ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[shaggy]

Now we have to see what if any changes come to the models now that we have what is apparently a much stronger system this early. Will the models shift more east now or stay with the same solutions they have been having. If the center jumps or relocates to the deeper convection to its north that would change things also. Now is when we should start to see what may happen with a little better data to go on.

[SouthDadeFish]

The S-N pass should find pure west winds if the circulation is indeed closed.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we'll see one more pass from recon. This one from S to N.

yeah NHC was probably ... Are you sureeeeee... do another quick pass. lol notice the tiny alpha pattern they did..

[wxman57]

They're probably typing up the advisory now. Look for a track nearly identical to the consensus model. Just keep in mind that the track below is longer than 5 days. The final point is 1PM CDT on the 26th. The 5 day point is the second one from the end, just west of Andros Island. Now it could go farther west, passing west of Florida into the eastern Gulf as per the UK and CMC, so I'm not saying it's hitting Miami just yet. This is just the consensus model that NHC may follow closely. Or they may indicate a slower movement after day 3 and not commit to a SE FL landfall.

[Sanibel]

Same bow arc outflow boundary to the west as Harvey. Could slow strengthening.

[KWT]

Vortex message is pretty much a done deal then...

Looks pretty close to where the NHC estimated earlier, so thats good to see.

Should see Irene very shortly!

[madinina]

Last weather report in Martinique:
Yellow alert. But maybe orange alert in the end of the night.
It's a tropical wave, maybe TS or TD when she 'll arrive in caraibean sea.
Just rain, and possibly wind 80km/H.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 202133
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 29 20110820
212330 1405N 05747W 9593 00424 0070 +234 +092 159011 011 012 000 00
212400 1407N 05747W 9594 00423 0071 +234 +092 166010 010 014 000 00
212430 1409N 05747W 9596 00423 0071 +230 +091 166012 012 011 001 00
212500 1411N 05747W 9594 00424 0071 +232 +092 170012 012 014 000 00
212530 1413N 05747W 9593 00424 0071 +230 +093 167012 013 013 000 00
212600 1415N 05747W 9593 00423 0071 +230 +093 164014 014 015 000 00
212630 1417N 05747W 9593 00424 0071 +228 +093 167013 013 013 001 00
212700 1419N 05747W 9592 00425 0071 +221 +093 157011 012 010 002 00
212730 1421N 05747W 9594 00422 0071 +220 +092 162012 012 014 000 00
212800 1423N 05747W 9594 00421 0070 +221 +091 162011 012 013 001 03
212830 1424N 05748W 9596 00418 0069 +220 +090 152007 009 012 001 03
212900 1424N 05750W 9589 00425 0070 +222 +091 141005 005 013 002 03
212930 1423N 05752W 9597 00418 0069 +225 +091 134003 004 015 000 00
213000 1422N 05754W 9598 00416 0069 +225 +092 136001 001 016 001 03
213030 1421N 05755W 9600 00415 0069 +225 +092 022002 002 015 000 00
213100 1420N 05757W 9599 00417 0068 +230 +092 347001 002 014 001 03
213130 1419N 05759W 9593 00422 0068 +228 +092 097002 004 /// /// 03
213200 1420N 05800W 9602 00413 0068 +226 +092 117005 005 011 001 03
213230 1422N 05800W 9584 00430 0068 +225 +092 128006 006 014 000 00
213300 1424N 05800W 9604 00410 0068 +224 +092 137008 010 013 000 03
$$
;

[Ivanhater]

Thanks you Wwxman for explaining how it could go further west ala CMC and UKMET.....Some on here seem to think the track is pretty much "hammered" out.

[KWT]

wxman57, wouldn't take much of a shift west to take the 'ideal' path for least development over the huge mountions of Haiti, but the track there is a splitting image of the ECM's out to say 108hrs or so, which really raises the confidence of it.

Looks reasonable enough in terms of track, maybe a smidge west of there.

Given the models, will also be a far sharper bend to the north/NNW rather then the continued NW motion shown at 6-7 days.

[gatorcane]

Yeah Wxman, they love the TVCN, which shows a SE Florida strike.....

I expected they would follow that, but I agree, I wouldn't be surprised if they slow it down to near Eastern Cuba area to not cause media panic here...

By the way, I expect them to show tropical storm intensity throughout the run, maybe hurricane for the last point if they show the FL Straits with words like "the intensity forecast is highly uncertain"

[WeatherEmperor]

Thanks you Wwxman for explaining how it could go further west ala CMC and UKMET.....Some on here seem to think the track is pretty much "hammered" out.

I agree Michael. There is so much more time left and for all we know tonight's GFS and EURO could shift more west to get in line with the CMC and UKmet.

[maxintensity]

NHC will have to be very careful with the intensity at day 5. Down play it too much, and they could be blamed for not alerting the public enough (i.e. expecting a cat 1-2 and get a cat 4-5). They also dont want to cause panic especially since the track may change and they might panic the wrong people. There will be a lot of politics behind the intensity forecast no doubt.

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

would not be surprised to see the center migrate farther north towards the convection as time goes by tonight. very common to see that happen in systems like this.

[SouthDadeFish]

would not be surprised to see the center migrate farther north towards the convection as time goes by tonight. very common to see that happen in systems like this.

If it is not happening already.

[cpdaman]

wonder how "solid" that center fix location was

either way we should know in about 10 min's 20 tops.

[brunota2003]

I think even recon is confused as to where exactly the center is...they back tracked a bit on that last set.

[SouthDadeFish]

Still no west winds yet from the second fix. It is still pretty broad for now.

[wzrgirl1]

would not be surprised to see the center migrate farther north towards the convection as time goes by tonight. very common to see that happen in systems like this.

If it is not happening already.

What would that mean for track implications? Would it shift more east? Also, the fact that she is organizing rather quickly would that make her feel the weakness a little more?