ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Caribwxgirl]

Welcome Caribwxgirl to Storm2K!

Thank you

[GCANE]

That mid-level dry slot to the west appears to be working down into the boundary layer and cutting off in-feed from the ITCZ on 93L's south flank.

Not looking good for 93L. Would be surprised if deep convection fires off over the next ~12 hrs.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 24:

And I have to go for sure this time.

[Extratropical94]

Had time to do another image. Through OB 22.

Hi newbie here can you explain this image to me please

Hi Caribwxgirl and welcome to this board.
The image shows a satellite image of this system (Invest 93L) in Google Earth and a couple of wind barbs (the coloured flags).
Those wind measurements derive from a so called reconnaissance aircraft that flies through a storm at a very low level (a few hundred meters) to get information on the wind speed, dew points, air pressure and wind direction. This helps the National Hurricane Center when it comes to issuing advisories or storm warnings because they need accurate data.
The colour scale at the top left shows which colour matches which wind speed (in knots).
And the big L in the middle is the assumed center position of the system.
I hope I could help out, if you have another question then don't hesitate to ask

By the way, the numbers that are posted here are the raw data from the aircraft.

Observation 24, the plane is ascending and heading home as there isn't any sign of a low level circulation:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171906
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 24 20110817
185700 1546N 07630W 9773 00291 0106 +235 -057 074021 022 015 002 00
185730 1547N 07630W 9772 00292 0107 +235 -055 075021 023 019 001 00
185800 1549N 07630W 9781 00283 0106 +235 -060 081019 021 007 005 03
185830 1550N 07628W 9765 00298 0106 +235 -073 081017 018 023 001 03
185900 1549N 07627W 9776 00288 0105 +235 -077 081017 018 025 002 00
185930 1549N 07625W 9771 00292 0104 +234 -078 078017 018 024 001 00
190000 1548N 07623W 9778 00285 0105 +234 -075 078016 017 025 000 03
190030 1548N 07622W 9767 00295 0104 +234 -070 078017 018 025 000 00
190100 1548N 07620W 9771 00291 0103 +233 -060 076017 018 026 002 00
190130 1547N 07618W 9777 00285 0103 +235 -056 081018 018 025 002 03
190200 1547N 07616W 9777 00284 0102 +234 -070 080018 019 026 002 03
190230 1547N 07615W 9729 00326 0103 +228 -079 078018 021 025 001 00
190300 1546N 07613W 9249 00787 0123 +210 -084 073021 022 /// /// 03
190330 1546N 07611W 8699 01313 0121 +188 -091 069020 021 /// /// 03
190400 1545N 07610W 8182 01842 0121 +165 -105 068021 021 /// /// 03
190430 1545N 07608W 7810 02238 0118 +145 -124 059017 019 /// /// 03
190500 1545N 07607W 7549 02518 0114 +128 -152 054014 014 /// /// 03
190530 1545N 07607W 7549 02518 0116 +112 -183 050016 017 /// /// 03
190600 1544N 07603W 7027 03124 0119 +094 -195 043014 015 023 000 03
190630 1544N 07601W 6962 03199 0119 +086 -201 048015 015 021 001 00
$$

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like 93l is beginning to get it's act together. Here is the link. I would think that at the next TWO they will up the percentages.

[Typhoon_Willie]

And I just recently passed 1000 posts! Yipppeee!

[Extratropical94]

If you want to know more about how to read the aircraft recon data,
then you might either want to check out http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ for already decoded data
or look at this tutorial on storm2k: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603

[Caribwxgirl]

Thanks Extratropical

[GCANE]

Jamaica and DR are starting to fire off afternoon thunderstorms.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

This could help to moisten the dry slot.

Need to see how this shakes out this afternoon and overnight.

I think this is the only thing holding 93L back.

Structurally it is good with an anti-cyclone, poleward outflow channel ready, and a good mid-level PV anomaly.

[ozonepete]

That mid-level dry slot to the west appears to be working down into the boundary layer and cutting off in-feed from the ITCZ on 93L's south flank.

Not looking good for 93L. Would be surprised if deep convection fires off over the next ~12 hrs.

But on the other hand, the dry air is gradually dropping in coverage and it will soon be much less of an issue. I think you're right about 12 hours or so. After that, IF the dry air slot keeps diminishing, there isn't too much holding it back before it interacts with CA.

edited to take image loop out.

[dwsqos2]

1:50 pm SE ( 146 deg ) 15.9 kts
1:40 pm SSE ( 158 deg ) 14.4 kts
1:30 pm SSE ( 150 deg ) 15.2 kts
1:20 pm SSE ( 152 deg ) 14.4 kts
1:10 pm SSE ( 153 deg ) 13.8 kts
1:00 pm SSE ( 150 deg ) 13.6 kts

SSE winds from buoy 42058.

[RL3AO]

Recon ever go up to 850mb and see where the MLC is since there clearly isn't one at the surface? They should IMO but I guess its a LL invest.

EDIT: Maybe they are now or are going home.

