ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

cyclone eye remember that wave I have been watching and saying that maria should follow a similar track except just farther south? well look where it is now... the 850mb vort never followed in katia's wake...

loop to show trend...
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 4java.html

[Aric Dunn]

Another thing Aric about the TS watch issued at 8 AM for Martinique/Guadeloupe is if NHC drops Maria into an open wave this afternoon,they see it comming back later and that is why the TS watch. What do you think about that?

I dont think it will open up. some convection appears to be coming back. the circ is well defined still just the fast motion has caused the overall system to elongate and the western side felt the ridging first and begin to race ahead of the circ yesterday... As long as some convection continues it should not open up.

[SuperLikeNintendo]

I wasn't too nervous about Maria until this morning. The fact that she's so disorganized and weak gives her the opportunity to keep moving West. If she decides to slow down a bit later, and reorganize herself, wouldn't it pose an actual threat to the CONUS?

I'm enjoying tracking this system, but not a fan of her continued march westward.

[chris_fit]

From NWS Melbourne....

FRI-SUN...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH LATE WEEK CONUS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. ANOMALOUSLY LARGE MID/UPPER LOW COVERING THE CTRL-ERN CONUS
DEFORMS AND OPENS UP INTO A SLOWLY WEAKENING POS TILT TROUGH. THIS
IN TURN ALLOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD FROM THE WRN ATLC
WWD ACROSS FLORIDA...BACKING THE LCL FLOW PATTERN FROM W-SW TO LIGHT
SOUTH ON SAT AND SE-ESE BY SUNDAY. SLIGHT DRYING TREND FROM FRI (50
POPS) INTO SAT (30-40) WILL REVERSE A LITTLE BY SUNDAY (40) ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA AS HIGHER PWAT AIR ASCD WITH WEAK T-WAVE BYPASSING
FL TO THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD NW. STORM STRENGTH WILL BE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY SEPT...MOSTLY PULSE-TYPE WITH LTG/HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.
TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

MON-WED...ECM MODEL HAS TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE GFS COMPARED TO
H24 AGO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGHER. THE BROAD POS TILT CTRL-ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL SLIDE ESE AS IT WEAKENS FURTHER...BUT WILL BE
PLENTY STRONG TO ERODE THE WRN PORTION OF BERMUDA RIDGE THAT WILL
HAVE BRIEFLY REBUILT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CATCH T.C. "MARIA" AND
TURN HER NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST...WELL EAST OF FL...BY NEXT WED.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLLAPSE OF THE WRN ATLC RIDGE...GRADIENT FLOW
WILL EITHER BECOME QUITE LIGHT OR BACK TO NE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
WEST MARIA GETS. ATTM FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD GFS SOLN...
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS. POPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO...NEAR
40 PCT EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AS WELL.

[cycloneye]

Big swift west.

[SuperLikeNintendo]

Again, these models are starting to get scary.

[gatorcane]

Again, these models are starting to get scary.

I am not too concerned here in Florida unless the ECMWF and GFS shift alot closer.

[meriland23]

Big swift west.

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/728/storm14.gif

That does not matter, still takes the curve at the same place, at the same distance. To me, and I am truly speaking out of my a** here, but it looks like no matter how west it goes, even within 5 miles of the ec, the curve will always make up for it so it does not hit land.

[SuperLikeNintendo]

Big swift west.

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/728/storm14.gif

That does not matter, still takes the curve at the same place, at the same distance. To me, and I am truly speaking out of my a** here, but it looks like no matter how west it goes, even within 5 miles of the ec, the curve will always make up for it so it does not hit land.

That doesn't make any sense to me, but that's probably because I have no clue what I'm talking about.

[Evil Jeremy]

Again, these models are starting to get scary.

I am not too concerned here in Florida unless the ECMWF and GFS shift alot closer.

