ATL: IRENE - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z GFDL, third run in a row that shows a wave passing through the Caribbean towards the Yucatan:

Hmmm, I can't see why it is not developing this:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

not feeling good about this at all. as much as it bombs off the coast, it mind as well be a direct hit by a Cat 2 for us along the coastline.
we were looking to buy a house this month. casually looking. we may be forced to after this, along with another 600,000 people.
It takes 63 hours to evacuate pinellas county in the event of a big storm. A warning is issued 36 hours before hurricane conditions are expected. A watch is at 48 hours, though too many don't think we'll ever get hit. Do the math. It wouldn't be pretty were a big hit to pan out from this.

[gatorcane]

It looks like the 18Z HWRF has shifted more west on this run, should be out shortly.

[robbielyn]

i dont think theres a early season trough as deep as when charley hit the area that is the only reason tampa was the target usually these storms push straight up the eastern gulf to the panhandle westward or hits sw fl naples area but north of that to appalach its real hard to get a direct hit in this area. hopefully it will cont. like that. so most likely unless it runs up the spine of fl, if it does get in the eastern gulf it will probably be far enough off shore. maybe be surge and ts winds depending how large the storm is. looks like eastern cuba or hispaniola could get a hold of it and disrupt it quite a bit but hey never know good to be prepared just in case.

[ROCK]

It looks like the 18Z HWRF has shifted more west on this run, should be out shortly.

it did shift some....split DR and Cuba then wnw track to the Northern coast of Cuba

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF...through Haiti, scrapes Eastern Cuba..and rides WNW along the NE Coast of Cuba headed for the FL Straits as a 94mph hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

HWRF takes it on quite a good track to keep it weaker for the US but horrid for Haiti...

That track is the difference between a cat 1-2 US threat and a 3-4 threat IMO of course!

Taken as it is though the HWRF still has a powerful system when it emerges from Cuba with a good set-up aloft, so strengthening very likely even if it does take the shortest possible route over water.

[ROCK]

now that we have some constistency....looking for the EURO tonight to throw some kinks in the GFS runs today...

BTW- the CMC suspects developement in the Carib and ends at the channel....could miss the weakness all together and be steered by the building high to the east.....just sayin...

[robbielyn]

It looks like the 18Z HWRF has shifted more west on this run, should be out shortly.

it did shift some....split DR and Cuba then wnw track to the Northern coast of Cuba

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

That would pass over very mountainous area times two hispaniola and eastern cuba that would bode well for us not them though.

[ROCK]

18Z HWRF...through Haiti, scrapes Eastern Cuba..and rides WNW along the NE Coast of Cuba headed for the FL Straits as a 94mph hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

I would rather follow the NAM than the HWRF..... It has been jacked for some time. Always the right outlier and it goes nuts with intensity....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The modeling from today has definitely trended toward the trough over the OH/TN lifting out faster late next week with heights rising to the north and east of the system. That is why the latest runs of the guidance has shown a N or even NNW motion...instead of a recurving NE motion as it moves north of western Cuba. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles definitely support a central-eastern Gulf solution. However, uncertainty will continue to be high until a center becomes defined. I do think the trend of stronger ridging is a strong likelihood, especially with the ensembles supporting a turn to a +NAO. Interesting times ahead....

Great point..both GFS and Euro ensembles have been consistent on a central gulf solution while the operationals have been shifting around a bit.

I agree 100% also. Have been playing catch up reading all the models for today. This has the looks of becoming a major gulf problem. Think the ensembles have the right idea of showing the north central gulf at highest risk right now. Think over the next few days models will probably shift more westward as they realize the trough will not dig as deep or be nearly as strong as showing right now, of course that means the ridging will be somewhat stronger. How many times over the years have they shown some monster trough dropping down and sweeping all storms out to sea. And this IS NOT going to be a Charley type front. As Ivanhater has said a few times earlier the trough will not pull this potential system north/northeast but it will be the small weakness it leaves behind that will turn it gradually on a NW motion while the ridge rebuilds in north of it. This is of course if it develops as shown into a strong hurricane. Only two other options is it never develops ala Harvey and moves due west or by some miraculous way a record breaking cold front drops down the east coast and cleans the basin out. And we know what the chances of that happening.
For me doesnt look to promising either way right now. For one living in SE LA and two we are leaving next friday for a weeks vacation in Cape San Blas FL. Go figure all summer the gulf has been clear and now my first vacation of the year is here and a a potential major hurricane could show up in the gulf and move into the north coast, go figure

[KWT]

That would pass over very mountainous area times two hispaniola and eastern cuba that would bode well for us not them though.

