT IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER THE SUBSIDENCE AROUND
IT WILL LIKELY HELP STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EVEN
FURTHER. AS FAR AS THE UPPER RIDGE...THE MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING
IT SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH THE 12Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION

Houston Afternoon Discussion 4:40 P.M.

Looking like either scenario looking less likely for our area at this time.
Beneficial rains from a weak Tropical system, or, this ridge shifting WWD at time of this Discussion.



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like a said give it another week.... [/quote]


Rock you love your treated sewage water admit it

[SouthDadeFish]

8pm TWO sounds pretty copy and paste to me... With the vorticity we got going on down there I think this is worthy of code orange...

[Gustywind]

Nope Gustywind, just being observing lots!

Looking better tonight, may well get recon in tomorrow if this trend continues...I think there is a pretty good chance we make it 8/0/0....though obviously if it can pull up enough and escape CA and hit N.Belize or Yucatan then who knows.

I knew that , but you have a very nice level of observation glad to see that. One thing for sure the Lesser Antilles have been recently well shaked with Emily and now this huge twave in less than two weeks, that's enough for us after this rainy year who is not ended

[AHS2011]

Is invest 93l absorbing the energy to the east?

[ROCK]

convection waning but a hot tower right where I would put a center.....

[ROCK]

yeah it is always good to shower in treated sewage....

However I must point out the NAM has nailed this so far.....edit the 18Z keeps it weak....

BTW---the ridge aint going anywhere...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Invest 93L's pros:

* Low wind shear
* Moistening environment
* High Sea Surface Temperatures
* High Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
* Piling of air on top of 93L

Invest 93L's cons:

* Forward speed (Should slow down soon)
* Time??

[lonelymike]

convection waning but a hot tower right where I would put a center.....

A true believer to the bitter end

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 695W, 25, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

X01 KWBC 170035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC WED AUG 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110817 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110817  0000   110817  1200   110818  0000   110818  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.5N  69.5W   15.2N  72.6W   15.9N  75.6W   16.5N  78.6W
BAMD    14.5N  69.5W   15.2N  72.4W   15.8N  75.1W   16.2N  77.6W
BAMM    14.5N  69.5W   15.1N  72.3W   15.6N  74.9W   16.1N  77.5W
LBAR    14.5N  69.5W   15.4N  73.1W   16.3N  76.6W   17.2N  79.7W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110819  0000   110820  0000   110821  0000   110822  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.0N  81.1W   17.6N  85.4W   18.2N  89.9W   19.0N  94.6W
BAMD    16.6N  79.9W   17.1N  84.1W   17.3N  88.6W   17.1N  93.8W
BAMM    16.5N  79.9W   17.2N  84.1W   17.8N  88.7W   18.3N  93.8W
LBAR    18.2N  82.6W   20.2N  87.2W   22.1N  91.0W   23.3N  95.2W
SHIP        57KTS          79KTS          92KTS          96KTS
DSHP        57KTS          79KTS          72KTS          37KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.5N LONCUR =  69.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  13.8N LONM12 =  65.4W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  13.6N LONM24 =  61.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


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[Rgv20]

Its probably a long shot but some of the 12zEuro Ensembles still show a more northward (represented by the purple colors) track for 93L

Forecast valid for 96hrs (Saturday 12z)



Forecast valid for 168hrs (Tuesday 12z)

[underthwx]

Do yall feel the rapid forward speed of 93L is the main reason, among all the factors combined, it hasnt had a chance for further development so far? Thanks.

[Fyzn94]

Either this blob is getting its act together or my eyes are deceiving me.

[BigB0882]

BTW---the ridge aint going anywhere...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

You don't say...

[Jag95]

It does look like might be a little better organized as of late. That's not saying much though...still a long way to go.

[ozonepete]

Do yall feel the rapid forward speed of 93L is the main reason, among all the factors combined, it hasnt had a chance for further development so far? Thanks.

Generally speaking it is a pretty negative factor because it's hard for a low and mid-level center to spin up and close off at high forward speeds. But it is not always a negative factor. While I don't know offhand the speeds of faster moving waves that have developed, I know that some have developed at a pretty good clip. At any rate, this one is forecast to slow down as soon as tomorrow, and that should give it a better chance.

[underthwx]

Do yall feel the rapid forward speed of 93L is the main reason, among all the factors combined, it hasnt had a chance for further development so far? Thanks.

Generally speaking it is a pretty negative factor because it's hard for a low and mid-level center to spin up and close off at high forward speeds. But it is not always a negative factor. While I don't know offhand the speeds of faster moving waves that have developed, I know that some have developed at a pretty good clip. At any rate, this one is forecast to slow down as soon as tomorrow, and that should give it a better chance.

thanks for the reply, im treadin treated sewage water here....(dont live too far from Rock)

[ozonepete]

Sorry to hear that. But you know we're gettin' to the point where something, either a tropical system or a dip in the jet stream, will bring you guys relief. Hopefully it will come in stages instead of a Texas sized deluge.

[Gustywind]

Since 5PM things have return to normal. We can have a good breathe for now, thanks . Hope that the night will be calm but that's another story.

[underthwx]

:uarrow: Sorry to hear that. But you know we're gettin' to the point where something, either a tropical system or a dip in the jet stream, will bring you guys relief. Hopefully it will come in stages instead of a Texas sized deluge.

hope so to OP.........