ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

The wind shear continues to decrease.



Tropicwatch

[lebron23]

Seems like the timing of TD 13 turning north and east has to be perfect or else....it would hit close to the TX/LA border if not east texas..

[ROCK]

thats because its pulling in an anticyclone from the west...you get that on top of it then game on....still though it is disorganized attm....

[supercane]

what are the odds of this thing going under RI?

From the latest SHIPS output, less than climatologic probabilities:

Code: Select all

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011   THIRTEEN 09/02/11  00 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  2.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  17.3 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  20.3 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  72.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 126.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  70.0 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 111.0 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

[Jevo]

12z wind forecast... heheh good old GFDL trying to set itself apart once again... How the NHC didnt forecast everything to become a Cat 5 when the GFDL was the primary model is beyond me



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[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 13, 2011090200, , BEST, 0, 266N, 914W, 30, 1007, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[ROCK]

already getting outflow boundary showers into SE Texas.....small tstorm moving into Galveston from the east...

[sphelps8681]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Models from early shifted more west with the lastest SFWMD.

[underthwx]

already getting outflow boundary showers into SE Texas.....small tstorm moving into Galveston from the east...

im looking at the same thing Rock...moving towards B county?

[lebron23]

Personally i think the NHC track is a bit too far east... and too fast.

[South Texas Storms]

It still looks like the center is moving W-WNW. I don't see the NW motion that the NHC sees? What do yall think?

[underthwx]

Personally i think the NHC track is a bit too far east... and too fast.

agree

[LAwxrgal]

Dang. This thing popped up out of nowhere. And right in our backyard.
Hope it stays weak tho, we sure can use the rain (just not a lot of it at once, which we will probably get with this system).
We had a big marsh fire out in New Orleans East, prompted air quality alerts and had folks sick for days.

[Portastorm]

already getting outflow boundary showers into SE Texas.....small tstorm moving into Galveston from the east...

im looking at the same thing Rock...moving towards B county?

I dunno ... I'm looking at water vapor and it looks like an upper level vort max is rotating east to west and that is what is causing your showers. Of course, I'm no pro met so I could easily be wrong.

[GCANE]

Shear dropping fast.

Judging from WV loop and colder cold-tops, seems like it is building an anti-cyclone over it.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ft.html

[lebron23]

It still looks like the center is moving W-WNW. I don't see the NW motion that the NHC sees? What do yall think?

Agree. 00Z XTRP has it into Matagorda bay if you extrp the motion. thats a a W-WNW movement

[ROCK]

that upper low to the NW aint doing it any favors....

[djmikey]

Model question.... Why does the XTRP never bend or curve? Why is it always a straight line? Does it reresent something diff? Thanks!

[Portastorm]

Model question.... Why does the XTRP never bend or curve? Why is it always a straight line? Does it reresent something diff? Thanks!

The acronym stands for Extrapolation ... it is essentially a straight line drawn from the storm movement. It is not a computer model.

[djmikey]

already getting outflow boundary showers into SE Texas.....small tstorm moving into Galveston from the east...

Yeah...had that same band about an 2 hours ago here in Beaumont! Rained HARD for 30secs...then onward it went...lol