Probably reduces the threat of a major, but then again don't need to be a major to cause *major* damage either as we all know.

00z models will be most interesting to watch.

[gatorcane]

Right now, looking at the model plot on the previous page, they are all initialized at least 1-2 degrees south of where the LLC may be trying to develop.

Will be interesting to see what the models do if they initialize more north. For the first 4 days or so, I would expect a slight nudge right of the TVCN consensus...then beyond that I am wondering still. Even a slight nudge could mean less time of Hispaniola and several of those models would take it north of Hispaniola or just along the northern coast of Hispaniola.

If the system gets very strong tapping into 500MB flow or higher I think it may be able to feel the weakness over Eastern North America that is expected to form towards the end of next week. Could mean the different between a SE Coast of US threat or a Central GOM threat and everywhere inbetween.

[MWatkins]

The modeling from today has definitely trended toward the trough over the OH/TN lifting out faster late next week with heights rising to the north and east of the system. That is why the latest runs of the guidance has shown a N or even NNW motion...instead of a recurving NE motion as it moves north of western Cuba. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles definitely support a central-eastern Gulf solution. However, uncertainty will continue to be high until a center becomes defined. I do think the trend of stronger ridging is a strong likelihood, especially with the ensembles supporting a turn to a +NAO. Interesting times ahead....

Great analysis, as usual Jason and yes, going to be a long week for a lot of folks.

Perhaps you'll be heading to the coast next week?

One concern with this setup, this could take more of a westward track through the Caribbean, then possibly make a sharp right further west over less hilly land.

MW

[gatorcane]

18Z DGEX model moves it NNW just offshore the west coast of Florida (maybe 50 miles or so west of the Tampa Bay area), landfall in the Central Panhandle, 180+ hours though

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

What is the DGEX model?

"These are plots of the 84-192 h forecasts from the Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) and the operational GFS"

[KWT]

If the system gets very strong tapping into 500MB flow or higher I think it may be able to feel the weakness over Eastern North America that is expected to form towards the end of next week. Could mean the different between a SE Coast of US threat or a Central GOM threat and everywhere inbetween.

Thats certainly a possible solution with this system, the weakness however isn't all that zonal like some previous ones have been (especially with Emily and Bret) and so its quite possible that rather then recurve it it just allows for a NNW/N motion to kick in which would be of no real help to the SE states.

[Blown Away]

18Z DGEX model moves it NNW just offshore the west coast of Florida (maybe 50 miles or so west of the Tampa Bay area), landfall in the Central Panhandle, 180+ hours though

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

What is the DGEX model?

"These are plots of the 84-192 h forecasts from the Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) and the operational GFS"

Which parameter did you click on?

[gatorcane]

18Z DGEX model moves it NNW just offshore the west coast of Florida (maybe 50 miles or so west of the Tampa Bay area), landfall in the Central Panhandle, 180+ hours though

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

What is the DGEX model?

"These are plots of the 84-192 h forecasts from the Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) and the operational GFS"

Which parameter did you click on?

Click "Sea Level Pressure" at top-left then DGEX top-left.

[ALhurricane]

The modeling from today has definitely trended toward the trough over the OH/TN lifting out faster late next week with heights rising to the north and east of the system. That is why the latest runs of the guidance has shown a N or even NNW motion...instead of a recurving NE motion as it moves north of western Cuba. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles definitely support a central-eastern Gulf solution. However, uncertainty will continue to be high until a center becomes defined. I do think the trend of stronger ridging is a strong likelihood, especially with the ensembles supporting a turn to a +NAO. Interesting times ahead....

Great analysis, as usual Jason and yes, going to be a long week for a lot of folks.

Perhaps you'll be heading to the coast next week?

One concern with this setup, this could take more of a westward track through the Caribbean, then possibly make a sharp right further west over less hilly land.

MW

I actually live in Daphne, but fortunately elevated high enough up from Mobile Bay. If you ever have to head down this way to track a storm, you've got a local resource to tap!

I am definitely concerned with this taking a track south of the Greater Antilles with the exception of western Cuba. With the heat ridge persisting in the southern plains and the NAO trying to turn positive, the natural weakness will be over the northern Gulf late next week into the weekend. We will just have to see where the center consolidates.

[Blown Away]

Lots of activity around the Florida Peninsula.