ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

Where does the CMC start?

All 12z runs thus far have started a good 1 degree too far south, that would make a big difference in tertms of whether it tracks over Hispaniola or not.

General trend looks like towards Hispaniola...though ECM has been going constantly close to the north of the island.

[PTrackerLA]

Yikes Ivan. I'm afraid if this one scoots south of the big islands someone along the GOM will have a MAJOR problem on their hands.

[northjaxpro]

Well for the last three days we have been watching model runs that bring this ashore somewhere along the southeast coast of the US. This time of year without some serious land interaction or shear issues this storm could be a nightmare. A track north of the islands and the east coast might be looking at a Hugo. South of the islands and crossing Cuba and we might get a Charley. I hate these Cape Verde storms.

Overall, I think your reasoning is pretty good. Should 97L develop, that track is going to be so critical. If the entity manages to miss the islands to the north, and avoids any shear and the ridging kicks in as forecasted, then I really would get concerned of a potential major tropical cyclone churning in the SW Atlantic. But, it could interact with the islands which may keep it in a weakened state for awhile and track farther west into the GOM. One thing is apparent with the consistency of the models and that 97L impacting somewhere on the CONUS is increasing each day. Definitely our first potential serious threat for the CONUS this season.

[PTrackerLA]

Where does the CMC start?

All 12z runs thus far have started a good 1 degree too far south, that would make a big difference in tertms of whether it tracks over Hispaniola or not.

General trend looks like towards Hispaniola...though ECM has been going constantly close to the north of the island.

Does that even matter considering it's a global model and we don't even have a true center of circulation yet?

[caneseddy]

FWIW..12z GFS ensembles are in the Central Gulf

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif

[gboudx]

Make this 14 runs in a row!

Updated GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27

This is great work by you. I hope you can keep this up because it really helps show the consistency in summarized format vs comparing maps.

[USTropics]

I don't think you can really extract an exact path or intensity from the model runs this far out. It's more of taking a step back and looking at what the overall picture is, which in the case of the GFS model is a consistent U.S. threat. If you add in that the last runs of the Euro, the CMC, and the UKMET show a similar pattern, it becomes quite conceivable that we'll see a U.S. landfall. Where exactly this could eventually make landfall and of what strength is extremely questionable and indeterminable at this time given all the different elements (when/where this storm initializes, what effect dry air and land interaction will have, what ramification of an expected upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico will have, to name a few).

[Ivanhater]

Make this 14 runs in a row!

Updated GFS Runs:

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27

This is great work by you. I hope you can keep this up because it really helps show the consistency in summarized format vs comparing maps.

Have to give credit for Larrywx for starting this. I have been updating since yesterday afternoon. If I am away, someone please keep updating this!

[KWT]

Does that even matter considering it's a global model and we don't even have a true center of circulation yet?

Its not strong but there probably is at least a decent circulation, its probably a good bet that that feature is the LLC that is rotating...

Its not like there is no turning and the models are having to 'invent' a circulation so to speak and make a best guess, there is something out there already...just convection is way too tame and weak and the circulation isn't quite closed off.

Starting location IS going to important, it makes the difference between a strengthening hurricane over the Caribbean...a weak TD/TS over Hispaniola and being torn apart...or a strengthening hurricane, maybe major over the Bahamas...in terms of intensity its not just important, it's probably the only limiting factor past 120hrs.

A long way out but actually with this particular sort of track, fairly small difference actually do matter.

[Ivanhater]

Indeed....12z GFS Ensemble is over Western Cuba into the Central Gulf

[gatorcane]

06Z DGEX into South Florida/EGOM hitting a weakness.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

[gatorcane]

Note in that 12Z run, GFS and CMC are showing a more pronounced W to slightly WSW movement to commence over the next 2-3 days. Right now it is moving just north of due W at 280 degrees.

00Z ECMWF did not show this W or WSW movement so that could be a difference between the ECMWF showing a Bahamas/Florida/Eastern CONUS solution in the long-range.

[KWT]

Yeah thats a good spot Gatorcane, 12z GFS for example goes due west from where it is now. most of the ECM runs don't show that motion either.

GFS goes W, then WNW, then bends back a little again over Hispaniola/Cuba as it weakens before it feels the weakness and lifts out NNW.

[gatorcane]

How about how slow the GFS moves this system through the Greater Antilles.....it seems to just creep westward over the course of several days, just waiting for any kind of weakness to hit...so the ridge doesn't look to be very strong over the Western Atlantic towards the end of the run....just enough to keep it crawling westward

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

Note in that 12Z run, GFS and CMC are showing a more pronounced W to slightly WSW movement to commence over the next 2-3 days. Right now it is moving just north of due W at 280 degrees.

00Z ECMWF did not show this W or WSW movement so that could be a difference between the ECMWF showing a Bahamas/Florida/Eastern CONUS solution in the long-range.

IMO, it's all about Hispaniola, latitude adjustments now could make a big difference down the road. 97L misses Hispaniola, IMO, 97L bombs out in the SE Bahamas.

[Vortex]

First runs of the GFDL/HWRF will be out shortly..

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian then moves NNW out of the Caribbean toward SE Florida

[KWT]

00Z ECMWF did not show this W or WSW movement so that could be a difference between the ECMWF showing a Bahamas/Florida/Eastern CONUS solution in the long-range.

IMO, it's all about Hispaniola, latitude adjustments now could make a big difference down the road. 97L misses Hispaniola, IMO, 97L bombs out in the SE Bahamas.[/quote]

Yep thats exactly what I've been saying on this thread, the systems potenial strength down the line is pretty much in the hands of Hispaniola and the exacts of the track.

ECM will be out soon enough as well.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS Ensemble mean is showing one hell of a signature in the Gulf..heading generally toward Pensacola

[KWT]

Yeah thats an impressive presentation!

Also can see a reflection at 264hrs off Florida but the best presentation over the gulf.