ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Hmm last few recon passes don't look all that impressive wind shift wise, maybe recon just hit an eddy last pass through or something?

Yeah, it's not there yet. It is definitely not organized enough to upgrade in my opinion. Also the longer is remains an open wave the better it is for all who could be dealing with this system down the road. May only be a big rain maker. Its a shame it's not headed to Texas.

[KWT]

KWT, do you think Irene or depression by tomorrow morning? or do you think it will wait until tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night?

If winds are anything like they are right now it'll 100% be Irene, but when it gets upgraded is a totally different matter.

Do expect a Near 100% if they don't upgrade it in the enxt few hours.

[brunota2003]

Looks like Recon will be done shortly...per the TCPOD...they were only supposed to be out on station until 5:30 pm. Question is, with it so close to being a TC, will the next flight be a go? Or will it slip to another invest mission tomorrow, as stated in the POD?

[ConvergenceZone]

KWT, do you think Irene or depression by tomorrow morning? or do you think it will wait until tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night?

If winds are anything like they are right now it'll 100% be Irene, but when it gets upgraded is a totally different matter.

Do expect a Near 100% if they don't upgrade it in the enxt few hours.

Yea, it doesn't look anymore organized now than it did this morning, but know knows, they might still pull the upgrade trigger before tomorrow is over

[chrisjslucia]

Martinique : Rain but no winds. The weather report is late so we are always in yellow alert.
Chris: Do you have some news in sainte lucia?

Madinina, I've just checked again and no weather report at the local Saint Lucia met office site since yesterday at 6 pm. The three day forecast is for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday....
But given the location being highlighted here of the centre of the system and the wind speeds from the recon, I think we are both due to get some strong winds and plenty of rain tonight as there doesn't seem much movement to the north. Maybe Gusty has some more up to date information?

Here are the latest news from Meteo-France Martinica my friend:
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_mart.php
You can also read this weather forecast for Martinica given Meteo-France Martinica : http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf

The time for the next few hours on Martinique

Animated radar is updated every 15 mins, the satellite animation is updated hourly and forecast bulletin at least every 3 hours during the day.

Weather France Martinique, good evening.

5: 30 Pm the level of vigilance is yellow because of heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Time does not change in the beginning of the evening, there will still be low rain to moderate sometimes accompanied by thunderstorms. Largest storm-storm worsening is expected during night.

Next newsletter at 20: 30.

Merci beaucoup mon ami. Bon Chance ce soir

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 202203
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 32 20110820
215330 1532N 05758W 9590 00424 0069 +219 +083 083023 023 /// /// 03
215400 1532N 05759W 9589 00425 0068 +218 +083 082022 022 027 002 03
215430 1531N 05801W 9587 00425 0068 +219 +083 070020 021 027 002 00
215500 1530N 05803W 9597 00419 0070 +220 +081 067021 022 028 000 00
215530 1529N 05804W 9595 00419 0070 +218 +082 063021 023 029 000 00
215600 1528N 05806W 9592 00423 0069 +220 +082 063020 021 026 001 03
215630 1526N 05807W 9590 00427 0072 +220 +081 057019 019 026 000 00
215700 1525N 05808W 9600 00418 0073 +222 +082 054017 018 022 004 03
215730 1523N 05809W 9597 00422 0073 +222 +084 047015 015 022 000 00
215800 1521N 05809W 9597 00421 0073 +222 +085 047015 016 023 000 00
215830 1519N 05810W 9597 00420 0073 +223 +086 049015 016 022 002 00
215900 1517N 05811W 9597 00421 0072 +224 +087 051015 016 023 001 00
215930 1515N 05811W 9595 00421 0072 +225 +087 056014 015 023 001 00
220000 1513N 05812W 9597 00420 0071 +225 +088 050014 014 023 000 00
220030 1511N 05812W 9596 00420 0072 +225 +088 048014 015 021 001 03
220100 1509N 05813W 9596 00421 0072 +225 +090 046014 015 020 000 00
220130 1507N 05814W 9598 00420 0072 +226 +090 052014 014 019 001 00
220200 1505N 05814W 9597 00421 0073 +225 +090 048014 015 020 000 00
220230 1503N 05815W 9599 00419 0073 +224 +090 049014 014 021 000 00
220300 1501N 05816W 9597 00421 0073 +220 +090 049013 014 021 001 00
$$
;

[msbee]

Martinique : Rain but no winds. The weather report is late so we are always in yellow alert.
Chris: Do you have some news in sainte lucia?

