ATL: PHILIPPE - Post - Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

28/2345 UTC 17.1N 40.4W T2.5/2.5 PHILIPPE -- Atlantic

An increase from last update.

[rainstorm]

JB: phil will move west next 5 days, plus some bonus tweets


Joe Bastardi
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Caribbean should supply us with interesting end game to hurricane season next few weeks. Philippe will turn west next 5 days
53 minutes ago
»
Joe Bastardi
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
1028 mb rulle before Oct 15 at HSE may be challenged next week.. storm should form within 5 days south of 30 north, between 70 and 85 w

[CrazyC83]

AL, 17, 2011092900, , BEST, 0, 171N, 404W, 40, 1005, TS

[HurricaneWarning92]

Models are for the most part in agreement with a turn to the west but then they go crazy and have it all over the place...

[AdamFirst]

As AJC3 mentioned in the discussion thread Phillippe is facing up to 70 knots of shear in that direction. Needless to say survival looks unlikely

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011

PHILIPPE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...HOWEVER DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF PHILIPPE
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO CUT-OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
NOW CALLS FOR SOME MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...IN AN AREA OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND THE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS.
PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.4N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 18.3N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 19.8N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 21.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 23.8N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z 24.5N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Philippe was going to be a minimal TS on Thursday and stay that way for 72 hours. But how things have changed at 11 PM ,he now is going to produce some more ACE units.

5 PM:

INIT 28/2100Z 17.0N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 17.9N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 19.3N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 20.9N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.1N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 23.6N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1800Z 25.0N 56.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

11 PM:

INIT 29/0300Z 17.4N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 18.3N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 19.8N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 21.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 23.8N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z 24.5N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[Macrocane]

Several models have been consistently intensifying Philippe and the latest advisory finally calls for that possibility.

[wx4me]

Ok I have a question (hope its not a dumb one)...

Ok the track for Opelia is going North, while the track for Philippe is going West right "through" and straight across the track that Ophelia took.. How and/or why.. Why would one system get pulled north as quickly and as strong as Ophelia did/was, but Philippe dosent.. It instead just heads west.. Why would one Get pulled north and one not... When they are or will be in the same "general" area.. Thanks

[lilybeth]

I've also been wondering about both of the storms' tracks. I am also wondering if Phillipe could re-strengthen and build up in the Caribbean since it looks like it is headed that way, but will be only a depression by the time it gets there (if anything is left at all beyond that I guess)?

[bexar]

If Philippe survives the next 5 days, perhaps it could pull an Irene (2005)?




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wx4me]

(I posted this a few posts back, but it ended up being the last post on the page, so a new page has started now and I was afraid the post would be lost and forgotten lol.. So im just reposting it... Thanks!!!)


Ok I have a question (hope its not a dumb one)...

Ok the track for Opelia is going North, while the track for Philippe is going West right "through" and straight across the track that Ophelia took.. How and/or why.. Why would one system get pulled north as quickly and as strong as Ophelia did/was, but Philippe dosent.. It instead just heads west.. Why would one Get pulled north and one not... When they are or will be in the same "general" area.. Thanks

[Macrocane]

Ok I will try my best although I'm not a pro met

From Ophelia's latest discussion:
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON
OPHELIA PICKING UP SOME FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

From Philippe's latest discussion:
PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC

So, Ophelia is moving in the periphery of one ridge and Philippe in the periphery of another one, between the ridges there's a weakness right now. Ophelia is expected to move on the left side of the western ridge for the next few days, later in the period the weakness will be replaced by a stronger ridge that will move Philippe in a more west track.

[wx4me]

The models are in PERFECT agreement tonight on what Philippe will do

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE
BALL OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS. SINCE THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. UW-CIMSS
AND SHIPS ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DIAGNOSE CLOSE TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD LOW NEAR 17N46W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME
INTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...PHILIPPE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES
AFFECTED BY EXTREMELY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT
LOW BY DAY 4.

SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION THE CENTER IS LOCATED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER
UNCERTAIN 300/11. PHILIPPE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.8N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.6N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 19.9N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 21.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 22.3N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 23.9N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 24.5N 56.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0600Z 24.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011

IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF THE POSSIBLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF
PHILIPPE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A CIRCULAR BALL OF CONVECTION.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
TECHNIQUES ARE 45-55 KT...BUT THE LATEST FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 35-45
KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 40 KT. PHILIPPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...BUT WITH SUCH AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY MUCH...IF AT ALL. BY 48
HOURS...PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BE BLASTED BY 30 KT OF NORTHERLY
SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND THAT SHOULD
INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. ODDLY ENOUGH...MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS
EITHER SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE OR VERY LITTLE WEAKENING
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS WHY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING EVEN IN THE FACE OF SEEMINGLY
HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. IF PHILIPPE CAN SURVIVE ITS
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO DO...THEN IT MAY BE
ABLE TO HOLD ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN UPPER-LEVEL WINDS RELAX
A BIT BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS.

PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AND IS MOVING 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT. AS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...A SECOND
STRONGER MID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD FORCE PHILIPPE ON A MORE WESTWARD
COURSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TVCA MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
SWITCHES TO A BIT SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS FROM 96-120 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS NOT APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 18.6N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 19.7N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 21.1N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 22.3N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 24.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 24.5N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 24.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[KUEFC]

Latest GFS bringing this righ5t onto floridas doorstep in 7 days, surely not? Specially with all the unfavourable conditions that far west?

[KUEFC]

Oops sorry, was looking at the nogaps, GFS weakens it before florida and has it heading NE

[warmer]

Is this going to interact with Ophelia?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Why not going the same direction?

My answer:
Timing. The atmosphere is not static, and the synoptics that each storm has in front of it are different during the times that each is in the "same spot", but at different times.

For Ophelia, there is an opening to head N/NE along the periphery of a ridge. -like an open door in the middle of a wall that she can pass through.
For Phillipe, when he is there, the opening is expected to have closed up, since 2 ridges (one to the east, and one to west) have essentially gotten smooshed up against eachother, creating one big ridge that spans the previous opening. -door is closed.

Since the flow around ridges is clockwise, storms follow the periphery of the ridge in a clockwise pattern. For Ophelia, that periphery-hugging of the eastern ridge will cause her to continue up its western edge and then to the NE. For Phillipe, he'll be traveling along the southern edge of a much broader ridge, and forced to go west along its long periphery.

Eventually, either a front will interrupt his progress west by causing a massive break up of the combined ridges and a weakness (forcing an open door to the north), or the combined ridges will weaken and separate back into 2 separate entities again, creating between them that he can travel along the periphery of the eastern ridge and through it to the North as well.

It is possible, though highly unlikely based on climate history, that the 2 ridges will remain strong and together, and no front will dip low enough to disrupt that, and sheer will remain weak enough, to allow Phillipe to maintain strength enough to pose a tropical threat to south Florida, CA, or the western gulf. -but highly unlikely.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.