[Extratropical94]

Well they are up at 700mb now. They have to go back through the system anyway so why not give the MLC a try?
Edit: Only for one HDOB, now they are heading back to the base.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 25, obviously not at cruising altitude but at 700mb:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171916
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 25 20110817
190700 1543N 07559W 6964 03194 0117 +085 -212 049014 015 021 002 03
190730 1542N 07557W 6982 03169 0117 +085 -224 046013 014 022 001 00
190800 1541N 07555W 6971 03181 0118 +084 -233 052010 010 022 001 03
190830 1539N 07552W 6958 03196 0117 +084 -240 042015 016 020 000 03
190900 1537N 07551W 6965 03190 0118 +084 -244 046015 016 016 001 03
190930 1537N 07548W 6973 03177 0118 +080 -236 045014 015 021 001 00
191000 1536N 07545W 6973 03178 0118 +082 -230 045015 016 020 000 00
191030 1535N 07543W 6971 03181 0118 +082 -238 046015 015 021 000 00
191100 1535N 07540W 6978 03170 0117 +084 -243 045015 015 019 000 00
191130 1534N 07538W 6974 03175 0115 +085 -247 050015 015 021 000 00
191200 1534N 07535W 6975 03174 0118 +081 -248 054015 016 018 000 00
191230 1533N 07533W 6974 03176 0118 +080 -246 053017 017 020 000 00
191300 1533N 07531W 6972 03176 0121 +080 -240 056017 020 022 001 00
191330 1532N 07528W 6966 03189 0117 +084 -238 059014 014 022 000 00
191400 1532N 07526W 6963 03190 0122 +080 -239 054016 016 022 000 00
191430 1532N 07524W 6974 03176 0120 +082 -240 061015 016 022 003 00
191500 1531N 07522W 6972 03182 0129 +075 -234 049013 015 033 003 00
191530 1531N 07520W 6954 03203 0123 +079 -232 067014 015 032 006 00
191600 1531N 07518W 6953 03207 0119 +082 -232 073016 017 034 004 00
191630 1531N 07516W 6976 03176 0122 +080 -236 068017 017 031 003 03
$$

[Extratropical94]

Observation 26, now they've seen enough, finally ascending:

000
URNT15 KNHC 171927
AF300 01FFA INVEST HDOB 26 20110817
191700 1531N 07515W 6970 03181 0138 +066 -238 066015 015 031 006 03
191730 1531N 07513W 6967 03183 0153 +055 -240 066012 014 032 005 00
191800 1531N 07511W 6966 03186 0134 +069 -242 089010 011 031 004 00
191830 1531N 07509W 6965 03184 0125 +077 -246 104012 014 028 001 00
191900 1532N 07507W 6966 03188 0132 +072 -251 109015 016 029 004 03
191930 1532N 07505W 6980 03172 0125 +080 -254 095013 014 /// /// 03
192000 1534N 07504W 6989 03161 0120 +082 -261 098013 016 /// /// 03
192030 1535N 07502W 6807 03381 0131 +065 -260 114017 020 /// /// 03
192100 1536N 07501W 6441 03849 0120 +053 -266 126016 017 /// /// 03
192130 1535N 07459W 6245 04099 0119 +036 -274 121016 019 /// /// 03
192200 1535N 07457W 5987 04418 0100 +019 -279 111018 019 /// /// 03
192230 1535N 07455W 5793 04684 0093 +001 -282 105019 019 /// /// 03
192300 1534N 07454W 5620 04944 0101 -012 -285 093018 018 /// /// 03
192330 1534N 07452W 5461 05174 0257 -022 -289 095018 018 /// /// 03
192400 1533N 07451W 5303 05408 0272 -034 -293 102018 019 /// /// 03
192430 1533N 07449W 5158 05628 0287 -044 -297 101018 018 /// /// 03
192500 1532N 07447W 5019 05851 0300 -055 -300 095017 018 /// /// 03
192530 1532N 07445W 4899 06036 0311 -067 -302 096016 016 /// /// 03
192600 1531N 07443W 4788 06212 0322 -071 -305 100016 016 /// /// 03
192630 1530N 07442W 4681 06389 0334 -078 -308 100017 017 021 001 03
$$

[RL3AO]

Very nice MLC on vis loops.

[Extratropical94]

I know it's kinda OT but the TWO with 93L reminds me of the one we had with 94L in mid-June when many of us thought that the orange blob would become Arlene. What happened? -> It fizzled out
And I can't get rid of the feeling that this invest belongs to the same group of teasers, but this is only my personal thinking about it...

[Caribwxgirl]

:spam: I know it's kinda OT but the TWO with 93L reminds me of the one we had with 94L in mid-June when many of us thought that the orange blob would become Arlene. What happened? -> It fizzled out
And I can't get rid of the feeling that this invest belongs to the same group of teasers, but this is only my personal thinking about it...

Well so far this one really has been a big tease already...it totally fizzled and then suddenly came back and from one minute to the next its like you just can't tell. I am sort of concerned because even no name ie; TW's have caused severe flooding here, particularly when they pass to the south of us for some reason, even when we are told it should not be a bother to us

[ozonepete]

Appears to be moving a little north of due west now. That would take the center just north of Honduras rather than onshore.

[fci]

Welcome Caribwxgirl to Storm2K!

Thank you

Welcome and since you are in Jamaica, please try to keep us aprised on conditions there with this system and others.
If and when there is a threat, a thread is set up in the Active Storms Forum for residents to report conditions.
It would be great if you can post there and it also gives you a chance to see how others are faring.
S2K is a wonderful resource to understand what is going on and the Pro Mets and informed amatuers are great sources for info that you might not get elsewhere
Welcome!