ATL: IRENE - Models

[gatorcane]

The amazing thing, to me, is how consistent the models have been run after run and model to model. Almost no real change in the forecast pattern by next Saturday, and a significant cyclone someplace in the gulf or Florida.

MW

Yeah and if the GFS initializes further north where the ECMWF initializes, it may be nearly the exact same track which would take it through peninsula FL with a Donna-like track

[HurricaneWarning92]

INteresting.. the 18z GFS shifted a bit to the right... lets see if it goes back west or east.

[weatherguy2]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


My current track forecast thoughts using the best of the consensus models (red area looks like the highest threat to me):
Click for large size:


It also lines up well with many historical tracks I posted earlier here:
viewtopic.php?p=2163164#p2163164

[maxintensity]

Catastrophic consequences if it crosses either of these areas

[KWT]

Yeah and if the GFS initializes further north where the ECMWF initializes, it may be nearly the exact same track which would take it through peninsula FL with a Donna-like track

Yep broadly the same pattern but abit further south to start with and therefore gets a bit further west.

Pattern still suggesting a SE US strike, just gotta hope it takes the longest track overland possible, though obv iously thats not going to be good for the islands in terms of rainfall.

[perk]

Eastern GOM ... you guys can have it, and we'll keep the heat and drought.

Ditto what I just saw on the latest GFS, I'll take the drought for a while longer.

[Wx_Warrior]

Ivan...Great job on posting the trends of previous runs.

[ROCK]

Ivan...Great job on posting the trends of previous runs.

suck up....

[robbielyn]

Wow im north of tampa by an hour hernando county. i hope this scenario doesn't pan out wouldnt be good for surge here. maybe eye wont be large and winds will only be ts if eye far enough west of us. but still surge nt good and tornados either.

[KWT]

INteresting.. the 18z GFS shifted a bit to the right... lets see if it goes back west or east.

Worth noting the models are slightly trending back towards a stronger weakness which would open up the chance of an Emily type track, or maybe a track a little west of there which would put the SE US at risk for sure with the Bahamas as well...

[ALhurricane]

The modeling from today has definitely trended toward the trough over the OH/TN lifting out faster late next week with heights rising to the north and east of the system. That is why the latest runs of the guidance has shown a N or even NNW motion...instead of a recurving NE motion as it moves north of western Cuba. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles definitely support a central-eastern Gulf solution. However, uncertainty will continue to be high until a center becomes defined. I do think the trend of stronger ridging is a strong likelihood, especially with the ensembles supporting a turn to a +NAO. Interesting times ahead....

[Dean4Storms]

Not liking the model trends so far as I'm just east of Destin smack in the middle of the Panhandle. We don't need this at all! Gonna fire the generator up, stock up on some supplies over the weekend.

[Wx_Warrior]

@ ROCK...HAHA

I want people to see just how nuts the GFS is most of the time.

[KWT]

Won't be that long till the enxt wave of models start coming out, it sorta feels like a never ending cycle with these systems sometimes...

[robbielyn]

Wow twc said all the models have been unusually consistent for the past 4 days. waiting to see on monday how far south that ridge will go will determine how north it goes. central gulf sounds like the target for now.

[KWT]

The models haven't really shifted all that much bar the odd outlier here and there, generally they have nearly always been aiming at firstly Hispaniola, then E.Cuba and then into the SE states at some point.

[gatorcane]

Good consistency through 4 days, then the spread begins, but models generaly converging over an area between FL Panhandle, EGOM, FL peninsula, and the Bahamas.

Look at those NNE hooks from the GFS ensembles...something to watch if I lived along the West Coast of FL or through the big bend of Florida.

[Ivanhater]

The modeling from today has definitely trended toward the trough over the OH/TN lifting out faster late next week with heights rising to the north and east of the system. That is why the latest runs of the guidance has shown a N or even NNW motion...instead of a recurving NE motion as it moves north of western Cuba. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles definitely support a central-eastern Gulf solution. However, uncertainty will continue to be high until a center becomes defined. I do think the trend of stronger ridging is a strong likelihood, especially with the ensembles supporting a turn to a +NAO. Interesting times ahead....

Great point..both GFS and Euro ensembles have been consistent on a central gulf solution while the operationals have been shifting around a bit.

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z NOGAPS goes up the entire spine of Florida:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

[Ptarmigan]

GFS shows a hurricane in 7 days. Seems to be consistent with it at 1800Z. Anything can change from now to next week.