No reason for concern yet, we are still 6-7 days away from any potential threat, and so much can change that far out. However, being that far out, it still makes me somewhat uneasy that the GFS just shifted big time towards FL, and the ECMWF has shown a couple runs lately close to FL as well. Still, 6-7 days out, so much can change.

[CourierPR]

If Maria gets into the eastern Caribbean, she could affect the CONUS, in my opinion.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Maria will be passing south of this buoy by about 60 to 70 miles over the next few hours. Its not quite in the convection yet but winds are picking up.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

[Evil Jeremy]

Big swift west.

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/728/storm14.gif

That does not matter, still takes the curve at the same place, at the same distance. To me, and I am truly speaking out of my a** here, but it looks like no matter how west it goes, even within 5 miles of the ec, the curve will always make up for it so it does not hit land.

Actually the turn takes place a good deal later. With my amature eyes, it looks like the latest consensus takes the turn around 75W, instead of about 70W on the previous model suite. It's a bit hard to tell on SFWMD though since it's so zoomed out.

[Blown Away]

Again, these models are starting to get scary.

I am not too concerned here in Florida unless the ECMWF and GFS shift alot closer.

The 06z GFS did make a big shift W and the ECMWF ran before the latest GFDL, HWRF, BAMS, and TVCN big shift W. I will wait until the 12z ECMWF before making a call. The GFS swing has me rattled, I was just beginning to believe it was the best!

[Evil Jeremy]

This is better for looking at the difference in model runs:

06z:


12z:


With these big model swings and current state of Maria herself, the new cone should be very interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

This is better for looking at the difference in model runs:

06z:
[img]http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2011/al142011/track_early/aal14_2011090806_track_early.png[/ig]

12z:
[img]http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2011/al142011/track_early/aal14_2011090812_track_early.png[/ig]

With these big model swings and current state of Maria herself, the new cone should be very interesting.

yes its actually a significant shift... yesterday's runs were all east of PR now they are all either over it or west of PR ...thats a good deal west.

[SuperLikeNintendo]

^^ Great Post! And many thanks for the visuals. What a difference! Looking forward to seeing the new cone!

[chrisjslucia]

Big swift west.

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/728/storm14.gif

That does not matter, still takes the curve at the same place, at the same distance. To me, and I am truly speaking out of my a** here, but it looks like no matter how west it goes, even within 5 miles of the ec, the curve will always make up for it so it does not hit land.

Depends on how you define Land. Those small dots on the map between South and North America are usually regarded as land down here in the Eastern Caribbean. They even have people there too...

[SFLcane]

TPC did mention that we maybe tracking an open wave very soon.

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... uble-1.asp

Maria and Nate Bring More Trouble in the Atlantic

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Sep 8, 2011; 10:00 AM ET

Wednesday marked the birth of two tropical storms in the Atlantic, Maria and Nate, both of which could pose a greater danger to land than Hurricane Katia.

Tropical Storm Maria is on a path that will take it much farther south in the tropical Atlantic compared to Katia, but should follow suite with Katia and curve away from the United States.

Those along the East Coast should also monitor Maria since its track bypassing the United States is not set in stone.

At the very least, AccuWeather.com Hurricane Coordinator Dan Kottlowski states, "Maria might track closer to the United States [than Katia]."

Maria will cause trouble in the Antilles and needs to be watched for impacts on Bermuda in the upcoming days.

Maria formed farther south than Katia and is in a steering flow that will take the tropical storm near the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin islands, Puerto Rico and even Hispaniola this weekend.

According to Kottlowski, "Maria is experiencing [disruptive wind] shear and pockets of dry air. So we are not expecting much in the way of intensification."

At this point, while it appears the main threat to the northern part of the Lesser Antilles is from torrential downpours and flash flooding spreading from west to east this weekend, wind and rough seas would also become problems if Maria strengthens significantly.

Beyond this weekend, odds favor Maria staying on the northern side of the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba) with an eventual northward turn either over the open waters of the western Atlantic or perhaps very close to Bermuda.