Madinina, I've just checked again and no weather report at the local Saint Lucia met office site since yesterday at 6 pm. The three day forecast is for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday....
But given the location being highlighted here of the centre of the system and the wind speeds from the recon, I think we are both due to get some strong winds and plenty of rain tonight as there doesn't seem much movement to the north. Maybe Gusty has some more up to date information?

Here are the latest news from Meteo-France Martinica my friend:
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_mart.php
You can also read this weather forecast for Martinica given Meteo-France Martinica : http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf

The time for the next few hours on Martinique

Animated radar is updated every 15 mins, the satellite animation is updated hourly and forecast bulletin at least every 3 hours during the day.

Weather France Martinique, good evening.

5: 30 Pm the level of vigilance is yellow because of heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Time does not change in the beginning of the evening, there will still be low rain to moderate sometimes accompanied by thunderstorms. Largest storm-storm worsening is expected during night.

Next newsletter at 20: 30.

Gusty, how is the weather there right now?
Currently we have light rain showers with some gusty wind and thunder in the distance.
At 5 PM the met office here reported winds ENE 16 MPH

[tolakram]

[brunota2003]

Ok...apparently Recon has enough fuel to do yet another U-turn and they are heading to the SSW now for another pass it looks like.

[tolakram]

Yep, one more try to close it off.

[KWT]

Lets see how this pass does and whether they get any closer to actually closing the system off or not. My best guess is its not quite there yet, but its fairly close.

[brunota2003]

Here is that RECCO decoded by the way:

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 21:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 21:51Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.4N 58.0W
Location: 193 miles (310 km) between the NNE and NE (34°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 450 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 90° at 22 knots (From the E at ~ 25.3 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 22°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 8°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1007 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 90° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 24 knots (~ 27.6mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

N outbound

[Gustywind]

Madinina hope that these infos can help you De rien merci pour le soutien, j'espère que tout ira pour le mieux. Hey guy, ti mal tchimbé rèd pa moli!

[SouthDadeFish]

Center estimate as of 21:45Z

[brunota2003]

South West winds here:

000
URNT15 KNHC 202213
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 33 20110820
220330 1459N 05816W 9597 00422 0073 +222 +089 048012 012 019 000 00
220400 1457N 05817W 9598 00419 0073 +222 +089 050012 012 020 000 00
220430 1455N 05817W 9597 00421 0073 +221 +089 046012 013 017 001 03
220500 1453N 05817W 9600 00418 0072 +224 +089 044008 009 018 001 03
220530 1451N 05816W 9598 00418 0071 +223 +088 051007 009 018 000 03
220600 1450N 05815W 9595 00421 0071 +221 +086 050007 008 018 001 00
220630 1449N 05814W 9598 00419 0071 +219 +085 051008 009 020 000 00
220700 1448N 05812W 9596 00420 0071 +222 +084 064006 008 019 000 03
220730 1446N 05811W 9591 00425 0070 +223 +084 054007 008 019 001 00
220800 1445N 05810W 9594 00421 0070 +221 +085 051007 008 016 001 00
220830 1443N 05809W 9603 00413 0069 +225 +085 035007 008 016 000 03
220900 1442N 05808W 9608 00409 0070 +225 +086 030005 006 017 000 00
220930 1441N 05806W 9604 00413 0071 +225 +088 038003 004 012 002 03
221000 1440N 05805W 9613 00406 0071 +230 +089 048000 001 016 001 00
221030 1439N 05803W 9605 00412 0070 +230 +090 198003 004 016 000 00
221100 1439N 05801W 9605 00412 0071 +226 +091 229002 003 016 000 00
221130 1438N 05759W 9604 00414 0071 +225 +091 215003 004 016 000 00
221200 1437N 05758W 9602 00416 0072 +225 +091 209004 005 015 000 03
221230 1436N 05756W 9607 00411 0073 +220 +091 209006 008 018 000 00
221300 1435N 05755W 9609 00411 0073 +223 +090 189008 009 014 000 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

This pass.. there is some SW and wsw winds.. so far

[tolakram]

Well .......

[brunota2003]

Definitely a wind shift there...just very weak.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks halfway decent to me.