ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Still not very organized at the moment...we will see if convection dies off a bit tonight.

[Lifesgud2]

gatorcane...Nice to see you again here. Reason for your thoughts on tropical storm throughout run, is because land interaction??

[SouthDadeFish]

would not be surprised to see the center migrate farther north towards the convection as time goes by tonight. very common to see that happen in systems like this.

If it is not happening already.

What would that mean for track implications? Would it shift more east? Also, the fact that she is organizing rather quickly would that make her feel the weakness a little more?

Possibly. I believe the models have a decent handle on it for now. The center is still pretty broad and until it tightens up more, I don't think we'll see much of a North or East shift.

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL:

20110820.2115.97LINVEST.45kts-1005mb-146N-572W

[KWT]

would not be surprised to see the center migrate farther north towards the convection as time goes by tonight. very common to see that happen in systems like this.

Yeah I'd expect that to happen as well.

if it were to happens thats VERY bad news for the East coast, especially given the synoptics aloft favour a due north motion and that would allow it more time over condusive waters and less overland.

PS, Its not well defined but we did get a vortex from it, and that tends to be enough for the NHC to upgrade...its not well organised yet I agree, kinda like Emily was at this stage.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the media onslaught is a coming folks when the news of Irene getting designated a TS comes out shortly.

[gatorcane]

would not be surprised to see the center migrate farther north towards the convection as time goes by tonight. very common to see that happen in systems like this.

Yeah I'd expect that to happen as well.

if it were to happens thats VERY bad news for the East coast, especially given the synoptics aloft favour a due north motion and that would allow it more time over condusive waters and less overland.

Yeah I agree, I just don't think the center will stay below 15N, somewhere between 15 and 16N under the big blob of convection.....I think it will jump around some the next 12 hours or so as it deepens, but jump northwards as the TUTT low off to the NW induces some light southerly shear to build the convection northwards. The system definitely seems to be gaining lattitude if you ask me.

[NDG]

I'm not putting too much stock on the UKMET, I remember very clearly how west bias it was with Emily, it forecasted too much ridging to build in after the trough started lifting.

[brunota2003]

We can't say it is Irene quite yet...we haven't even seen the renumber order come down yet...let alone an advisory.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 202143
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 30 20110820
213330 1426N 05800W 9594 00420 0068 +225 +092 142009 010 014 001 00
213400 1428N 05800W 9596 00419 0068 +226 +092 143008 009 013 000 00
213430 1430N 05800W 9599 00415 0068 +225 +091 126008 009 014 000 00
213500 1432N 05759W 9597 00417 0068 +221 +091 122007 008 016 000 00
213530 1434N 05759W 9608 00407 0067 +226 +091 086005 006 017 000 00
213600 1436N 05759W 9594 00417 0064 +229 +090 107004 006 016 000 00
213630 1438N 05759W 9596 00415 0065 +226 +088 068007 009 016 000 00
213700 1439N 05759W 9597 00414 0064 +221 +087 058008 008 016 001 00
213730 1441N 05759W 9596 00415 0064 +222 +085 047009 010 018 000 00
213800 1443N 05759W 9598 00412 0064 +221 +084 058011 012 017 001 00
213830 1444N 05759W 9594 00417 0064 +222 +083 069014 015 020 000 00
213900 1446N 05759W 9594 00416 0065 +220 +083 075016 016 019 000 00
213930 1448N 05759W 9594 00416 0065 +222 +084 072016 017 017 001 00
214000 1449N 05759W 9592 00418 0064 +223 +085 074017 017 020 001 00
214030 1451N 05759W 9602 00409 0066 +209 +085 062017 020 022 003 00
214100 1453N 05759W 9593 00417 0066 +209 +084 057017 017 024 001 00
214130 1454N 05759W 9599 00411 0067 +204 +081 062018 020 024 002 00
214200 1456N 05758W 9592 00418 0067 +210 +079 059017 018 025 001 00
214230 1458N 05758W 9596 00416 0067 +210 +077 061019 020 028 000 00
214300 1459N 05758W 9596 00414 0068 +206 +077 068017 018 026 001 00
$$
;

[bella_may]

Does this thing look like it could get into the central GOM?

[CrazyC83]

I don't think they will call it yet.

[tolakram]

[SouthDadeFish]

I don't think they will call it yet.

May not. On the second pass through recon didn't find any west winds.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty sure the broad nature and light winds to the south are mostly due to the forward motion making difficult measure a closed circ. but seems to be enough data.

[chrisjslucia]

Martinique : Rain but no winds. The weather report is late so we are always in yellow alert.
Chris: Do you have some news in sainte lucia?

Madinina, I've just checked again and no weather report at the local Saint Lucia met office site since yesterday at 6 pm. The three day forecast is for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday....
But given the location being highlighted here of the centre of the system and the wind speeds from the recon, I think we are both due to get some strong winds and plenty of rain tonight as there doesn't seem much movement to the north. Maybe Gusty has some more up to date information?

[brunota2003]

Nothing...no West winds on this pass. Not even light winds.

[Portastorm]

Does this thing look like it could get into the central GOM?

Some of the computer ensemble members say yes ... but the bulk of the current modeling suggests the Florida peninsula/Eastern Gulf.

[KWT]

Hmm last few recon passes don't look all that impressive wind shift wise, maybe recon just hit an eddy last pass through or something?

[Migle]

Does this thing look like it could get into the central GOM?

At the moment, no. Looks more like a SEUS/Eastern Gulf threat.