PTrackerLA wrote:Tropical storm watches at 10pm?
Tropical storm warnings likely with the first advisory i would think
ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re:
Tropical storm warnings likely with the first advisory i would think
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maxintensity
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... HHMM.shtml
000
WTNT23 KNHC 012340
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
0000 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W AT 02/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W AT 02/0000Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 92.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.2N 92.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.7N 92.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.1N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.1N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 91.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
000
WTNT23 KNHC 012340
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
0000 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W AT 02/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W AT 02/0000Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 92.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.2N 92.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.7N 92.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.1N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.1N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 91.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Ships shows pretty slow but steady strengthening. Kind of thought it would intensify quicker once a llc formed and the shear relaxed.
look at the shear forecast 15 to 9knts...it aint going to relax that much, if the SHIPS is right...
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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ATL: LEE - Remnants - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
0000 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W AT 02/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W AT 02/0000Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 92.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.2N 92.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.7N 92.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.1N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.1N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 91.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011
SATELLITE...SURFACE...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT IS DEFINED ENOUGH TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL REGION
STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS
LARGE ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE THE INITIAL MOTION
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE NHC TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0000Z 26.6N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 27.5N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 28.2N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 28.7N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 30.1N 92.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 31.1N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
0000 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W AT 02/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W AT 02/0000Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.4W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 92.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.2N 92.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.7N 92.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.1N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.1N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 91.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011
SATELLITE...SURFACE...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT IS DEFINED ENOUGH TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL REGION
STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS
LARGE ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE THE INITIAL MOTION
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE NHC TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0000Z 26.6N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 27.5N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 28.2N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 28.7N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 30.1N 92.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 31.1N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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CYCLONE MIKE
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
- Location: Gonzales, LA
Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Doesn't look like the NHC is going with any kind of move towards the coast then get pushed back south then loop in the gulf back into land initially. Wonder if that will change.
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NHC looks a good deal too fast for it to go inland, esp if the models are right tonight.
If it does take longer then that intensity will almost certainly be too low.
If it does take longer then that intensity will almost certainly be too low.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
NHC has this storm moving NNW then turning NE......hmm...
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Annie Oakley
- Category 5
- Posts: 1103
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- Location: Texas
Re:
Dave wrote:Next Scheduled Mission...
FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT
Will need help on this one due to the hour. Anybody, everybody's welcome to take a mission.....we've got 7 set for tomorrow, plenty go go around. Thanks everyone!
That's 1 a.m. for the next one?
7 for tomorrow is a lot. I will try to be around and help out late afternoon into the evening and beyond. I will check in and see what's going on. I can't do graphics though....that it really high expertise. Love those graphics!
At any rate, it will be very interesting tomorrow.
Great job as usual Mod Dave............
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models
10kts of shear is not that much. It was what 30 yesterday and today. First intensity models runs are usually pretty conservative. I would think this sitting out in 90* waters for a few days with only 10kt shear it could very well get a lot stronger than what is being shown as of now.
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cycloneye
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Re:
bexar wrote:something's wrong with the NHC site, it doesn't show this system and it's still advisory 10 for Katia
Saved image.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
djmikey wrote:Saw the models! All have shifted East (again) GGGRRRR......
I give up....we're losing our battle Texas! LA....Have fun!
The 18Z gfs and nam seemed to head west. GFS had 1"-2"+ in SE TX and the NAM showed like 5".
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re:
KWT wrote:NHC looks a good deal too fast for it to go inland, esp if the models are right tonight.
If it does take longer then that intensity will almost certainly be too low.
KWT is there any model the NHC would have based this on that was showing it moving inland that direction and speed?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Refresh your browser?
saved first track
saved first track
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M a r k
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PTrackerLA
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northjaxpro
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Interesting that NHC has this coming inland on Saturday. Umm.. what a weekend this is going to be watching this unfold.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models
Unfortunately Rock you guys don't look to get much rain from this. Even though I'm sure you wouldn't want some 25"+ either though that Allison gave ya'll. I surely don't want the 15 or so were are forecast to get and that will probably end up being on the really conservative side. I wish I could send half of it your way. i know you guys were hoping and needing to get a good soaking from this.
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