ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[deltadog03]

Cuba, may or may not keep her in check....I think most **generally** agree where this is likely headed, but man....the intensity forecast is going to be tough....I don't think Cuba would really weaken this thing that much....Obviously DR/Haiti would weaken it as well.....

[rockyman]

Keep in mind that with the projected angle of approach, Irene will have to "thread the needle" almost perfectly by hitting Florida on its "skinny end"...any deviation of 100 miles will cause Irene to miss the Peninsula altogether. The NHC 5 day average error is more than 100 miles. A Florida Peninsula hit is DEFINITELY not a done deal.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it takes the NHC track it'd do well to keep its TS status throughout...but I'd also be a little bit surprised if it died totally as well, conditions aloft look better then they did with say Emily for example which had some horrid shear to deal with.

Its a toughie make no mistake about it!

Small shift here or there makes all the difference.

Well, Florida should get some really rainy conditions out of it, even if there isn't much wind left....

[johngaltfla]

Folks, just my opinion, not a forecast, but since this is in "Herbert Box" territory, I would be especially vigilant in Florida.

Note that it's the "Hebert Box" you're referring to, named after NHC forecaster Paul Hebert from New Iberia, LA. It's not the "Herbert Box". And the Hebert box is not a forecasting tool. It is merely an observations that most storms which have hit south Florida have passed through this region. The reverse is not necessarily true. That is, just because a storm passes through the Hebert Box does not mean it will be a threat to south Florida.

However, in this case, I think it is most definitely a threat to south Florida. Note that the NHC's track is remarkably close to that consensus graphic I posted a page or two back. I'm still concerned that the Euro ensembles and Canadian take it into the central Gulf vs. south Florida.

Sorry..typing way too fast today...and focused strongly on this storm...lots of typos on my part, I'm sure.

[KWT]

Or southward, missing Hispaniola and the mountainous part of Cuba.

Their intensity forecast relies on a really precise track, if you ask me.

Indeed, either side and you'll probably have a much different system, I have no doubt the NHC will flag that up in the discussion.

[gatorcane]

Cuba, may or may not keep her in check....I think most **generally** agree where this is likely headed, but man....the intensity forecast is going to be tough....I don't think Cuba would really weaken this thing that much....Obviously DR/Haiti would weaken it as well.....

Yeah and Cuba doesn't always weaken storms. Georges did not weaken over Cuba. I believe it actually strengthened.

It's disturbing both the GFS and ECMWF both strengthen this system (or at least not weakne it) while crossing over Cuba.

If this is a large system as it looks like it will be, Cuba probably won't be able to do much to it.

[brunota2003]

From the Discussion:

THE INITIAL VORTEX IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IRENE IS MOVING
OVER RATHER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
HISPANIOLA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND IS RATHER
CHALLENGING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF IRENE AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND
INTERACTION.

[ALhurricane]

Nobody should be surprised by a conservative intensity forecast. 50 miles difference in track will make all the difference in the world. It will be interesting to see how far north it gets before the trough lifts out and ridging begins to build back in from the east.

[johngaltfla]

And just so I don't look like a total idiot typing today, this is where the Hebert Box is located and why Floridians probably should pay close attention.

Thanks for catching my error wxman57 and thanks again for all the hard work you've done here over the years...

[northjaxpro]

Cuba, may or may not keep her in check....I think most **generally** agree where this is likely headed, but man....the intensity forecast is going to be tough....I don't think Cuba would really weaken this thing that much....Obviously DR/Haiti would weaken it as well.....

Eastern Cuba is rather mountainous which can disrupt the inner core some , although the mountian peaks in Eastern Cuba are not as tall as the mountains in Hispaniola.

[SFLcane]

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND IS RATHER
CHALLENGING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF IRENE AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND
INTERACTION.

[Tampa_God]

I think the NHC is being too modest here. Many of us were expecting a TS as well, but to be at 50 mph on it's first advisory I think many would had doubt. This morning, it didn't even look that good. And throughout the day, Irene got her act together, tightened, and this is what we have now. Conditions are almost perfect for RI with Irene. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane before tomorrow is over.

[shaggy]

Anyone know where the 18z intialized at versus the first official point of 14.9N and 58.5W?

[Ivanhater]

Nobody should be surprised by a conservative intensity forecast. 50 miles difference in track will make all the difference in the world. It will be interesting to see how far north it gets before the trough lifts out and ridging begins to build back in from the east.

I posted in the model thread the difference between the gfs model runs today..the angle is smoothing out further left after south Florida as the upper stream trough lifts out quicker and ridging builds in faster.

[KWT]

REally nice deep convection to the north of the circulation, its hard to imagine the center won't try to tuck into that deeper convection some point in the next 12hrs and strengthen from there...

The fact its blew up like that just after Dmin is abit of a worry as well...

[SouthDadeFish]

REally nice deep convection to the north of the circulation, its hard to imagine the center won't try to tuck into that deeper convection some point in the next 12hrs and strengthen from there...

The fact its blew up like that just after Dmin is abit of a worry as well...

I totally agree. Look at the beautiful cirrus outflow on the North side of the circulation:

[pricetag56]

I think the NHC is being too modest here. Many of us were expecting a TS as well, but to be at 50 mph on it's first advisory I think many would had doubt. This morning, it didn't even look that good. And throughout the day, Irene got her act together, tightened, and this is what we have now. Conditions are almost perfect for RI with Irene. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane before tomorrow is over.

thats a realistic possibility you just can never be certain how these storms will strengthen

[vbhoutex]

Nobody should be surprised by a conservative intensity forecast. 50 miles difference in track will make all the difference in the world. It will be interesting to see how far north it gets before the trough lifts out and ridging begins to build back in from the east.

Most definitely. That is what raises my concern for the N Gulf Coast. If the ridging builds in quick enough and/or the trough is flatter and/or further North than currently progged it could change things significantly.

[pricetag56]

[quote="KWT"]REally nice deep convection to the north of the circulation, its hard to imagine the center won't try to tuck into that deeper convection some point in the next 12hrs and strengthen from there...

The fact its blew up like that just after Dmin is abit of a worry as well...[/quote
ive been seeing this used a lot but what is Dmin and Dmax

[Aric Dunn]

yeah cant imagine that weak llc will stay there with all the inflow going into the convective burst.