ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

whats going BOOM? it is a mess....almost looks sheared apart. Looks worse than this morning...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

[mvtrucking]

Is it my eyes or is this system moving towards the north now?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

Actually, models becoming "less" keen on a potential recurve. There's a big difference compared with the latest run of computer models. Always follow the trends.

[somethingfunny]

Let's get this storm to develop a center before we start arguing about its' track, lol. Come on guys.

My amateur opinion? It's surrounded by dry air and it's still early for Cape Verde storms. I think it develops but it struggles, and it's more likely to be a tropical storm than it is to be anything else when it moves through the islands. Afterwards, we'll see what the trough and the ridge are doing and where 91L/Emily ends up being located. If it takes longer to develop, it will be further south and west than if it deepens quickly.

[jinftl]

This far out, and with the several hundred mile margin of error going out after 5 days, it is really the trends between the models, and between the model runs, that will be most telling at this point.

Without a center yet, a 50 or 100 mile difference in where an actual LLC develops could have major implications for future models runs....

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

Actually, models becoming "less" keen on a potential recurve. There's a big difference compared with the latest run of computer models. Always follow the trends.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

Sorry, but I hate the word recurve when it's a potentially significant problem to PR, Dominican Republic, Haiti and possibly the Bahama's.

Recurve should be used when it's forecast to curve out to sea without impacting any land.


Besides, I don't know how you get that based on the 3 graphics posted above.

I thought that too a couple of pages back. but i got corrected or so it seemed and apparently when it doesnt affect any land masses, it is called a fish, and when it recurves, it heads out to sea. idk its confusing now. besides lets not forget about Bermuda, but yeah i get ya.

[ROCK]

so who is saying it wont make a caribbean cruise? who is all for recurve?

heres an outlier for you........

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

['CaneFreak]

And where is the evidence of shear if I might ask? JUST curious...that's all

whats going BOOM? it is a mess....almost looks sheared apart. Looks worse than this morning...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

[TwisterFanatic]

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

Sorry, but I hate the word recurve when it's a potentially significant problem to PR, Dominican Republic, Haiti and possibly the Bahama's.

Recurve should be used when it's forecast to curve out to sea without impacting any land.


Besides, I don't know how you get that based on the 3 graphics posted above.

I thought that too a couple of pages back. but i got corrected or so it seemed and apparently when it doesnt affect any land masses, it is called a fish, and when it recurves, it heads out to sea. idk its confusing now. besides lets not forget about Bermuda, but yeah i get ya.

Yea, I know, that's just something that's always bugged me.

[Evil Jeremy]

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

Actually, models becoming "less" keen on a potential recurve. There's a big difference compared with the latest run of computer models. Always follow the trends.

GFS trended way east, with a faster recurve, than the previous run. Lets see what the rest of the 00z models do.

Models getting more and more keen on the recurve solution, has been the case for the past 48 hours.

Sorry, but I hate the word recurve when it's a potentially significant problem to PR, Dominican Republic, Haiti and possibly the Bahama's.

Recurve should be used when it's forecast to curve out to sea without impacting any land.


Besides, I don't know how you get that based on the 3 graphics posted above.

Again, what you are talking about is a "fish" system, one that affects no land, only the fishes. A recurve is... well... anything that recurves!

[HurricaneWarning92]

so who is saying it wont make a caribbean cruise? who is all for recurve?

heres an outlier for you........

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Lmao. that would prove a lot of people wrong since it almost seems like it is heading towards Cuba or the western Caribbean.

[ROCK]

And where is the evidence of shear if I might ask? JUST curious...that's all

whats going BOOM? it is a mess....almost looks sheared apart. Looks worse than this morning...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

"looks like" I can read shear maps.. ..it has become elongated again and stretched out...convection to the SW...looks more impressive...

[ROCK]

so who is saying it wont make a caribbean cruise? who is all for recurve?

heres an outlier for you........

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Lmao. that would prove a lot of people wrong since it almost seems like it is heading towards Cuba or the western Caribbean.

some people never learn.... NOGAPS is a crappy model sure but it has followed the EURO thus far....

[dwsqos2]

0Z gfs was a bit weaker than previous runs.

[HurricaneWarning92]

lol im still confused cause a fish would also "recurve" out to sea... but who knows. lets just drop this discussion altogether and get back in topic.

[TwisterFanatic]

Wouldn't be surprised if the NHC drops it to 80% next update. Kinda messy right now, the longer it stays like this the less likely it's pulled northward.

['CaneFreak]

Sorry, but what I see is a weak anticyclone slowly moving over the top of this thing...and I can read a shear map believe it or not...it is still sitting in 5 to 10 knots of shear near the center...

And where is the evidence of shear if I might ask? JUST curious...that's all

whats going BOOM? it is a mess....almost looks sheared apart. Looks worse than this morning...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

"looks like" I can read shear maps.. ..it has become elongated again and stretched out...convection to the SW...looks more impressive...

[shaggy]

Well this one hasn't taken off as quickly as its earlier appearance would have suggested. Still think we get Emily out of this but it still has alot of work to do.

GFS has been consistent with its out to sea forecast and other models have shifted closer to that solution so it has to be given quite a bit of attention as the main scenario. However we will get better data ingested once the gulfstreams start flying and that may or may not change things up.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Wouldn't be surprised if the NHC drops it to 80% next update. Kinda messy right now, the longer it stays like this the less likely it's pulled northward.

Like mvtrucking said, isnt it going more northward?

[Evil Jeremy]

Wouldn't be surprised if the NHC drops it to 80% next update. Kinda messy right now, the longer it stays like this the less likely it's pulled northward.

It's still likely to get pulled north, how much is the question.

Anyways, my guess is that they stick to 90% for continuity.